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Author Topic: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?  (Read 2106 times)

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Mike

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One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« on: February 06, 2018, 09:01:02 AM »
Kav wrote:

One can not prove that a system cannot win. First one has to prove that the numbers/bets that the system suggests will lose. And one can not predict, let alone prove, that one bet will lose.

The best they can try to prove is that if 1000 players played a system for 1000 spins each, then more than 50% of the players will be losers. I haven't seen anyone actually prove this, but this would be an interesting exercise. But to prove that some ONE will lose by playing a specific system is impossible, because that would require to know the spins beforehand.

Oh, and house edge and Average Expectation is not a proof by itself that a specific system will lose in the next say 1000 spins. I'm sure the mathematicians among us understand this.

Kav,

I agree that wecan't know that a particular system will lose in the next 1000 spins, but we can know that it will lose eventually, assuming that you have no edge. This is what negative expectation means. If you disagree, kindly explain why.
 
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Real

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2018, 09:25:38 AM »
At what point does math become subjective and up for debate?  Does it start with addition, subtraction? Or do we begin debating the results when we move onward to multiplication and division?

The reason I ask is we can handily prove most systems will fail using simple arithmetic.

  Some systems perform better than others if they're focused on the wheel, rather than the random game.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 09:29:55 AM by Real »
 

Mike

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2018, 11:25:26 AM »
Not being pedantic here, but arithmetic by itself doesn't prove anything. It's the law of large numbers +  lack of any edge which proves that systems fail. So it's hardly fair to accuse system players of not even understanding simple arithmetic if they don't see why systems can't win. Most neither understand what having an edge means nor the law of large numbers, but they're perfectly capable of doing arithmetic.
 

Real

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2018, 11:44:51 AM »
Proving that progressions can't turn a negatice expectation game into a positive one only requires arithmetic.

Proving that each spin is independent of previous spins only requires addition or counting.

I understand your point as well though.

 

kav

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2018, 03:27:49 PM »
Real,
Obviously you have no academic relation with mathematics. If you had, you would know that the concept of proof, has some very specific requirements, that can not be fulfilled in this case.

Each spin is independent, doesn't prove that a system will fail.
Negative average value and house edge do not prove that a system will fail.

Proving something in mathematics is a very elaborate type of work. You are out of your element here.
 

Mike

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2018, 05:14:39 PM »
Negative average value and house edge do not prove that a system will fail.

Kav,

What about the law of large numbers? If a system can't get an edge then the system is GUARANTEED to fail when the probability converges. How many spins that takes depends on variance and how many numbers you bet, but it WILL happen.

So you need the edge. However, outcomes being independent and equally likely means that this isn't possible; triggers don't work and neither do patterns.
 

scepticus

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2018, 05:21:48 PM »
Once again AP confuse Expectation with Certainty. If you cannot  say WHEN " Eventually " or " The Long Run" will happen then the conclusion that we " Must Lose " is absurd.  "WILL LOSE" or " Guaranteed  to  lose "  cannot be justified in logic. "Expect to lose " is a Probability - not a Certainty .
If players feel that they WILL LOSE " Eventually " they should consult a psychiatrist .
 
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Real

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2018, 05:26:52 PM »


Like it or not, the math and logic prove spins are independent, and that systems that rely on triggers...well you know the rest.  ::)

Why is it the less someone knows about the math/basic probability the more certain they are that history, and the experts are all wrong about their systems???

Makes ya wonder.  ::)

« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 05:31:37 PM by Real »
 

Mike

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2018, 05:32:57 PM »
Once again system players don't understand probability. The law of large numbers GUARANTEES that probabilities will converge to their theoretical values. It does not say exactly WHEN this will happen, because we're dealing with probability, lol. So scepticus, you can't have it both ways.

The convergence does not have to be absolute or accurate to 10 decimal places. Once the probability converges to a value within the "fair" value minus the house edge, you will be losing and never recover. And this needn't take thousands of spins; a system can crash the first time it's used and never get into the black.
 

kav

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2018, 05:42:45 PM »
When I posed this question to true mathematicians, something strange happened.
I asked them if it can be proven that a roulette player will lose after 10K spins.
Because of my wording, they took "lose" as "lose one bet" instead of "lose overall".
Their answer was "it can NOT be mathematically proven that you will lose even one bet in 10K spins", let alone lose overall.

More on this soon...
« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 05:45:41 PM by kav »
 

Real

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2018, 05:43:50 PM »
Triggers too!

All one has to do is to look down and count the number of pockets that remain on the wheel from one spin to the next to see if they change.  If they're all still there then logic should tell you that the triggers ain't working!  ::)

« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 05:45:38 PM by Real »
 

scepticus

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2018, 06:01:56 PM »
Mike
You agree that the "When  " cannot be identified . As humans we don't live till " infinity " which means that we can win more than we lose but this cannot be proved until " When " happens. It is a matter of logic that a prediction  without a timeline is absurd .
If you cannot provide a timeline then Law of Large Numbers does not apply IN REAL LIFE  !
 

Janusz

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2018, 06:02:14 PM »
Kav,

I have a grand idea!  Why don't you pose your question on the wizardofvegas forum?  There are dozens of mathematicians on that forum that will tell you the facts.

Real snowman herb and proofed forums destroyer, answer this question:

What happened to your proof on this subject:
Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.

Did you fail to proof? No ideas? Or did you proff it works cause your proof failed and is still missing.

You are only here to destroy this forum, arenĀ“t you?
 

Real

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2018, 06:08:38 PM »
Janusz,

Posting on this forum is up because of me, not down.  Like it or not, you love me.

 

kav

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Re: One Can Not Prove That A System Cannot Win?
« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2018, 06:14:11 PM »
Mike, I understand your points.
I just want to show that because we talking probabilities here, we can not be certain or "prove" things, just like that, with "simple arithmetic" like Real said.

We can discuss your valid points, but first we must clear the impression and blanket statements, that System players do not understand probabilities and math. By showing that there can not be proof that a roulette player will lose in 10K spins, I want to show that it is them who fanatically claim this, that don't understand probabilities and math and the definition of mathematical proof.

Real, talks about facts and math. He knows math and system players don't. Well, tomorrow I will post the answer of some of the best math guys on the web. They say that "it can NOT be mathematically proven that you will lose even one bet in 10K spins", let alone lose overall.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 06:37:19 PM by kav »