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Author Topic: Roulette systems don't work  (Read 29583 times)

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McCoy

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #210 on: November 02, 2017, 06:53:43 PM »
Real is wrong to say that no matter what system we use we will necessarily lose, although of course he is correct about the house edge being unavoidable. Even bias wheel players can't avoid it. The house edge in most sports bets is well over 10%, far more than roulette, and yet significant numbers of punters make a consistent profit, including me. I know the odds are not fixed in sports like they are in roulette, but that isn't important, it just means you have to focus your attention on the selection process. And he clearly doesn't know what the gambler's fallacy actually is, he just accuses anyone who uses a system of falling for it.

Quote
Real is of course correct, whatever we do, we will lose more than we win; its a simple fact.

Then why bother to research anything if it's hopeless? From what I've seen of your systems Reyth I think you're approaching things in the wrong way. You seem to be counting on events catching up, but that never works.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 06:58:39 PM by McCoy »
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #211 on: November 02, 2017, 07:14:40 PM »
Losing more than we win doesn't mean we can't be profitable, it just means we win less than what we lost. :)

I play a unique mix of hot and cold at the same time, betting on peaks and valleys.  Its similar to trading the markets, where we pick a certain stock/commodity to follow and buy/sell based on what its trading at.

Of course you are right, all of my past systems didn't approach the game in this way but I learned things from them that helped me to improve my game. :)

Roulette simply doesn't ever "even out".  Its a game that is based on Perfectly Balanced ImbalanceTM.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 07:48:43 PM by Reyth »
 

Real

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #212 on: November 02, 2017, 09:27:30 PM »
Quote from: Naively Stated by McCoy
Real is wrong to say that no matter what system we use we will necessarily lose,

If you're playing a random wheel or rng, then you will certainly become a loser over time.  Regardless of your bet selection.  Again, this is a proven fact. 

Quote from: Naively Stated by McCoy
Even bias wheel players can't avoid it.

When playing biased wheels the player gets the edge over the casino.  Due to the defective gaming device, some numbers hit more frequently than probability would dictate because of the bias.  This is what enables the player to get the edge.  In visual ballistics the player can also get the edge because of the accuracy of his predictions. In the end it's getting the edge that enables the player to win, not money management or the hit and run nonsense.

Quote from: McCoy
The house edge in most sports bets is well over 10%, far more than roulette, and yet significant numbers of punters make a consistent profit, including me. I know the odds are not fixed in sports like they are in roulette, but that isn't important, it just means you have to focus your attention on the selection process.

You simply can't compare the selection process of the two.  In the random game of roulette, it doesn't really matter what you choose to bet on, over time the result will inevitably still be (the house edge) x (the total amount bet).  Claiming otherwise is ludicrous.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 09:36:15 PM by Real »
 

McCoy

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #213 on: November 03, 2017, 09:32:33 AM »
The problem with your simplistic analysis Real and why it doesn't apply in the real (excuse the pun) world is that it's only relevant when thinking about what happens over millions of spins. What you call random means that each number has the same chance as any other to hit so that eventually all will have hit the same number of times or the ratios will be the same for each pair. However in the short term ie a playing session there is no tendency to balance and therefore you can't call the outcomes random in the previous sense of the word. They are still random in the sense that spins are independent but that's only half the equation because in order for outcomes to be random outcomes must be independent *and* equally likely. You only have to observe a couple of hundred spins in order to see that outcomes are not equally likely and imbalance is the norm. So I reject your premise that outcomes are random. What I'm attempting to do is capitalise on these imbalances, trends and patterns which occur in the short term. You can be of the opinion that this is a waste of time but it is not a 'ludicrous' enterprise as I have already proven for myself. And it is certainly not the 'gambler's fallacy' because that involves betting in the belief that the long term statistics apply in the short term, which ironically is exactly what you are doing when you criticise. So get real, Real.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 09:35:44 AM by McCoy »
 
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Real

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #214 on: February 01, 2018, 06:00:53 PM »
The Global Pie is nonsense.
 

scepticus

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #215 on: February 01, 2018, 07:41:26 PM »
Real
You simply can't compare the selection process of the two.  In the random game of roulette, it doesn't really matter what you choose to bet on, over time the result will inevitably still be (the house edge) x (the total amount bet).  Claiming otherwise is ludicrous.   « Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 09:36:15 PM by Real »

Mc Coy's point you miss is that the odds are against the Bettor in both instances and yet it is possible to win  in one so the HE is clearly  NOT the impediment you claim.
. PROVIDED you bet the winning number  in roulette you win DESPITE the HE." Claiming otherwise is ludicrous "

As I have explained before the REAL argument against winning at roulette is that the Bettor has no dependable prior History whereas Sports Betting has.  So you consistent posting of the HE being the over-riding impediment is clearly wrong. And gives added weight to my belief that you are not the Roulette Professional you claim to be.

