My Neighbor Bet Strategy

[Romn.Paras]

Hello Friends!  Sorry I have been away for awhile.  I have been quite busy with my new business endeavor. I hope all is well with all of you.  I decided to post this strategy that I have been using for a while with some pretty good results.  This is a strategy that is up to the player on how aggressive or conservative they want to play the game. 

The strategy that I have been using is a variation of the neighbor bet or the five number bet [nofollow].  Instead of playing a 5 number neighbor bet and betting 1 unit on each number, I have decided to play a nine number neighbor bet starting with 1 unit on each number.  For example, I will use my personal neighbor bet numbers that I like, but feel free to choose whatever you wish.  Unfortunately, here in the United States, most of the roulette games are American Roulette, so I will share what I play on the American Roulette wheel.  My favorite number is 00.  It was the first number I ever hit on playing roulette when I first started so it holds some sentimental value to me.  So the numbers I play are 00, then 1,13,36,24 and 27,10,25,29.  I have found that it is easier to hit sections of a wheel than exact numbers.  The key to the system is the staking.  I bet 1 unit on each of the 9 numbers and follow the sequence that was on pg 165 of the book" Monte Carlo Anecdotes and Systems of Play" .  I have attached a PDF file of the book in this studio section for everyone to use whenever they feel like using it.  So on pg. 165, It talks about a Paroli betting strategy.  I use the Paroli Betting Strategy and incorporate it into the nine number bet.

For example,   I start out staking 1 unit on 9 numbers.  If I lose, I do the same again.  If I lose, I do the same again. If I lose the third time, I stake 2 units on each of the 9 numbers.  If we lose again I repeat that same bet.  If we lose here, I stake 3 units on each of the 9 numbers.  If we lose this bet, I stake 4 units on each number.  If we lose here, it is decision time!  We have two options.

1.) We can continue on the direct Paroli Progression of staking and go 5, 7, 9, 12,16,.........etc until we hit. That is the aggressive way to play.
2.) Or we can decide to make a ladder system.  For instance,  the previous sequence was 1,1,1,2,3,4. After we lost of the 4 unit stake, we go back to 1 unit and use the sequence 1,1,2,2,3,4,5 and construct our first rung of the ladder.  If we lose all of those, then we construct another "step" in the ladder and play 1,2,2,3,4,5,7.  Now in the event that we win...we can chose to play at this sequence until we are in profit, or we can start over from the beginning if we want to be more conservative.

The nice part about this system is that it is all up to each player how they want to play. There are a few decisions that the player must make.  There is no one correct way to play it. 

I have been doing this for a little while and have done quite well with it .  In American Roulette, we expect one of the nine numbers to hit in every 4.2 spins.  That is the expectation. So we can devise a way to make a betting sequence that will put us in profit knowing this fact that after the fourth spin at 1 unit we will start losing our bankroll.  That is why I decided to combine the Paroli method of staking in the book, with an inside betting strategy. 

Please feel free to add any improvements or ideas to this strategy.  This is just a rough draft of what I have been working on lately.  Good luck to all of you! Cheers!

[Reyth]

Wow.  Welcome back!  I felt like I had missed something important in not having met you!

I am a huge fan of inside betting stations!

I would expect in the worst case to see 54 consecutive losses, do you think your ladder system could be tailored to accomodate that?

Actually my research has shown that if we are betting only numbers that are 37 spins or older, we can expect to hit them within 27 spins.  The only thing I haven't proven is what happens when you bet 9 such numbers but there are actually more of them in existence.

Your post has given me the opportunity to realize the importance of knowing this!  Thank you!

[Romn.Paras]

So let me ask this question, do you think it is feasible to play this way with a 9 number neighbor bet and actually play it in a real, true  Paroli Style?  After there is a win, add to the bet and try to win two in a row. Then start over.

I am of the opinion that it might work but if it is up to me, I am first selecting only numbers that have slept 37 or more spins & moving any numbers that hit to another such selection.  This will minimize my exposure and necessary use of any progressions.  If we can create a progression that will allow us to "surf" from hit to hit and when they occur closely (a bit of luck), allow us to end the progression, I think we can win.

We can then either choose to construct a ladder system however we want, or if we have the bankroll, play it in the direct progression.

Unless we play on a no-limit table and are multi-millionaires, we will not be able to approach 9 numbers directly in a progression.  If we approach them as only cold numbers we MIGHT be able to do so with 45K units:

Code: [Select] [nofollow]

1   1   9   27   9
2   1   9   18   18
3   1   9   9   27
4   2   9   27   45
5   2   9   9   63
6   3   9   18   90
7   4   9   18   126
8   5   9   9   171
9   7   9   18   234
10   9   9   9   315
11   12   9   9   423
12   16   9   9   567
13   22   9   27   765
14   29   9   18   1026
15   39   9   27   1377
16   52   9   27   1845
17   69   9   18   2466
18   92   9   18   3294
19   123   9   27   4401
20   164   9   27   5877
21   218   9   9   7839
22   291   9   18   10458
23   388   9   18   13950
24   517   9   9   18603
25   690   9   27   24813
26   920   9   27   33093
27   1226   9   9   44127
Of course once again, no limit tables are required.

