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Author Topic: If each spin is truly independent why is it  (Read 1046 times)

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double zero

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If each spin is truly independent why is it
« on: March 13, 2018, 05:16:52 AM »
that the same number NEVER comes out more than a few times consecutively?

 
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Mike

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2018, 09:40:43 AM »
Because the probabilities for such events are very small. It has nothing to do with independence.
 

Janusz

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2018, 03:26:43 PM »
that the same number NEVER comes out more than a few times consecutively?

Because it is so independend that it is even independend from your range of imagination
 

Sputnik

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2018, 03:46:57 PM »


It depends how you define independent - assume some one simulate SD grow stronger and weaker.
Then can you define a limit for the bell curve during your life time playing?
After several million simulations so has the SD never reach 6.0.
Then you know that between for example 3.0 and 6.0 there will be regression towards the mean.
I am not saying you can explore that or get any kind of advantage!
Just saying that during your life time playing the game there will be some limits towards what random can and can not do.

A math or statistical person could argue that you can see 300 Reds happen - but that is just silly nonsense.
You need to make a reality check when you talk about what happens and what does not happen during several million trails simulation - but then again some one could simulate a billion times and break the million record.
But this is fiction and have nothing to do with reality.

Cheers
« Last Edit: March 13, 2018, 03:48:48 PM by Sputnik »
 
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Mike

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2018, 07:09:24 PM »
But you can't make the argument that because you don't SEE 300 reds in a row, spins must be dependent. You don't see it not because random has any limits, but only because the probability is infinitesimal.

But at least you're making the connection that there must be a limit if spins are to be dependent, which is true. Take Blackjack; one of the ways to make card-counting harder is to increase the number of decks, which "dilutes" the dependency. With a 100 decks, the game would be one of essentially independent trials. With 1 deck the limit is very evident and the closer you get to it the less random the game becomes (dependency increases). But don't confuse tiny sequential probabilities with limits to randomness. Roulette is like Blackjack with an infinite number of decks - you never get closer to any limit.

I know one of Turbo's favourite slogans is "random has limits", but he's wrong.  ::)
« Last Edit: March 13, 2018, 07:11:03 PM by Mike »
 

GIAJJENNO

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2018, 07:13:19 PM »
You said that random has limits, and the probability is infinitesimal.

Yes, you are right, but based on these suggessions, cant we to turn somehow the casinos house edge?
 
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Fyodor

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2018, 08:59:47 PM »
An unusual sequence will always screw with your head!
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2018, 10:10:09 PM »
You said that random has limits, and the probability is infinitesimal.

Yes, you are right, but based on these suggessions, cant we to turn somehow the casinos house edge?
Yes we can. Random is random only for these who can not be bothered to see pattern.
   We can attack device served to provide the game instead of the game itself. Ball don't jump more the 27 pokets  ( super maximum) on majority of spins. Normally it's half wheel that we can clearly define( high probability zone).
  So you already know where ball may jump... just need predict to the diamond. This part of work taken care by vusual ballistic. 
 

The Bedsit Botter

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2018, 10:38:43 PM »
Yes we can. Random is random only for these who can not be bothered to see pattern.

I do believe that statement proves you're also suffering from Apophenia.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2018, 11:09:28 PM »
If you are not a doctor... then you need medical attention yourself. Are you a doctor?
    Sims you only understood the sentence you qwoted...
« Last Edit: March 13, 2018, 11:12:01 PM by MrPerfect. »
 

Janusz

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2018, 09:53:12 AM »
The true answer is in this question:

What forces randomness to fulfill the statistical facts?
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2018, 10:21:33 AM »
If it's really random , nothing force it to do anything. If it's biased enough,  bias will "force" some "limits".
   Problem with random roulette devices is that they are very random. Much more then many realise. ... "statistical facts" as you call them can not be forced on these. Especially so, if your target not numbers itself , but some felt  locations. Felt locatons are too much dispersed on the wheel, it make them quite a bit more random then wheel locations.
 

Reyth

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2018, 10:35:11 AM »
There is the Physics of Statistics as Harry J used to say. :)
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2018, 10:47:45 AM »
And?
 

Mike

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Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2018, 11:07:11 AM »
I don't even know what that means. The statistics of physics is possible, but the physics of statistics??

Quote
What forces randomness to fulfill the statistical facts?

The geometry and/or physics of the device which generates the numbers.