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Author Topic: Everything or nothing??  (Read 12347 times)

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BlueAngel

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2016, 12:37:14 AM »
2) Flat bet different number on each and every spin

Do you mean bet each number 0-36 on successive spins and then start over when you get to 36?

Whether you choose 1) or 2) there is no difference logically speaking and should be no difference in final statistics.

No,I mean to bet the last number or always the same number.

If we think about it in mathematical terms it is exactly the same 1 in 37 chance to hit.
The reason I started this topic was to realize if and why a criterion is superior over another.
According Caleb J. betting the last number is better than betting the same and he explained his reasoning.
But if we are betting always the last number isn't against ''law of third'' ?
In order to have 66% chance to win you should bet the same number for 37 successive spins or till it hits.
If I'm not wrong,changing the bet always to the last number you don't have 66% chance as you would have regarding ''law of thirds''.
What do you think?
 

Reyth

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2016, 01:33:29 AM »
Its so funny I was just thinking about this and was going to post about it in my Bullseye thread which I see you have also responded to my latest post there.

I am working on a theory of "virtual scatter" where if the last hit occurred within 37 spins the next spin well tend to be outside 37 spins and vice versa.  I was just going to go to my Bullseye thread and look at the data dump I did to see if there is any pattern like that.

Using the law of the third, it seems to me that once you step outside that 37 spin window, the chances are greater to continue to sleep BUT they also get better with every spin that the number will wake up.  That is such a weird concept that I feel forced to print out a full loss distribution on a single number:



The number 4137 represents the 37th spin and the odds of it hitting within that time frame I am showing as 63.68%.  The next 37 spin window is spin number 73 which is shown as 997 and which odds I am showing to be 86.43%.  The next 37 spin window is spin number 109 which is shown as 176 and the odds I have not calculated recently.  In order to find the odds of that number occurring add up each entry up to and including that 176 entry and then divide that total by 432331 to find the percentage chances.

I think the key is that even though the odds increase with each spin for the number to wake up, each successive spin has less relevance statistically to those increasing chances.  I dunno, these are my thoughts and efforts anyway... :shrug:
« Last Edit: January 05, 2016, 01:54:19 AM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2016, 02:04:22 AM »
So does it make it more possible?
Let's assume you bet always the same number, it could come on next spin or very late.
I think by betting the most recent,therefore different number, doesn't make difference regarding probability theory,but it does make in my empirical overviews.
It's quite paradox when a number can be repeated for three or more times in a row, while the same number at another time and/or place re-appeares after 360 spins.
What does this means? Balance or inbalance??
I believe both in one.
How could someone win by knowing this?
By waiting for a delayed number to come back and then bet steady till it balances with its probability.
But wait a minute,did you said waiting?
Yes, waiting is time consuming and time is money, so there must be a more practical way to win, right?
Yes there is, follow trends, for example 1 number is hard to repeat 3 times but 3 numbers are 3 times easier to repeat 3 times.
Bet that the first three repeated numbers will repeat once more within a timeframe of 37 spins.
 

Reyth

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2016, 02:34:11 AM »
Right, that the repeater will either repeat (33%) or show up within 37 spins (33%).  The problem is the progression and the goal is to do better than the 1-3-9-etc of the 2 dozens?

On imbalance I have shown a "snap back effect" with the "short term trend system" where the odds increase for the second subsequent hit after a significant deviation (85+ spins).  There is definitely short term trending going on in cycles that is serving the long term trend for overall balance.

Ya that's how I play the Bullseye now.  If it is less than expectation, I will bet every spin but if it is greater than expectation I will not bet unless a deviation of 85 spins or greater occurs and I will play immediately after that first hit (wake up).  This "bet the wake up" strategy I think fits perfectly with your "repeater philosophy" and both fit perfectly with the Law of the Third. : D

HEY!  I had a question.  Can the Law of the Third be divided into sections?  Kinda sucks that 37 is a prime number but like can we see the Law of the Third in like every 12 or 13 spins?
« Last Edit: January 05, 2016, 02:43:40 AM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2016, 02:44:48 AM »
Right, that the repeater will either repeat (33%) or show up within 37 spins (33%).  The problem is the progression and the goal is to do better than the 1-3-9-etc of the 2 dozens?

