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Author Topic: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)  (Read 12863 times)

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kav

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2015, 01:17:41 PM »
You AP guys stick to what you do but ,please, don't imply that we are idiots  because we don't agree that AP is the ONLY way to go.As you and I agree - we really are only guessing.   
scepticus,
This is not an attribute of "advantage players", it's just a character attribute. You can find big egos and intimidating behavior in all kinds of players/humans.
For example, in the past I had  a very civilized and productive dialogue with Laurence Scott, who is considered  some sort of authority in advantage play.

I don't have time right now, and I'm going to be away for a few days (back next Wednesday) but when I return I'll start a new thread on the difference between system play and AP, and explain in detail why the latter is valid and the former is not.
This would be very interesting Mike. I can't wait. Have a nice trip.

« Last Edit: June 06, 2015, 01:23:22 PM by kav »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #16 on: June 06, 2015, 03:15:09 PM »
Which playable bias Wheel, do not show up it in theire history?  Bias means there are not random outcome, and some numbers has +EV.

Bias happens on EVERY wheel at EVERY casino around the world!
It's something consistent and it's called LAW OF THE THIRD,because for every "sleeper" there is a "hot" number.
This doesn't need a wheel flaw in order to be exploited but only statistics.
Physics been transformed into statistics and statistics into results,then results are transforming into profit (or loss).
 

Jesper

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #17 on: June 06, 2015, 03:20:10 PM »
The same ball fall at the same speed every spin! Even if the throw is hard or less hard, the ball fall at the same speed every time.  Centrifugal forces towads the gravity and mass of the ball. Dust  moist and other stuff do not change it.
 

Mike

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2015, 04:16:15 PM »
The ball might FALL at the same speed, but it doesn't fall at the same POINT on the wheel every time, although if it did, that would be better for us!

@ BlueAngel,

The law of the third is not bias, it's just a consequence of numbers being more likely to repeat the further on you are in every cycle of 37 spins.
 

scepticus

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2015, 04:25:30 PM »
It seems BA, that " bias " means different things to different people .  In my view , the Wheel  needs to be sufficiently biased to be exploitable .THAT is the crucial question.And I don't see where our AP friends cannot
use a level wheel  with what they have outlined so far.
Like kav I look forward to Mike's next post though I think it will not be anything that we Old Timers have not heard before .
 

Jesper

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2015, 04:39:07 PM »
The ball might FALL at the same speed, but it doesn't fall at the same POINT on the wheel every time, although if it did, that would be better for us!


We need just to Watch a few spin to know the ball fall on different numbers.
 

Real

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2015, 05:24:53 PM »
Blue Angel,

The law of the third has nothing to do with a biased wheel.  Furthermore, it's not reall of any value.  I suppose you could use it as a crude way to measure wheel fitness, but the chi square test is more efficient.

Scepticus,

Wheel bias does not require a tilt or an off level wheel.  Some extremely biased wheels can be quite level.

 A bias wheel is usually defect spotted, before any numbers are tracked, by a trained AP and/or someone with experience in wheel assembly, maintenance,  etc. Simply writing a lot of numbers can work, but it's terribly ineffcient.

In vb, a different type of AP play, a persistent drop helps.  By the way, I've noticed that you don’t understand the difference between the two types of roulette AP play and often confuse the two.

I noticed your comment about mathematicians and Thorp.  He was by no means the first vb player. He was merely published.  There's history of vb players aka "wheel watchers", going back into the very early 1900s.  (Yes, way back before computers. 

Just curious...do you know how many of us either minored in math or are actual mathematicians, engineers, and or computer scientists on the rouletteplace AP forum?  (Fyi..I don't consider myself to be a mathematician.)

-Real

[mod note: Please respect this forum you post on and do not imply it (or its members) is inferior to other forums. Thank you.]
« Last Edit: June 06, 2015, 07:48:51 PM by kav »
 

scepticus

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2015, 09:18:41 PM »
What I KNOW,  REAL/ MOMU, is that there are MORE than two AP methods for roulette .
What I KNOW, REAL/MOMU,  is that Ed. Thorp is the first recorded person to use a COMPUTER for calculating Blackjack AP .Due to his employment he had access to Bell Labs. massive computer .  What I KNOW ,REAL MOMU,is that he was not the first to suss that Blackjack could be beaten by maths. What stirred Thorp into seriously studying  Blackjack was when  the Baldwin group published their findings .From what I remember Thorp borrowed their findings to analyse them in a computer.
As usual you rush too quickly to judgement.
 

