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Author Topic: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette  (Read 5002 times)

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Reyth

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2016, 10:03:27 PM »
Yes, you might of noticed that I resorted to a similar technique:

1 1 3 6 12

I like to put the stall bet in the very beginning when the odds are at their lowest to actually hit.

I didn't make this up though, I learned it from Harry on this forum. :D

Regarding those other posts, the cost has become too high to justify the low payout, 1:1.  So I am approaching another system that pays out much better, like 10:1.
 

Sheridan44

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2016, 10:26:28 PM »
ahhh  - ok  I skimmed over that section, I should have looked closer.
 
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scepticus

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2016, 12:13:04 AM »
 I don't  think there can ever be a Guaranteed Winning System . Variability will decide -not the Gambler and not the Casino.
 " Winning" is not what gambling is about  .but " Profit "  and that is what we should concentrate on.
I agree with Reyth that we can profit. The Past is another Country, the Future is Vision and the present is the only time that we can win !   
 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #18 on: May 08, 2016, 02:04:56 AM »
I agree.

One could have a losing session (aka... more losses than wins in a series) and still profit.... (and vice-versa).
 

Sheridan44

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #19 on: May 08, 2016, 02:09:31 AM »
Yes...variability is a weird phenomenon.....there can be instances when it can act in your favor....and other times it can be the sequence from hell.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2016, 08:25:39 AM »
Wager one unit on the numbers 13,17,15 and the DS 13/18.Let the computer compute the results of a 200 spins sample. Do the same for 13,17,15 and the DS 19/24.What is the difference?
The first wager is a 6 number bet and the the second example is a 9 number bet.The long run expectation is that there is no difference, but the lost percentage shall be 2,7%.
The mixed bet wager can be seen  and handled as a 3 number bet and a 6 number bet.
Systems in general have no edge.
 

UK-21

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2016, 09:39:37 AM »
I think I've got my head around the reasoning on this one, but it's not what I inferred from what was originally written around "soaking up spins".

If we take an example of a single number straight up, then there's roughly a 95% chance of it showing within 145 spins - this is two standard deviations south from the expectation of a little less than four shows, based on 1/37. So if my "luck" was running at -2SD, I'd be betting (and losing) up to 145 units before I got paid out 35+1? Covering additional numbers, giving a greater probability of hitting, will (hopefully) produce returns that will offset this anticipated loss? Am I on the right track?

Problem, as I see it, is that the additional numbers wagered may also be subject to negative variance and lose successively too, in which case adding more numbers to offset potential losses doesn't achieve it's aim and is just exposing more money to the house edge?

Also, on the subject of "edge" I think there may be some misunderstanding on my part with the terminology used here. Covering more numbers certainly provides the benefit of an increased probability of hitting and reducing the risk of losing all on any one spin, but doing so won't affect the house edge - the number of slots on the wheel and the pay table doesn't alter.  As dobblesteen has pointed out - applying any "system" will never provide an edge over the house.

Playing around with methods that hit a balance between risk and potential return is a conundrum that has been around for as long as the wheel of doom itself. I spend more time than is decent thinking about it - as a means of paying less for my entertainment.

 
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Ringmaster

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2016, 09:54:16 AM »
Hi Reyth, Couple of questions, first, how do you randomly select numbers? and have you factored in the attrition fate, that increases with every extra ( non-paying chip) element that you introduce to the layout? -R
 

scepticus

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2016, 03:22:18 PM »
Wager one unit on the numbers 13,17,15 and the DS 13/18.Let the computer compute the results of a 200 spins sample. Do the same for 13,17,15 and the DS 19/24.What is the difference?
The first wager is a 6 number bet and the the second example is a 9 number bet.The long run expectation is that there is no difference, but the lost percentage shall be 2,7%.
The mixed bet wager can be seen  and handled as a 3 number bet and a 6 number bet.
Systems in general have no edge.

Dobbelsteen
As these are 2 separate  bets I think they must be treated as 2 separate bets
In this instance I think it best to bet only the 3 numbers 13-15-17 as this can be viewed as your DS being calculated as the 18/37 ( black numbers )multiplied by your 6/37 .  ( ? )
 

Reyth

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2016, 05:48:33 PM »
Problem, as I see it, is that the additional numbers wagered may also be subject to negative variance and lose successively too, in which case adding more numbers to offset potential losses doesn't achieve it's aim and is just exposing more money to the house edge?

Also, on the subject of "edge" I think there may be some misunderstanding on my part with the terminology used here. Covering more numbers certainly provides the benefit of an increased probability of hitting and reducing the risk of losing all on any one spin, but doing so won't affect the house edge - the number of slots on the wheel and the pay table doesn't alter.  As dobblesteen has pointed out - applying any "system" will never provide an edge over the house.

Right.  By "edge" I mean an improvement in win rate and/or max loss.  I do not seek to alter the house edge because that is impossible.
 

Reyth

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2016, 05:53:16 PM »
Hi Reyth, Couple of questions, first, how do you randomly select numbers? and have you factored in the attrition fate, that increases with every extra ( non-paying chip) element that you introduce to the layout? -R

I personally use a random generator that has a seed of 16M elements where the point of initial entry is randomized by the computer clock.

I have a couple of suggestions about this here:

https://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=847.msg12341#msg12341

Well I realize that adding chips is a weight upon the system which is why I try and stress "inexpensive"; the improvement in win rate/max loss must justify the extra weight...?
 

Jesper

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #26 on: May 16, 2016, 02:28:29 PM »
We know the numbers will be "equal" in the long run That is by % and not by figures. In a 100 sample it can be 40% against 60% on an EC. In a 100000000000 run it will be almost equal in %, but the diff in numbers grow and can be 100000 or probably more. that's why I do not flat bet on EC. If we set a "autospin" to 100000 we can lose or win a lot withous stay at the computer.
 
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Harryj

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Re: Guaranteed Methods To Gain A Genuine Edge In Roulette
« Reply #27 on: May 19, 2016, 01:22:55 PM »
  What we are talking about here is what I call "Insurance". The idea is, that by decreasing the chance of a loss, you increase the chance  of showing a win before "The Long Run" catches up with you.

     Let's look at Reyth's original idea. 3 numbers ,straight up, have a losing chance of 11/1.(forget zero for the moment) By adding a sixline to the bet the chance of a loss is reduced to 3/1 !  The overall "Long run" odds don't really improve, But the chance of staying in the game longer does. Extra time that can allow you to show a profit, and get out while you are ahead !

     I have said on many occasions that avoiding a loss must greatly improve the chances of winning.

     Harry
 
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