 
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #216 on: February 01, 2018, 09:42:20 PM »
I was a little bit tired  by this discussions. All arguments  have passed so many times. It is useless to argue with an AP player about systems and strategies. This was the reason I have retired this month from the forum.
 

scepticus

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #217 on: February 01, 2018, 10:40:34 PM »
I would ignore them too Dobbelsteen ( yes  Really ! ) but unfortunately some newbies believe their nonsense . Some even send  money  !   Should they be allowed a free run to exploit them under the pretext that they are " educating " them ? 
 

Real

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #218 on: February 16, 2018, 10:58:56 PM »
Quote
De Bono gives a lot of good approaches of thinking, despite the subject, and I always thought should have been taught at school.
  He is famous for a couple of technics (thinking hats and parallel thinking) and a bunch of experiment. I wanna talk about one of the latter.

De Bono grouped a bunch of high school student in a room, with a task to accomplish: they have to cross the room from one door to another without touching the floor and in the least amount of time. He gave them wooden boards, ropes, a ball, few other objects.
  All of them tight boards on their feet, and they walked to the other side. They do the task with similar time.
  Then, he remove objects till one boards and twigs left. The solution was using one board and jump to the other side. The time used was considerably less, but no one thought of this solution at the beginning. Why?

Because our mind try to use all is in his availability. If it doesn't, mind thinks to loose options.
  How can I use this in my systems? Taking out options. I do an example.-Talos

I'm sorry, but this is just a bunch of distracting dribble.  If you need to rely on that babble to design a system then give it up now.
 

Woke

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #219 on: February 17, 2018, 01:35:21 AM »
The guy seemingly with the most sense inversely catches the most flak.  ;D
 
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Real

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #220 on: February 19, 2018, 08:34:06 PM »
The triggers aren't worth dirt.  Really guys, the fact that you even have to test it to know is embarrassing.

« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 08:36:32 PM by Real »
 

GIAJJENNO

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #221 on: February 19, 2018, 09:09:47 PM »
The triggers aren't worth dirt.  Really guys, the fact that you even have to test it to know is embarrassing.

Have you ever tested the single dozen system? If not, how is it possible, that our triggers are wins over 70%. YXX 70%, XYX 70%, XXY 60%. But not 33, what you say. With stoploss, and wingoals this system can be the most consistantly profitable system in the world. And whoes take part in this system, creating thoughts, addig some oponions, something, everybody is more proud, than watching wheel, like a car mechanic, which wheel is biased, and bet accordingly.
 

Real

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #222 on: February 19, 2018, 09:15:39 PM »

That system trigger thread on the dozens went on for 51 pages because Kav chose to filter out all of the constructive criticism and because the facts and math aren't warm and fuzzy.  Consequently he ensured that the bad information would spread and thrive like an infection.  I hope none of you lost money as a result.

Here's proof that your triggers are utterly worthless.

1. Stand around next to the wheel and wait to bet.  Apply your trigger, and then look down and count the number of pockets in which the ball can land in on the next spin.

2. Next, do the same thing without applying your trigger.  Again, look down and count the number of pockets in which the ball can land in on the next spin.

Now which method above increased your probability of winning?  ::)

« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 09:29:49 PM by Real »
 

TheGenner

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #223 on: February 19, 2018, 09:26:51 PM »
Real, you could have made the options under 3 to make it a bit easier! ;D
 

Mike

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Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #224 on: February 20, 2018, 08:03:21 AM »
Have you ever tested the single dozen system? If not, how is it possible, that our triggers are wins over 70%. YXX 70%, XYX 70%, XXY 60%. But not 33, what you say.

MREKO,

You're comparing apples and oranges. The single dozen system win rate is 70% because a win in that system is defined as AT LEAST ONE WIN IN 3 BETS, which, unsurprisingly, is the probability that a dozen will hit at least once in 3 spins. The 33% is the probability of a particular dozen winning in ONE spin. In order to test the superiority of that system as opposed to just betting a dozen randomly you need to test both and compare win rates.