So I think practically speaking, we are stuck trying to construct a surfing ladder system.  I would personally like to make it the cold number kind that is constantly moving all numbers that hit to other cold numbers.

I really need to do that analysis on cold number subsets to see how much freedom we actually have there.

I am prone to making faulty assumptions and utilizing inaccurate intellectual constructs so I am happy u are here to discuss it with me. : )

[NOTE: OMGOSH, I am so sorry I modified your post instead of quoting it. >.<  I'm tired its late at night. : ' (  LOL.  As a Mod you can edit your answers right into this one if you want LOL]

[Romn.Paras]

Reyth,

It is ok...lol.  It happens to me as well.    What I am suggesting is that when I say a direct progression, I mean a staking progression.  As long as we hit 1 of the 9 numbers we win. For instance here is the staking progression that I use when betting the 9 numbers. To play a direct progression, this would be the staking sequence until we win on one of the numbers . Then either start over or keep going until we win again. 

1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7,9,12,16,22,29,39,52,69,92,123,164

When I build a ladder system, I am speaking in terms of staking, not the actual numbers.  It is more of a money management strategy.  I like your approach to watching 37 numbers and looking at cold numbers.  It is almost in a sense like finding a biased wheel. 

My ladder system for my staking is a 6 number ladder system. Here is a some of it.

1,1,1,2,2,3,4 for the first ladder sequence for staking on 9 numbers after each spin
1,1,2,2,3,4,5 for the second sequence for staking on 9 numbers after each spin
1,2,2,3,4,5,7 for the third sequence for staking on 9 numbers after each spin
2,2,3,4,5,7,9 fourth sequence for staking on 9 numbers after each spin
2,3,4,5,7,9,12. fifth sequence for staking on 9 numbers after each spin

Once we hit, we can choose to stay at the sequence we are currently betting at and keep playing, or start over from the beginning if we want to play a little safer.

[Reyth]

Yes.  I think only the ladder staking will work.  I think the only way to figure out if it will work (or to make it work) is to map out actual win-loss amounts based on where the hits occur, like:

1 -9   +27
1 -18 +18
1 -27 +9
2 -45 + w/e

And we do that for every step of the ladder and map it out to at least 27 consecutive losses but no more than 54.  I think that's a good base to start from but there will also be the problem of multiple large losses in a row....  I think we have to take it in chunks because it is kinda mind boggling?

[Romn.Paras]

Reyth,

I agree that a ladder approach is key. I like how you have broken the numbers down. Very interesting perspective.  It is nice to bounce ideas off of each other. 

[Reyth]

If we can determine a "worst case scenario where we achieve profit" I can put it in a simulator and figure out what progressions would be required.

Something like "2 wins in every 4 bets" or something like that.  Is it actually 2 wins in every 3 bets?  If we can include a "break even" bet that might help too.

Or I could do one for each ladder like:

1- 2 wins every 9 bets
2- 2 wins every 8 bets
3- 2 wins every 7 bets

Something along those lines and I will output the results like, "the longest the wheel will be expected to go without generating 2 wins in every 9 bets is XX spins" and that way we can figure out more closely how to win.

I was just thinking that I might be able to make a HUGE table of such output to help us make the progressions, like every combination of # of wins (2-9) and every combination of # of bets (9-2) and see exactly where we are at as you construct the progression you can use the data as a guide?

[kav]

Romn welcome back! We missed you my friend.
This is a great approach. I'm a great fan of ladder progressions.
Every success with your new endeavors!

[scepticus]

If we can determine a "worst case scenario where we achieve profit" I can put it in a simulator and figure out what progressions would be required.

Something like "2 wins in every 4 bets" or something like that.  Is it actually 2 wins in every 3 bets?  If we can include a "break even" bet that might help too.

Or I could do one for each ladder like:

1- 2 wins every 9 bets
2- 2 wins every 8 bets
3- 2 wins every 7 bets

Something along those lines and I will output the results like, "the longest the wheel will be expected to go without generating 2 wins in every 9 bets is XX spins" and that way we can figure out more closely how to win.

I was just thinking that I might be able to make a HUGE table of such output to help us make the progressions, like every combination of # of wins (2-9) and every combination of # of bets (9-2) and see exactly where we are at as you construct the progression you can use the data as a guide?

Such a table would be helpful Reyth. It would be helpful ,too, if you broke it  down to " Ranges " as Harry  mentioned .
Thanks

[Reyth]

Ok!  Well I am just waiting to hear back from Romn so we can agree that the table will be practical for him and we can agree on the parameters.  He is the ladder expert, I only want to make sure the ladders are designed with specific statistics in mind...

On ranges, I can output a loss distribution with the table results so that we can see %'s along with each step to the max loss.  That way we can choose the "winning range" we wish to use or experiment with different ones...