### Author Topic: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?  (Read 4792 times)

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#### Reyth

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##### Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« on: May 09, 2015, 09:08:18 PM »
I recently thought that 16B spins to test outcomes of certain events in roulette (and other forms of gambling) was pretty special.

But now I have moved into testing to the 100's of TRILLIONS and its amazing what is revealed.  One thing I like is how change definitely slows down when you are in the trillions whereas change is still a noticeable event (though isolated and infrequent) in the billions.

Now that I have figured out how to bypass the limitations of my computer to process as many spins as I wish, there is no limit!

I wonder what I will discover as I continue with this intriguing statistical survey and will I ever stop investigating while still having access to my computer?

#### kav

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##### Re: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2015, 02:44:30 AM »
I always wondered in how many quadrillions of spins one would actually observe a number repeating 30 times

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2015, 03:15:40 AM »

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2015, 03:20:40 AM »
I always wondered in how many quadrillions of spins one would actually observe a number repeating 30 times

Maybe one day we can say "this event is relatively guaranteed because we haven't seen anything that holds for X number of spins in recorded history".

You know that reminds me about Keno and how nobody has won the full 10 payout ever...

#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2015, 07:50:26 AM »
Reyth study my short and long run theory. The resuls of long run samples are predictable.
Test my HG strategy for a 1M sample.
Only a strategy can beat the roulette!!!!

#### kav

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##### Re: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2015, 07:57:59 AM »
Reyth study my short and long run theory. The resuls of long run samples are predictable.
Test my HG strategy for a 1M sample.
Only a strategy can beat the roulette!!!!
Is this strategy explained clear and in detail, in a cohesive manner, somewhere or is it a secret?

#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2015, 08:15:02 AM »
No the HG strategy is not secret and also published on this forum.
Start e betting session after a certain unbalance of the roulette and stop the betting session after a profit.
Again and again and again
A statistic unbalance will always return to the balance. The length of the sessions are unpredictable but not infinite. The longer the sample the longer the length of the sessions.
See my diagrams of long run samples

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2015, 10:13:11 AM »
No the HG strategy is not secret and also published on this forum.
Start e betting session after a certain unbalance of the roulette and stop the betting session after a profit.
Again and again and again
A statistic unbalance will always return to the balance. The length of the sessions are unpredictable but not infinite. The longer the sample the longer the length of the sessions.
See my diagrams of long run samples
You are claiming this for years and it happens to read one of your posts on another forum when someone asked you "why to quit after 1 unit profit?"
For example I'm another player who sees this unbalance the very moment you gain 1 unit and finish your session.
So I start my session when you finish yours,does it makes sense to quit when this unbalance still exists?
Also another thing,the endless stream of results doesn't start and finish when you start and finish your session!
Let's say you sit on the roulette table and after 50 results,you see an unbalance of 15% and 5 streak for the favored side,so you expect to balance it out and you bet for the opposite side,BUT what if before you start your session there was an unbalance of 30% against the other side,which you are going to bet against now??
The unbalance which you are not aware is much greater than the one you aware,so if you seek for the short term balance,you are a loser before hand in my opinion.
This happens because we can never see the WHOLE picture!
Our reality is only a tiny fragment of what really is the COMPLETE "picture".
So do I believe in balance? Yes,BUT not in the way most of the players are interpreting it.
If you managed to win all those years is purely coinsidental in my point of view.

#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2015, 01:39:50 PM »
The idea is not making money. Stop after one unit profit is a certainty to make profit. Ofcourse you can wager till the wave cross the balance point. The risk is, that that can take a very long number of spins.

You cannot find on internet ,I claim this idea as a practical HG

My long run study has never shown your example. In theory it can happen.

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2015, 03:05:07 PM »
Not to make money?! Then what? Eggs??!
It doesn't have a point if you cannot make profit a habit.
I don't know about you but I don't enjoy when I'm losing but when I'm winning.

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Probability Testing -- How Many Spins Is Good Enough?
« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2015, 03:46:42 PM »
I like his idea about "imbalance always returning to balance" and if he only makes 1 unit profit reliably, we can use a larger unit size and if a grind is profitable for a unit, I certainly don't mind that grind.