Author Topic: Designing my new system  (Read 8780 times)

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kav

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Designing my new system
« on: June 05, 2016, 04:08:53 PM »
This is a real time report by me while in the process of designing my new system.
One of my main considerations for this new bet selection is to minimize the "near miss" effect, regarding the European wheel. For example you have an important bet on 17 but 34 (next to 17) keeps hitting while 17 sleeps well.

Whoever has played high stakes on straight numbers in a real roulette table knows what I'm talking about.

The full system is here and it's free!
« Last Edit: September 27, 2016, 05:45:25 PM by kav »

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Sheridan44

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2016, 04:23:45 PM »
Would this be similar to a neighbors type selection?

kav

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2016, 04:37:44 PM »
The problem with the neighbor bet is that it needs 5 units for 5 adjacent numbers.
Like in the Kav bet, I try to minimize the units needed.

Another aspect I want to improve with this system is ease of laying out the bets.
I mean in Kav you have to lay down 7 bets.
This should be a bit simpler to place or call the bets.

And no, it will not offer the full coverage of a "neighbors" bet. It is mostly "avoid losing" than "win" when the adjacent numbers hit.

Sheridan44

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2016, 05:33:53 PM »
Ahhh....OK, yep that's the objective...keeping the overhead as low as possible.

lucky_strike

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2016, 06:01:55 PM »

Kav

Pierre Baieux have decoded the relation between table layout and Wheel layout.
He show Amazing cominations with different bets covering sectors on the Wheel layout using the table layout in a very clever way.

Maybe this would be something for you and your new development to get some solutions or inspiration.
Also Laruance Scott have some solutions covering certain parts of Wheel layout using the the table layout in a very clever way.
All from stright up to street bets among others.

The first on by Pierre Baieux i can send to you if you want a copy.
If you want Laurance Solution, let me know and i will copy the pages into PDF.

Cheers

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UK-21

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2016, 06:05:01 PM »
I'm curious . . .

Unless one is attempting to target numbers in a sector of the track's circumference (or possibly even a single number) on the grounds of a biased wheel or possisble recurring dealer action, then the fact that on a losing spin the winning number happens to be adjacent to one bet on seems to me to be irrelevent - as all numbers have an equal chance of showing.

The whole concept of "near misses" having any significance is another myth that goes along wih the Gamblers' Fallacy, and adjusting betting patterns to take account of losses resulting from near misses (ie covering the numbers each side of the original bet, or switching the original bet) is simply voodoo thinking.

If you adopt a betting pattern proposed by Jesper (I think - apologies if not), where 24 of 37 numbers are covered (betting on a 1-1-0-1-1-0-1-1-0  . . .  pattern), then all losing numbers will be adjacent to at least one that was bet on? For every single number on the track there are two adjacent ones . . .

I think you should concentrate on finding a betting methodology that reduces the number of chips on the felt each spin for an acceptable level of risk (of losing the spin), whilst at the same time having a prospect of riding some positive variance when it occurs. Forget this line of thinking as it simply has no merit.

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kav

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2016, 06:30:46 PM »
UK-21,
Quote
I think you should concentrate on finding a betting methodology that reduces the number of chips on the felt each spin for an acceptable level of risk (of losing the spin)
This is one of my concerns indeed.

Quote
...whilst at the same time having a prospect of riding some positive variance when it occurs. Forget this line of thinking as it simply has no merit
Believing in the possible benefits of positive variance and not in the possible benefits of recovery, is so one-sided as believing that this BBBBBB is more probable than this BBBRRR . Both are equally probable. What kind of sequences/situations one wants to capitalize on is a personal strategic decision.

Quote
Unless one is attempting to target numbers in a sector of the track's circumference (or possibly even a single number) on the grounds of a biased wheel or possible recurring dealer action, then the fact that on a losing spin the winning number happens to be adjacent to one bet on seems to me to be irrelevant - as all numbers have an equal chance of showing.

The whole concept of "near misses" having any significance is another myth that goes along with the Gamblers' Fallacy, and adjusting betting patterns to take account of losses resulting from near misses (ie covering the numbers each side of the original bet, or switching the original bet) is simply voodoo thinking.

