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Author Topic: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?  (Read 2097 times)

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Real

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2018, 06:19:53 PM »


Since you don't like the answer provided by your resident pros on this forum....why don't you post your question on the wizardofvegas.com?  There are more mathematicians on there than there are cops in a doughnut shop!  And you can get some completely unbiased opinions!
« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 06:23:11 PM by Real »
 

kav

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2018, 06:25:03 PM »
Real, why don't YOU ask there?
And we will compare our answers tomorrow.
Just make sure they know what is a mathematical proof.

This is the kind of mathematics, the mathematicians I asked, eat for breakfast
 

Jesper

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2018, 06:25:29 PM »
I sometimes bet over 1000 bets a session, and I can tell 10000 is not so many at NOZ rng, which can run six spins a minute. I very often need many hundreds of spins to end with a win. I have done 1744 sessions whitout a loss.

I can be down many 1000 or more sometimes, and it can take days to come back. The play may give small wins a session, but the 1744 is together  at least  20000  Euro. Ok since near a half a year.

I could lose any of the play, but did not.

Using a math formula this should not work, the formula tells what is common but not that's must be so.
 

scepticus

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2018, 06:28:11 PM »
LOL
Real
Post on a forum where they  discuss  baccarat-  another game where the HE operates ?
And your sieve- like memory fails  you again when you fail to remember that I  was banned from it because i forgot my password  !
Incidentally. I now place you as an engineer . I have now rejected a salesman as he would be more subtle in his replies.
Why don't YOU post your version of AP in a Physics ? Because you would be ridiculed ?
« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 06:31:30 PM by scepticus »
 

MickyP

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2018, 06:28:33 PM »
Just so this post doesn't seem out of place;

Kav, you called him Read... Does he?
« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 06:32:45 PM by MickyP »
 

Real

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #20 on: February 06, 2018, 06:31:15 PM »
No, just picture books.  Shiny colorful pictures are my favorite. 8)
« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 06:33:39 PM by Real »
 
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scepticus

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2018, 06:34:29 PM »
With Patterns ?
 
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MickyP

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #22 on: February 06, 2018, 06:39:07 PM »
And press buttons to TRIGGER the accompanying song hahaha
 
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Mike

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #23 on: February 06, 2018, 07:02:19 PM »
Mike
You agree that the "When  " cannot be identified . As humans we don't live till " infinity " which means that we can win more than we lose but this cannot be proved until " When " happens.

scepticus,

The law of large numbers is empirical, which means it does apply to the real world. Infinity is a mathematical concept and doesn't exist in the real world.  "When" can be identified, but of course it's subject to error, so it will be plus or minus this error.
 

MickyP

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2018, 07:05:48 PM »
In other words a guesstimate .
 

Real

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #25 on: February 06, 2018, 07:07:27 PM »
Probability confidence levels.
 

scepticus

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #26 on: February 06, 2018, 07:18:28 PM »
So. Mike, " Identify " "WHEN" an 8/1 shot on a 37numbered wheel will meet it's demise .
Doesn't "Subject to error  " mean that you cannot be certain ?
 

Mike

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #27 on: February 07, 2018, 12:27:15 PM »
scepticus,

It's not correct to ask when a system will "meet its demise" because it may do that right from the first spin. The law of large numbers tells you that the probability will converge to its "true" value after a certain number of spins, with some degree of certainty (which you can make as high as you like). The standard C.I. (confidence interval) is 95%, which applied to your 8/1 bet gives 214,268 spins. If you increase the C.I. to 99% you will need 5 times as many spins.

When betting on more numbers, the number of spins needed is much less before convergence happens. For example, a 2 dozen bet will converge within about 14,000 spins, again with C.I. = 95%.

And these are conservative estimates. If you wrote a computer simulation you would find that the probability would converge MORE than 95% of the time.
 

scepticus

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #28 on: February 07, 2018, 04:45:12 PM »
, Mike.
I know that I can lose quickly. which is why I take only a certain  amount to a table- but that is my table bank  and not my total bank ( whatever that may be  ! ).
What I  am questioning is your claim that I will CERTAINLY lose my bank at some future point. I asked you to  tell me  WHEN that future point is .You have failed to do so . Why not ? I think it is because you cannot . Do you agree ?
What you AP guys fail to see is that all Gambling  entails  uncertainties  which means that we can only guess at any future outcome.
In the real world all gamblers, AP or System players , have only a finite time at the tables and so only a SHORT betting  time  If it is admitted that we can win in the short time  why do you AP insist that we can't  ? You claim too
much .
 

scepticus

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #29 on: February 07, 2018, 05:01:23 PM »
Mike
Someone posted the calculations for a number of bets . His calculation for a Quad ( an 8/1 shot ) to appear  was 40.25    for 99% certainty. Progressive players would  be interested to know if his or yours is the correct calculation.
Do you still stick to 214 thou.Plus ?
The LLN  refers to " uneducated  bets " so is perhaps does  not have the  certainty you claim for it.