On imbalance I have shown a "snap back effect" with the "short term trend system" where the odds increase for the second subsequent hit after a significant deviation (85+ spins).  There is definitely short term trending going on in cycles that is serving the long term trend for overall balance.

Ya that's how I play the Bullseye now.  If it is less than expectation, I will bet every spin but if it is greater than expectation I will not bet unless a deviation of 85 spins or greater occurs and I will play immediately after that first hit (wake up).  This "bet the wake up" strategy I think fits perfectly with your "repeater philosophy" and both fit perfectly with the Law of the Third. : D

You may also try the first six repeated numbers for 18 spins, I consider it slightly better than 3 numbers for 37 spins.
 

scepticus

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #20 on: January 05, 2016, 06:03:35 AM »
I remember reading- away back - a  similar idea .
Wait until a number repeats 3 times then start betting each and every qualifying number.
I never tested it so don't know it's value.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #21 on: January 05, 2016, 11:52:10 AM »
I remember reading- away back - a  similar idea .
Wait until a number repeats 3 times then start betting each and every qualifying number.
I never tested it so don't know it's value.

I didn't said three times, the selection includes only numbers which have appeared twice, then I bet those numbers till only 1 of them has three hits within 37 spins (including charting for numbers selection)

Reyth,
yes you can tailor the duration according to your liking.
For example instead of 3 numbers with 2 hits only, you could wait till there are 6 or 9 numbers with two hits only.
By doing so you should reduce the event's horizon proportionally.
If for 3 numbers the horizon is 37 spins, for the double amount of numbers you bet half the duration (18 spins)
There is something very important which is easy to miss, the main principle is at least 1 number to hit 3 times within 37 spins.
Therefore if you wait for 6,7,8,9...etc one of the already repeated numbers could hit for third time,thus you shouldn't expect second 3 timer within the same cycle, you should expand the event horizon to 2 cycles in order to average out expectation.
The expectation should be always the minimum possible regardless of the event we choose.
 

Reyth

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #22 on: January 05, 2016, 12:08:22 PM »
That is interesting.  I should run code on the 3 repeater theory and see what the percentage is of this occurring every 37 spins.  Is it proper to run it continuously so that every spin generates a new 37 spin snapshot?
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #23 on: January 05, 2016, 12:28:28 PM »
That is interesting.  I should run code on the 3 repeater theory and see what the percentage is of this occurring every 37 spins.  Is it proper to run it continuously so that every spin generates a new 37 spin snapshot?

Yes, it's recommended this way because you may average out the cycles and there's suitable progression for such distribution.
 

Reyth

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #24 on: January 05, 2016, 12:32:44 PM »
Ok.  I think I will do that this morning.

Wow the max loss streak on this is only 33 in a row which makes me think it is profitable versus a 35-1 payout!?  The problem is the progression has to withstand betting every 2 repeater for the next 33 spins -- if that can be accomplished, this is a winning and profitable system.

The actual win rate is 93.06% per set of 37 spins.

Let's count the max 2 repeaters... Ok its 16 which is obviously too big for the loss streak.

Ok so the question is, what is the maximum number of stations that we can handle on a 33 step progression?  Its 12 but that is impractical because it requires a bankroll of
8398944 dollars which is too formidable even at a penny table.

