Author Topic: Senor Perfecto!  (Read 952 times)

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Reyth

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Senor Perfecto!
« on: March 05, 2018, 05:25:18 AM »
Hey! 

One time you suggested to me that hot numbers can be predicted by their patterns.  I would like to outfit my monitor with a hot number history tracker so that I can see these patterns for myself.  How would you suggest that I format the statistical data?

I will be monitoring the total number of appearences of every number in a rolling 37 spin window.  Any number that appears twice or more will be considered hot.  If I only monitor the total number of spins that it slept prior to the last time it was hot, and how long it remains hot, is that enough?

I will output the data to a text file, how would you format that data?

You might remember me saying that I have no way to detect HOT STREAKS reliably (no better results than just normal variance) and so this is why I ask for your advice.

Thanks in advance!
« Last Edit: March 05, 2018, 05:28:05 AM by Reyth »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2018, 08:47:37 AM »
 Reyth, forget " hot numbers". Money is where biased numbers are.
  To detect bias numbers need to understand baesian probability theorium.  Everything what show more then 3 std is interesting.
   For bias numbers being able to show, you need ball to jump. If ball stops, you can safely ignore such numbers and only focus on these when it jumps. More it jumps, more chances to bias hit.
   That's first factor for you " how much ball jumps on average".
   There are other factors as well... direction of the spin, for example, ball type... ets.
   I like to collect full profile of variables  ( like for vb). Then using factor analysis to determine what is beneficial for my numbers of interest and what no. Obviously,  in play, you do not bet when ball repetitive no jump, or other non beneficial factors are strong.
   One of more interesting factors is type of ball throw... it can be with forward momentum, backward momentum ( back spin..). If you can not at the moment filter type of throw ( no vb experience ), filter by dealer plus your " magic" indicator ( how many times your numbers hit in last " x " spins).
    That's how to do it " by the book"... lots of spins needed..ets.
     You can do as Mr. J sidjested.  Make few charts ( on casino cards) . 6 cards is minimum.
  So you got 3 cards for each ball direction and 1 card for slow rotor, one for medium, 1 for qweak. Just put point on number that hits..  collect few spins 30-60 ( for each card)to see zones that show money.
  This aproach is good in general to see if something is going on. But it has limits...  change( shift) in drop point can change bias numbers location.
     Best practice is to form hypothesis first ( 6 cards) and verify them with posterior ( detailed) data taking. If any of hypothesis hold's consistently - attack & destroy, kill and govern!!! Showtime.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2018, 08:50:17 AM »
Forgot to mention..  l put numbers in column ( one under other), like almost anyone who use excel does.
  If additional variables are taken , l put then on same line with number hitted, just different sell.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2018, 09:16:00 AM »
This 6 card thing it was my first AP method long before l discovered vb or anything related to AP in general.
   To make it work :
 Need tilted wheel. Ball should make more hits on high point of tilt and long jumps ( this thing is periodical..) just run a chart of how often ball jumps lots, if it stops where hits often, stop play and wait.  Spiners are included in the chart , stops not.
   If you see 2 zones on the chart , often 9 poket appart- it's interesting. Choose best numbers in these zones and play negative progression.
   One more time , carefully look ball jumping. If it starts to stop where hit( due to back spin, atm.conditions), stop play and observe.
    Test for few sessions. It will work only on specific type of bias wheel's.  Good news, around 60% of wheels in general are qualifted. 
 
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Horsewill

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2018, 03:40:09 PM »
Reyth, I hope you are able to accomplish this. It would be interesting to see how close Palestis method described in the  "Betting on Hot Numbers" thread to the mathematical model. If you recall it bets every twice repeater in 18 spins and then bets each for 26 spins.  I still have excellent results with this method of play. Sometimes it does require some longer sessions.   
 
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Reyth

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2018, 09:11:28 AM »
Yes I like his system very much along with Mr. J's. 

What I would like to be able to accomplish is to establish a statistical model where I can say when A, B & C are true, it is more likely than random for a hit to occur BASED ON AN EXISTING HOT STREAK. 

So I guess I am trying to find out parameters that will indicate that hot numbers will CONTINUE to be hot and indicators when it is less likely for them to do so.

