### Author Topic: Start of play. What table?  (Read 999 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

#### Reyth

• Global Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 4393
• Thanked: 1614 times
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #15 on: February 13, 2018, 08:16:43 PM »
During hard-core manual testing I will usually get that hellion within a few days to a week.  The best way to handle it is to examine the entire sequence and prevent it from happening in the future.

Recovery methods do not exist in a bubble, they are directly interrelated with bet amounts/unit sizing, bet selection, progressions and bankroll.

The best solution is to design a system with one goal in mind:

https://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1855.msg26371#msg26371

« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 08:24:25 PM by Reyth »

The following users thanked this post: MickyP

#### MickyP

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1220
• Thanked: 528 times
• Gender:
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2018, 08:25:03 PM »

#### Reyth

• Global Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 4393
• Thanked: 1614 times
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2018, 08:28:39 PM »
We have all experienced what Eddy has experienced.

#### MickyP

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1220
• Thanked: 528 times
• Gender:
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #18 on: February 13, 2018, 08:30:33 PM »
I can show you my scars...lol

#### scepticus

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2585
• Thanked: 576 times
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #19 on: February 13, 2018, 09:44:20 PM »
The main aim of the gambler is to profit from his betting and that can only be done in the actual practice of betting at the table - B&M or online.
Mathematicians only say that we are likely to lose over time. They agree that we can win in the short term .
I'll take that .

#### MickyP

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1220
• Thanked: 528 times
• Gender:
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #20 on: February 14, 2018, 08:32:43 PM »
Getting an overall win or reaching a "new high" in the short run is what most systems are expected to do. However, this is easier said than done in reality. If a system has the potential to lose in the long run then it has the potential to lose from the first spin. This is a fact. So how do we prevent a total loss on an outing to the casino?
You know how many units you will require to play one session. Multiply this by the amount of sessions you plan on playing and add the value of one more session to make up your total bankroll. Example: bankroll required for one session is 50 units. You plan to play five sessions; 50 units X 5 sessions = 250 plus one extra session bankroll = 300 units. The last 50 units remains in your pocket as cash. To always walk out of the casino with cash in your pocket is a psychological boost. Always be prepared for life.
If the run from he'll strikes you five times in a row you will be richer only for the experience. Some players advocate that if you're on a winning streak you should carry on playing and milk the cow for what  it's worth. I disagree. Set win goals per session and when you reach the win goal stop play immediately.
Your whole game has to be a planned and structured exercise. Discipline is key to success. Accept a session loss and move on. If you remain on track and do not compromise your plan then you have a chance at success.

#### Reyth

• Global Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 4393
• Thanked: 1614 times
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #21 on: February 14, 2018, 10:30:06 PM »
That sounds like a flat betting recovery method.  We don't have to use flat betting (unit sizing) when recovering.  Just sayin'

#### scepticus

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2585
• Thanked: 576 times
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #22 on: February 15, 2018, 12:34:51 AM »
Sounds more like a stop-loss strategy to me  Reyth - and not necessarily Flat Betting.
I largely agree with  Micky here but not with taking extra money that you have no intention of betting.
Nor would I take 5 Table Stakes . 2 or 3 at most -  I take only two- come Hell or High Water .
I think we need to be bolder  and accept a total loss  if  Random is against us.

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

#### MickyP

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1220
• Thanked: 528 times
• Gender:
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2018, 06:07:40 AM »
Each to his own Scepticus.
No method has been suggested but maybe in my example I should have used a higher session bankroll. Didn't intend confusing anyone. I just tried to keep it simple so everyone could understand.

A run from hell will always beat the unprepared player.
Why?
Chasing losses - gamblers fallacy.
Weak or untested method.
Deviating from your plan (ill discipline).

Fyodor and others have indicated the benefits of being a disciplined player.
Palestis single dozen method is a cash cow for the disciplined player.

#### Reyth

• Global Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 4393
• Thanked: 1614 times
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #24 on: February 15, 2018, 06:39:28 AM »
If we can make the chances of a successive sequence that will completely beat us rare enough to be a once in a lifetime event, we have a practical HG.  By completely beat us, I mean beat all of our recovery attempts successively and faster than we can recover.

I find calculating the actual probabilities here to be extremely difficult by simulation and to my mind math as well IF one is willing to properly apply cumulative probability to the calculations (which is the only way to be accurate); no matter how you try and calculate it, the iterations are far too many to deal with.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2018, 06:45:05 AM by Reyth »

#### MickyP

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1220
• Thanked: 528 times
• Gender:
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #25 on: February 15, 2018, 07:47:04 AM »
Good point Reyth.
Even if a system is a 99.9% winner I still advocate a safe approach. More risk spreading than risk reduction.
Spreading your risk into sessions is a practical solution. Trying to reduce the risk is in many cases a futile exercise. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
If I set my game to 5 sessions and I lose one, the four wins should give me a profit depending on my play.
If I set my game at 2 sessions and I lose the first, I will have to reset the parameters of my second session to ensure a profit. If I lose the second session I may not realise a profit for the day.

Being a bold player is flirting with disaster. Why be so careless?

#### scepticus

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2585
• Thanked: 576 times
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #26 on: February 15, 2018, 09:38:23 AM »
Why should being a bold player lead to disaster, Micky ? You seem only be talking from a Progressive Player's point of view . I am  a Flat Bet player and have CONFIDENCE in my betting . I reject the notion that Bankroll Management
is superior to Bet Selection.If you don't bet winners then no Bankroll  Management  will save you.
And isn't Risk Spreading  a form  of  Risk Reduction ?

#### MickyP

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1220
• Thanked: 528 times
• Gender:
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #27 on: February 15, 2018, 09:58:00 AM »
Being bold implies that you are expecting a win...come hell or high waters; all or nothing doesn't work for me
Expecting a win because of your bet selection can very well be gamblers fallacy at work.

#### scepticus

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2585
• Thanked: 576 times
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #28 on: February 15, 2018, 04:12:45 PM »
Now you have me scratching my head Micky .
I don't do " All or Nothing " which is different from being aware that if Random is against you you MAY lose  ALL of your Table Bankroll . If you don't understand that you know little about  the nuances  of  Gambling .
Why do you  bet if you don't  EXPECT to win ? I EXPECT to win - it is just that I don't know WHEN . If only  !

#### MickyP

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1220
• Thanked: 528 times
• Gender:
##### Re: Start of play. What table?
« Reply #29 on: February 15, 2018, 05:00:07 PM »
Wow, another game of musical chairs.

We have different styles of play. I'm happy with the way I gamble because I understand what I'm up against.