8 stations is:

Code: [Select]
Spin   Bet   Spots   Profit   Bankroll
1   1   8   28   8
2   1   8   20   16
3   1   8   12   24
4   1   8   4   32
5   2   8   24   48
6   2   8   8   64
7   3   8   20   88
8   4   8   24   120
9   5   8   20   160
10   6   8   8   208
11   8   8   16   272
12   10   8   8   352
13   13   8   12   456
14   17   8   20   592
15   22   8   24   768
16   28   8   16   992
17   36   8   16   1280
18   46   8   8   1648
19   59   8   4   2120
20   76   8   8   2728
21   98   8   16   3512
22   126   8   16   4520
23   162   8   16   5816
24   208   8   8   7480
25   268   8   24   9624
26   344   8   8   12376
27   442   8   0   15912
28   569   8   20   20464
29   731   8   4   26312
30   940   8   8   33832
31   1209   8   20   43504
32   1554   8   8   55936
33   1998   8   8   71920

The reason I identify this is towards the strategy of betting any single group of 37 spins where there are 8 or less repeaters, knowing that the maximum loss in a row is 33 spins and running the above progression regardless?

Btw I just thought of the "reverse snap back" which occurs when there is a prolonged run of a number all within 37 spins.  It would be very interesting to measure this too.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2016, 01:43:39 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #25 on: January 07, 2016, 02:23:14 PM »
Ok.  I think I will do that this morning.

Wow the max loss streak on this is only 33 in a row which makes me think it is profitable versus a 35-1 payout!?  The problem is the progression has to withstand betting every 2 repeater for the next 33 spins -- if that can be accomplished, this is a winning and profitable system.

The actual win rate is 93.06% per set of 37 spins.

Let's count the max 2 repeaters... Ok its 16 which is obviously too big for the loss streak.

Ok so the question is, what is the maximum number of stations that we can handle on a 33 step progression?  Its 12 but that is impractical because it requires a bankroll of
8398944 dollars which is too formidable even at a penny table.

8 stations is:

Code: [Select]
Spin   Bet   Spots   Profit   Bankroll
1   1   8   28   8
2   1   8   20   16
3   1   8   12   24
4   1   8   4   32
5   2   8   24   48
6   2   8   8   64
7   3   8   20   88
8   4   8   24   120
9   5   8   20   160
10   6   8   8   208
11   8   8   16   272
12   10   8   8   352
13   13   8   12   456
14   17   8   20   592
15   22   8   24   768
16   28   8   16   992
17   36   8   16   1280
18   46   8   8   1648
19   59   8   4   2120
20   76   8   8   2728
21   98   8   16   3512
22   126   8   16   4520
23   162   8   16   5816
24   208   8   8   7480
25   268   8   24   9624
26   344   8   8   12376
27   442   8   0   15912
28   569   8   20   20464
29   731   8   4   26312
30   940   8   8   33832
31   1209   8   20   43504
32   1554   8   8   55936
33   1998   8   8   71920

The reason I identify this is towards the strategy of betting any single group of 37 spins where there are 8 or less repeaters, knowing that the maximum loss in a row is 33 spins and running the above progression regardless?

Btw I just thought of the "reverse snap back" which occurs when there is a prolonged run of a number all within 37 spins.  It would be very interesting to measure this too.

You are making basic mistake by reducing the total number of repeaters because this way you reduce win rate too.
The solution is not in reduction but in the expansion, didn't I told you that you should expand and re-expand if necessary the event's horizon??
If our expectation could not be accomlished within 1 cycle, it will within 2,3...etc
How much is the average net gain in the results you've found?
 

Reyth

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #26 on: January 07, 2016, 03:11:39 PM »
Are you flat betting 6 numbers for 18 spins and/or 3 numbers for 37 spins?
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #27 on: January 07, 2016, 03:27:43 PM »
Are you flat betting 6 numbers for 18 spins and/or 3 numbers for 37 spins?

No,that's another thing.
Could you answer the following question?
How much is the average net gain in the results you've found?

By knowing this we can proceed further to the solution...
 

Reyth

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #28 on: January 07, 2016, 05:10:57 PM »
Ok I can measure the net gains but what about when the gains are negative?  Do you just want the positive gains?
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Everything or nothing??
« Reply #29 on: January 07, 2016, 05:19:05 PM »
Ok I can measure the net gains but what about when the gains are negative?  Do you just want the positive gains?

Yes, only the positive ones.
May I ask you a favor?
Could you please do what you did here with the "simple system" of dr Talos?
I'd like to compare the repeaters' systems.
Thanks in advance!