Like, what is it about hit results that would suggest that certain numbers will hit before expectation or cease hitting before expectation?
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2018, 11:33:15 AM »
Hot numbers... hm... let me think... ok,
  Your "A" , if number was "hot" previously in history. ..
"B" will be for how long it remain hot on average or something found with repetetive hits/ skips..
"C"... if it hits now with expected frequency in "x" spins
"D" wich numbers are likely to be "hot" while your number is hot
 "E" wich numbers combination is more likely to produce hits over expectation with minimum skips....
    Why you wanna be lazy on such a difficult way? Choosing parameters physical way is more easy. 
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2018, 12:01:00 PM »
Reyth, you got to understand. ... stats based on numbers only is possible,  but such analysis still presume that all physical variables are same and nothing changed on the wheel ( maintenance,  clining sycles,  rotation of numbers, ball...ets).
   If all parts of device and ball/ spinning habits are same, then such analysis may be reliable to some degree, that's how early bias players used to play it. Besides, all of them were with a degree in ingeniring and math, brilliant individuals.  Yes it may have a chance to work, but require titanical effort in data collection. Like 10k numbers to form hypotesys and other 10k to confirm them. Many autors at the time were speaking about 30k, 50k numbers.....
   Qwestion of the day is " who wanna bother?" , with current casino avareness it's unreasonable.
    The deeper you go into multivariable stats math modeling , less data you need, higher edges are on offer. What you are attempting to do is like shooting yourself in the foot!!! You ignore money in roulette and force your method over the wheel itself. Wheels are benevolent only for these who follow, no need go egainst trend, it's a bad idea. It's like a dance, you follow rithm.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2018, 12:55:33 PM »
    Why you wanna be lazy on such a difficult way? Choosing parameters physical way is more easy.

I can't help it.  It wasn't laziness that allowed me to discover that RNG must produce bias but it certainly is "laziness" that prevents me from using physical bias methods. :)

.
"B" will be for how long it remain hot on average or something found with repetetive hits/ skips..
"C"... if it hits now with expected frequency in "x" spins

So you track a running average of streak length over the entire session?

The trigger is that it comes back at expectation, i.e. 1 hit in 35 spins?
« Last Edit: March 06, 2018, 12:58:42 PM by Reyth »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2018, 01:42:41 PM »
No!!! It would be over 2-300 spins time interval ( same direction assumed). Forget 36 spins, it show nothing. And it should be better ratio...like 1:15 on average to be interesting.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2018, 01:46:14 PM »
BTW,  " rinning average " l got from you. It one more time show that anyones ideas can be valid. It's most valuable aquisition l got from this forum. VERY BIG THANKS ONE MORE TIME. Love you Reyth, don't get me wrong...
 
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Reyth

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2018, 01:58:17 PM »
Yes!  I have learned techniques from AP players here too! :D

1) I only bet the selection that has the highest "running average" (hits to spins ratio), which is a fancy way of saying the selection with the highest number of total hits over the entire play sequence

2) You have a pre-qualification of this selection remaining for at least a 200 spin timeframe -- no problem there, I have logged many sessions with greater spin counts; only dispersion will interrupt it

Ok, so that still leaves the question of the trigger.  I know the biased selection, it has remained so for an extended period, so what is the trigger that a streak is likely to begin AND continue that is greater than random?

You see my most reliable triggers always must include an element of gapping.  Any exclusively positive activity will tend to nullify the trigger but not always.  If certain numbers remain in a gap state, the entire selection will remain valid for betting and will become even better for betting the longer the numbers remain gapped; i.e. disparity
« Last Edit: March 06, 2018, 02:00:40 PM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2018, 02:09:55 PM »
Reyth
AP  do use triggers . They don't bet straight away. They WAIT  for the "Right Conditions " so when the" Right Conditions " happen they then have their trigger .
 

Reyth

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2018, 02:21:06 PM »
Right, but the thing is, we both do similar things and are looking for similar things.  Both schools want a greater probability of getting a hit and are looking for a reason to make the decision to bet. :)
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Senor Perfecto!
« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2018, 02:31:02 PM »
Key to see it in right light is " statistical significance".
   If something trigers,  it continue to do so reliable. .. that's a beauty of physical triggers.
   So physical trigger is present- we bet, not present- we collect data. It's a key to " if steak continue" , cos we got cause - effect relationship wich we verified till statistical evidence level.
   Simple as an onion...
 
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