### Author Topic: does someone has an average of sleepers bets on roulette ;  (Read 33490 times)

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#### palestis

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##### Re: does someone has an average of sleepers bets on roulette ;
« Reply #105 on: April 12, 2015, 03:06:41 AM »

Realistically, after BBB how many times in consecutive situations, do you think that you will see another set of BBBB? will you see it once? Twice? 5 times in 5 consecutive situations?

You can use probability to find the chance of ANY event. For example, 87.5% of streaks are of length 1, 2 or 3, so a RRRR or BBBB or longer will occur only 100 - 87.5% = 12.5% of the time. This means that for two consecutive streaks of 4 or more, the chance is 0.125 x 0.125 = 0.015625 or 1 in 64. With three consecutive streaks the probability is 1 in 512.

Real will dismiss your arguments as irrelevant though. For him, the only thing that matters is that the house edge means you will get paid less than fair odds, so all stats and probability is useless if you can't predict better than expectation where the ball will land. In his view, that's the only kind of real edge you can get in roulette.
There you go.
Imagine losing a to a situation of 3 consecutive streaks? or 4 or 5? The probability is so small it doesn't  even count. On top of that we said nothing about the bet amounts. All you know is the probability to lose. But it doesn't say anything about what amount you will lose when you lose and what amount you'll win when you win.
Can you determine the specific streak out of the next 4 , in which  you will lose playing with \$1 chips,  and then in which streak you will lose with \$5 chips etc. etc. You can't. It cannot be determined with probability. It's a discretionary quantity and can be altered according the  player's wish.
The fact is that as you encounter more and more consecutive streaks the probability becomes smaller and smaller. And the house edge becomes obsolete. The experienced player knows when to bet more so he can have 99.99999% winning chances as opposed to betting less when the chances are lower.
Is there a doubt that when you decide in advance how many consecutive spins to play, you are bound by the probability of series?
If there is a doubt about that, then we need a math expert's opinion. Real claims that every bet is considered an individual separate event. That's where he is wrong,
and that's y he values the house edge so much.
As far talking about having the edge over the casino, y does he fail to be specific? Instead, all he says is "beating the device" is the way to go. .
I can easily claim that I have psychic powers, and I can predict the region where the ball will fall.
When he starts backing  up his claims with examples, then we can see if what he says makes sense.
But for now all I see is that casinos go to great extends to insure that the wheel  works perfectly with no defects whatsoever. Maybe Real plays in casinos where wheel maintenance doesn't exist.
No such thing in European casinos.

#### Real

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##### Re: does someone has an average of sleepers bets on roulette ;
« Reply #106 on: April 12, 2015, 06:06:51 PM »
Palestis,

Why don't we simply agree that in your world, "La La Land", the laws off physics, math and probability, cease to apply.  (Since you don’t comprehend how to calculate probability.)

By the way can anyone else help Palestis answer the probability questions, since he doesn't know how to answer them?
« Last Edit: April 12, 2015, 06:31:42 PM by Real »

#### palestis

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##### Re: does someone has an average of sleepers bets on roulette ;
« Reply #107 on: April 13, 2015, 03:22:43 AM »
Palestis,

Why don't we simply agree that in your world, "La La Land", the laws off physics, math and probability, cease to apply.  (Since you don’t comprehend how to calculate probability.)

By the way can anyone else help Palestis answer the probability questions, since he doesn't know how to answer them?
As usual, when you are cornered, you answers become evasive and too general. Today's roulettes are state of the art in design and working condition. Regularly checked and maintained to perfection. And monitored by software. So leave the physics part out , as this the biggest gambler's fallacy there is.
If you want to talk about physics BE SPECIFIC. You never were specific. The word "physics" doesn't mean  a thing, unless you elaborate how it applies in roulette. But you never did.
It used to be that in this forum members would post systems, and other members responded with analysis's. It doesn't happen anymore. And that's too bad.
Instead, it's the same routine over and over again. A member will post something and from a system forum suddenly it becomes a boring exchange of the same words. "gambler's fallacy". And "learn probability".
I just don't understand how someone is allowed to repeat the same thing 1000 times, driving the forum in directions that shouldn't go. While having nothing else to offer as an alternative.
It's too bad that there aren't any good ideas being offered here for analysis any more, because members got tired of the same boring answers they read over and over again.
I think more than roulette this is the part that you have the most expertise. To drive members out of forums.
Nobody wants to hear the same thing all the time. It's  too booooooring.

#### Real

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##### Re: does someone has an average of sleepers bets on roulette ;
« Reply #108 on: April 13, 2015, 07:54:09 AM »
Palestis,

Are you not able to answer the questions?

Why are you now suddenly trying to change the subject to vb and physics?

Would someone else care to help the boy with the probability questions involving his sytem?

-Real

« Last Edit: April 13, 2015, 07:57:52 AM by Real »

#### palestis

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##### Re: does someone has an average of sleepers bets on roulette ;
« Reply #109 on: April 13, 2015, 10:55:56 PM »
Palestis,

Are you not able to answer the questions?

Why are you now suddenly trying to change the subject to vb and physics?

Would someone else care to help the boy with the probability questions involving his sytem?

-Real
I am not going to fall again for your same boring discussion that leads to nothing,
The rules have changed.
Lets get off the same boring routine and lets get on with systems and systems discussions, so members can find something interesting to  stay in the forum, and attract new members who's contributions can be valuable.
Opposing opinions are welcome, but not your kind.
We've heard them 1000 times, and they are no no longer of any value.  Not that they ever were.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2015, 10:59:36 PM by palestis »

#### palestis

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##### Re: does someone has an average of sleepers bets on roulette ;
« Reply #110 on: April 13, 2015, 10:56:48 PM »
Palestis,

Are you not able to answer the questions?

Why are you now suddenly trying to change the subject to vb and physics?

Would someone else care to help the boy with the probability questions involving his sytem?

-Real
« Last Edit: April 13, 2015, 10:58:47 PM by palestis »

#### Real

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##### Re: does someone has an average of sleepers bets on roulette ;
« Reply #111 on: April 14, 2015, 05:20:22 PM »
Palestis,

You claimed that the probability was something different than it actually was by using your virtual limits.  Can you show how it has changed or not?

#### palestis

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##### Re: does someone has an average of sleepers bets on roulette ;
« Reply #112 on: April 14, 2015, 08:49:29 PM »
Palestis,

You claimed that the probability was something different than it actually was by using your virtual limits.  Can you show how it has changed or not?
I don't claim anything about probability. All my results have been proven on the field for a long time now. I doubt if anything is going to change any time soon. If I am unlucky to run to the rare exception, I quit the system early and therefore the casino has no chance to claim back what was taken from them. They will only take back a very small portion, which is easily recoverable in the few next sessions.
All the math I need is, to come up with a probability of the most frequent winning range depending on each particular system. That's good enough for me. Y bother with theoretical scenarios that don't seem to be able to force their intended weight in the short run?
« Last Edit: April 16, 2015, 12:16:36 PM by palestis »