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Author Topic: Can happened just by luck?!  (Read 8472 times)

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Real

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2016, 05:11:16 PM »
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If this was true it must, the ''mother'' variance and her ''child'' deviation, cease to influence outcomes.
But of corse variance and HE never cease to be an undetachable part of the game.

.

Blue Angel,

Please explain the two terms that you're attempting to use.

1. Variance
2. Deviation
« Last Edit: February 12, 2016, 05:41:09 PM by Real »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2016, 06:45:14 PM »
Quote
If this was true it must, the ''mother'' variance and her ''child'' deviation, cease to influence outcomes.
But of corse variance and HE never cease to be an undetachable part of the game.

.

Blue Angel,

Please explain the two terms that you're attempting to use.

1. Variance
2. Deviation

Why are you asking something which you already know??

However, I'm going to satisfy your curiosity;

Deviations are the constant effect of variance, it cannot be the one without the other.
We are using term deviation to describe the decline from the mean.

The term mean describes the average which probability theory dictates.
The average is never certainty, but approximation of expectation.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2016, 10:10:06 PM »
Trilobite can you describe and explain your HR. Have you tested or analyzed your system. Do you know what a long run sample is? I have my doubts.
I have challenged the forum to beat the results of SSB. Did you try??? 
 

Real

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #18 on: February 13, 2016, 12:05:28 AM »
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Why are you asking something which you already know??

Because you don't seem to be able to grasp either one of them.

Overtime the house edge is the biggest player and will consume the large part of the players bankroll.  Not variance.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #19 on: February 13, 2016, 12:30:23 AM »
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Why are you asking something which you already know??

Because you don't seem to be able to grasp either one of them.

Overtime the house edge is the biggest player and will consume the large part of the players bankroll.  Not variance.

So now you proved me wrong??
 

weird

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #20 on: February 13, 2016, 01:03:13 AM »
Hi BA,

So the
"deviation+variance",

swinging like...
 PENDULUM???
and we win, by trying to take advantage of the swinging,
 from positive to negative to positive and ....

When it start to "pendulum"?
I mean, risk the 'start' to swing back?
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #21 on: February 13, 2016, 01:49:45 AM »
Hi BA,

So the
"deviation+variance",

swinging like...
 PENDULUM???
and we win, by trying to take advantage of the swinging,
 from positive to negative to positive and ....

When it start to "pendulum"?
I mean, risk the 'start' to swing back?

I've never suggest to use a ''pendulum'' method, such method should be considered equally good as a martingale for 10 times in a row.
The Wells's system is slightly better than martingale because it can win more with good results and lose less with bad results, but both of them have same chances to lose.
The ''Wells system'' has been described that works as a pendulum due to the swings of results, moving back and forth within a certain range provides small profit like a negative martingale would.
The main difference is when you could achieve 10 wins more than your losses because you would gain 10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1=55 instead of 10 units in case of martingale.
Also in case of 10 losses you would lose 10+11+12+13+14+15+16+17+18+19=145 units instead of: 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512=1023 units with martingale.
So with the wins to losses distribution, ''Wells system'' would do much better than a negative martingale progression, this doesn't make it a long term winner because it fails to collaborate with high degree deviations.
But let's try to see the other side of the coin...if these two methods were using positive progressions instead of negative, they would eventually win more than they lose.
For Wells would be the 55 to 145 reversed and for Martingale the 10 to 1023 reversed, by using a positive Martingale to all  EC pairs and by knowing what kind of streaks we should look for, we have a rock solid method.
Keep the streaks low in order to have realistic expectations, for example instead of aiming for 10 in a row aim for 3 in a row, if your negative balance becomes -7 then play for a streak of 4 which provides 1+2+4+8=15 units profit.
It doesn't have to be just 1 big streak, for instance it could be instead of 6 in a row, 1 streak of 4 + a streak of 2 or 2 streaks of 3 or 3 streaks of 2.
Especially if you are betting all 3 EC pairs simultaneously these streaks happen very fast!

 

Real

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2016, 02:31:41 AM »
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But let's try to see the other side of the coin...if these two methods were using positive progressions instead of negative, they would eventually win more than they lose

Come again?

No they wouldn't.  You have no way of knowing whether a winning streak will continue or end on the next spin or series of spins.

Over time you can't turn a negative expectation game into a positive one just by using a progression.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #23 on: February 13, 2016, 02:37:08 AM »
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You have no way of knowing whether a winning streak will continue or end on the next spin or series of spins.

No I don't, but variance does...
 

Real

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2016, 02:42:04 AM »
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No I don't, but variance does...

BlueAngel,

This will help you understand variance a little bit better.  Every time you see the word variance, replace it with the word "luck".

"No I don't, but variance does..."

"No I don't, but LUCK does..."

Unfortunately, the house edge is a larger value than "luck" over time.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2016, 06:35:27 AM by Real »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #25 on: February 13, 2016, 02:45:12 AM »
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No I don't, but variance does...

BlueAngel,

This will help you understand variance a little bit better.  Every time you see the word variance, replace it with the word "luck".

"No I don't, but variance does..."

"No I don't, but LUCK does..."

Unfortunately, the house edge is larger value than "luck" over time.

One can control his own ''luck''.
 

Real

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2016, 02:47:33 AM »
LOL, nice try.

Luck = success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

Any system that relies on "variance" to win is a system that's relying on "luck" to win.

« Last Edit: February 13, 2016, 06:36:08 AM by Real »
 

Trilobite

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2016, 10:51:32 AM »

Trilobite can you describe and explain your HR. 
Yes, the whole system has been documented for explanation purposes, but I’d prefer to hold off on that for now.

Have you tested or analyzed your system.  Yes, more than most.

Do you know what a long run sample is?  Yes, for this method (betting 1 layout dozen) I use sets of 80,000 trials.

I have my doubts.That’s too bad.

I have challenged the forum to beat the results of SSB. Did you try???
  Sorry, no. Why would I? I’ve got bigger fish to fry.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2016, 10:55:47 AM by Trilobite »
 

Real

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2016, 08:15:15 PM »
What is an "HR"?
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2016, 08:44:24 PM »
What is an "HR"?

Human Resources

What's an IT ?