scepticus

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #23 on: June 11, 2015, 11:54:13 PM »
Calling Mike - Come In Mike - and give us your promised thread on why Method betting is invalid and AP is the ONLY valid way of tackling roulette.
This is the 3rd disappointment I have encountered with my critics.
REAL claimed that my Nine Blocks were worthless .I claim that they do fulfill the guarantee of 3 correct in 4 and asked him his proof that it does not . I am still waiting for his proof.
Slacker claimed that ANY system could be programmed. I asked him to programme my Double Dozen syatem.I am still waiting.
And now Mike promised to start a new thread that would prove that Method Betting is invalid and AP is valid. I am still waiting.He has posted on other threads in this forum so has come back from his trip.
Come on guys. prove that you are not balloons - full of hot air and little else !
 

GameNeverOver

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2015, 12:00:01 AM »
Calling Mike - Come In Mike - and give us your promised thread on why Method betting is invalid and AP is the ONLY valid way of tackling roulette.
This is the 3rd disappointment I have encountered with my critics.
REAL claimed that my Nine Blocks were worthless .I claim that they do fulfill the guarantee of 3 correct in 4 and asked him his proof that it does not . I am still waiting for his proof.
Slacker claimed that ANY system could be programmed. I asked him to programme my Double Dozen syatem.I am still waiting.
And now Mike promised to start a new thread that would prove that Method Betting is invalid and AP is valid. I am still waiting.He has posted on other threads in this forum so has come back from his trip.
Come on guys. prove that you are not balloons - full of hot air and little else !

[/size]Their statements are invalid - they know it. And proving the opposite is hardly achievable. So, if you are still waiting - you'll spend your life waiting.. :)[size=78%]
 

Mike

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #25 on: June 12, 2015, 06:07:06 AM »
scepticus,

Real and I have already shown in our posts why AP is valid and system play isn't, but I will summarize the pros and cons of both strategies in a thread later today. I do have a life outside this forum you know!

I'm not kidding myself that you guys will roll over and admit that you are wrong, that will never happen. The system methodology is like a religion, and no amount of reasoning will "convert" you. If you deny the validity of mathematics and logic then what hope is there? it's a non-starter.

But still, I think it's worth doing for all the newbies or agnostics. The fact that you're even asking shows that you may be a little open-minded to the possibility that you may be wrong and the AP guys are correct.

I may not be able to "prove" that AP works, but I can certainly demonstrate that any system, ANY system you or anyone else can dream up won't work. This is because a system, as long as it consists of a list of mechanical rules, can be simulated. But then, some of you even deny that simulations are valid, so it's heads you win, tails I lose.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2015, 06:09:00 AM by Mike »
 

scepticus

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #26 on: June 12, 2015, 01:19:31 PM »
You have made some posts in this forum recently so you have had ample time  to post your " analysis ",As for
not convincing us - that is a two way street.You guys stick religiously to your AP belief. Yes, I am open to discussion but what  I usually  get from the AP camp is abuse posing as  argument.
Your statement that both you and REAL have previously pointed out the differences between Method and AP indicates that your offer to start a thread was spurious or at least muddled thinking.
I am only prepared to defend my own method /s and I would be obliged if you state clearly the basics of your method which does not use a computer.
So start your promised thread .
 

Mike

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2015, 01:35:39 PM »
scepticus,

Who are you to decide whether I have had "ample time" or not? I am working on the post and will publish it when I'm ready. I hope you have more patience at the roulette tables.

AP's don't rely on faith, but physics, so their way is not a religion.
 

Jesper

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #28 on: June 12, 2015, 01:40:24 PM »
scepticus,

Who are you to decide whether I have had "ample time" or not? I am working on the post and will publish it when I'm ready. I hope you have more patience at the roulette tables.

AP's don't rely on faith, but physics, so their way is not a religion.

You may talk about Newtonian physics. Today with all theories like string theory using 11 dimensions, are you so modern, you abandon Newton. He is about the age of roulette.
 

Real

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Re: The flawed Advantage Play System (by scepticus)
« Reply #29 on: June 13, 2015, 04:25:03 PM »
whiff...
« Last Edit: June 21, 2015, 03:41:47 PM by Real »