Depends on how you define significance. If you have ever played an important bet straight up and the neighbor number hit, you would know how... significant that would feel.

Biased wheel or not, the wheel is a physical entity in which some number are close to other numbers. This is no voodoo. It is as real as it gets. I am not suggesting that the section 17-34 (next to each other) has higher probability to hit than 17-31 (away from each other). I am just making a strategic decision (based on various insights) that I want to avoid (to some extend) the "near miss" phenomenon.
[Btw, this is still a chaotic bet selection, I'm not just betting on one specific section of the wheel, but this another story.]

Btw, have you ever wondered why the numbers on the wheel are distributed the way they are and not in an increasing order?
« Last Edit: June 05, 2016, 06:57:26 PM by kav »

kav

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2016, 06:46:41 PM »
lucky strike,

This is very interesting.
It seems that unknowingly I do a similar study to those by Basieux and Laurence.
I'm sure that each of us would find other combinations more interesting than others.

Take for example the "ease of laying down the bets" aspect. Admittedly, if this was not a parameter I consider important I would probably have decided on a (slightly) different selection. But being a roulette player playing in real casinos I know that this (simplicity) is something I should take into account. Furthermore, simplicity of bets helps on the progression.

While I like very much philosophizing about probabilities, risk etc. my bet selections are based on hands on experience and are not just mental exercises.

Please feel free to send me any material at 30@roulette30.com. I think there is a German pdf of Basieux available online.
Thanks
« Last Edit: June 05, 2016, 06:53:15 PM by kav »

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dobbelsteen

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2016, 08:55:52 PM »
Every roulette method consits of a system, a betting selection and a strategy. A system without a strategy is doomed to fail.

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UK-21

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2016, 06:37:28 AM »
If you're considering making changes to a betting pattern to take account of the "near miss phenomenon" (which IMHO is something that only exists between some players' ears) - due to how you feel when you "just" miss out on a straight-up payout - you're crossing a line between the maths and the voodoo stuff.

You're call of course. Personally I think you're wasting your time. with it.

lucky_strike

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2016, 08:45:52 AM »
Kav ...

The German PDF is given to me from Pierre Basieux him self and i got it translated, i send you both versions and i will scan the Laurance Scott pages.
I am the only one have the translated version, if any other has it, then they got it from me.

Kav i can tell you that Laurance Scott once mention that local attractors is the real thing.
I can not tell you exactly what he wrote as the forum was private.
But he was refering to scatter patterns using Visual ballistics and talking about ball jumps.
It was very similiar towards your idea.

Cheers
« Last Edit: June 06, 2016, 09:29:59 AM by lucky_strike »

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Reyth

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2016, 07:55:40 AM »
Wow LS, very nice!!

dobbelsteen

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2016, 10:05:35 AM »
From mathematical point of vieuw there is no relation of the layout of the wheel and the layout of the table.

Every sample with the same numbers of figures  has the same chance or risk. A hit on 12 random figures has the same chance as a a dozen or a column. A wager on a dozen has much more oppertunities to develop a method or a bet selection.

The outside bets are the most suitable chances for methods

The Dutch Table layout will change everything in the  future.Table layout and the wheel are connected.

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Harryj

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2016, 02:15:17 PM »
Technically speaking Random Chance should not produce any statistics. Yet of course it does ! I find that "error" in the structure of chance very usable ! I find it enough to overthrow the casino HE.

Unfortunately it requires a great deal of work to both establish those STATS and to put them to good use. Alas most people want a certainty that can be applied without effort.

Harry

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mr j

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Re: Designing my new system
« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2016, 02:37:59 PM »
This is a real time report by me while in the process of designing my new system.
One of my main considerations for this new bet selection is to minimize the "near miss" effect, regarding the European wheel. For example you have an important bet on 17 but 34 (next to 17) keeps hitting while 17 sleeps well.

Whoever has played high stakes on straight numbers in a real roulette table knows what I'm talking about.

"Whoever has played high stakes on straight numbers in a real roulette table knows what I'm talking about" >> (lol) this is stated like its some kind of a weird exception.

Ken