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Author Topic: MY CHALLENGE TO AP  (Read 8888 times)

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MrPerfect.

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #210 on: February 05, 2018, 11:15:05 AM »
It's generally not a good idea to bet every spin.
   Last 2 numbers in theory may belong to different directions of ball ( at least in eu), so you asking to have same numbers good in both directions ( wich is rare). Not only good numbers gonna hit, but others will sometimes as well... it's not a time you wanna bet for repeater. ..
   It's not a type of trigger you generally want use, unless you got reasons to do so on particular wheel you gonna play.
    If you want proper trigers,  copy them from wheel itself, no need to invent anything, wheels are already inventing a lot. Just take some data with physical variables and use these as triggers.
 

Jesper

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #211 on: February 05, 2018, 03:12:13 PM »

First I would say I do not think we can have use of triggers, which refer to history. But that is not the first issue in this post.

If we wait for a run of blacks, let say ten. It is of course
a very little chance it would continue ten more spins.

If we know the probability (1024) of 10 reds, we should also know any row of ten spins are 1/1024. So if we want to play against an event  of ten numbers to not repeat, we do not need to wait some hundreds spins to get a bet, as any ten numbers has the same probability. This is a valid argument it is no use to wait.

Next if any 10 numbers have the same probability, we can bet
the Martingale using any bet selection. We do not lose because
some a rare streak appear (all are 1/1024), rather we lose ten times in a row, which will happen soon or later.

 
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palestis

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #212 on: February 05, 2018, 10:34:33 PM »

And just a thought, if streaks really do become less likely the longer they are, then using a trigger of 2 should perform better than using no trigger, and it would be easier to find 7+ streaks on Weisbaden rather than 10+ streaks. And as I (and Real) keep saying, you should count the number of spins after the trigger until the first win for both trigger and no trigger bets, otherwise you're misleading yourself and others with your conclusions.
Yes I count  the spins after a trigger because I am playing those spins.
If you play from the beginning and you came across  the first negative streak of 7, here is where you stand..You lose  1+2+4+8+16+32+64 or 127 units lost. With $10 minimum, that's $1270 lost.
If that streak of 7 becomes 10 then you are out another 128+256+512 units (896 ) or $8960 added to the $1270. Total $10,230 loss. You will need 1023 hits to recover, and hopefully you don't run into  another streak of 10 along the way .
 If I bet after the streak of 7 (trigger),  I only lose 1+2+4 = 7 units or $70. And if I hit the next spin I get $10 profit.  It may seem like not much for the time spent, but don't forget I have 5-10 roulettes around me, and those things appear fast.
Your simulation has a silent clause.
That money is unlimited and that it can withstand every possible drawdown in the quest to finish the simulation.
But we know that's impossible unless you are Bill Gates.
I don't know what you are trying to prove, when it is clear that the financial picture in the early stages doesn't represent reality. Money matters. It's not pure numbers you are working with.  They come with a price tag.
All you doing is beating  around the bush.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2018, 10:53:41 PM by palestis »
 

Mike

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #213 on: February 07, 2018, 01:37:57 PM »
This is what I mean:

R
B
B
B
B
B -- trigger (5 B in a row). Now start counting.
B 1
B 2
R 3 -- win. record 3 (the spin on which the win arrived). Rinse and repeat.

Do exactly the same for the no trigger bet, and you will end up with two sequences of numbers, one for each kind of bet, trigger and no trigger -

1,1,3,2,1,4,2,7....

Now you can calculate the AVERAGE of these two sets of numbers. You could also calculate the standard deviation/variance with a spreadsheet.

I hope you realise that if the numbers you calculated are not "significantly" different, it means the trigger has no effect.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2018, 01:39:29 PM by Mike »
 

palestis

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #214 on: February 07, 2018, 04:04:04 PM »
I am not interested in counting.
I am only interested in $$$$ money.
In your example R B B B B B B1 B2    R3  I only see one thing which you play down.
You ignore the money factor. 
From the first B to B2 there are 7 lost bets. With doubling 127 units lost.   
Or 1270 € lost up to this point. (if you play with 10 € or $10). A lot more with higher chips.
To win the R3 you have to bet 254 units or $2540.
I doubt if a typical player will go all the way to that step.
 Therefore he will abandon before he reaches that step and he will never enjoy the proceeds of R3.
 And the money lost will remain lost.
Where after 5B,  I only risk 4 units or $40 to win $10. You risked $2540 to win $10 by playing all spins. The single wins in between are no match when you run into this sequence which will force you to abandon the game.
Don't you see the difference?
In the distant future maybe it won't make a difference with trigger or not trigger,
but in real life you will never be able to get to that counting point because you will be out of the game a lot sooner. Due to monetary losses.
That's what you purposely avoid to understand.
Counting without risk for theoretical purposes, is totally different from the same counting if money comes into play.


 

MrPerfect.

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #215 on: February 07, 2018, 04:13:16 PM »
Palestice,  it doesn't matter wich color/ color sequence was before. If you wanna achieve same result as with your waiting,  just play less. Go there less times...stay less time. No need to wait anything. Long term result will be very next to expectation anyway. 
 

palestis

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #216 on: February 07, 2018, 04:51:42 PM »
As it is clear from my previous post, that you may never reach long term results in real roulette life. .
Money will cut that life short. So you will never see long term results.
The only way you will see the  long term results is you use numbers only and ignore the money factor.
I don't go to the casino to perform statistical analysis. I only go for the money.

 
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Mike

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #217 on: February 07, 2018, 08:14:36 PM »
I hope you realise that if the numbers you calculated are not "significantly" different, it means the trigger has no effect.

I'll take your last post as a "no", then.  ::)

palestis,

If your trigger had any merit, it would make a difference to your bottom line flat betting. Forget the progression for the moment, it's just a distraction. Because you haven't actually done the proper test, you're simply kidding yourself, and everyone else who also hasn't done the test.
 

palestis

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #218 on: February 07, 2018, 10:21:58 PM »
Mike
You have a peculiar way of avoiding the truth by postponing today's reality for some distant future day, by transforming real money into peanuts.

In the picture it is yesterdays results from Wiesbaden.
 You tell me what would've happened if you chose to play red by doubling the bet after each loss to black.
Translate into money the circled situations 1,2 and 3.
That's all I'm asking.
As far as flat bets, a trigger goes hand in hand with a progression. They are designed to work together. Now if you were betting red flat all the way,  probably you would've come out even (because the tsunami of blacks was replaced with the tsunami of reds).
PS:
By the way since I have the picture handy.
Looking at the left half of the picture and looking at the results of the right half what do you see?
And I thought previous spins have no influence on future spins).
 
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Real

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #219 on: February 07, 2018, 10:43:30 PM »
Mike,

Above is the problem plaguing virtually every system player.  They look at the past spins and they blind themselves with the data...all because they don't understand how to correctly interpret it.  I wonder how many people on this forum can actually see the flaw in how he has interpreted the data?

« Last Edit: February 07, 2018, 10:50:33 PM by Real »
 

palestis

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #220 on: February 07, 2018, 10:50:27 PM »
Yea but nobody tried to translate that picture into money. I didn't make it up . It was simply from yesterday's results.
 

Real

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #221 on: February 07, 2018, 10:50:59 PM »
Palestis,

Can you see the flaw in how you're looking at and interpreting the data? 

(Don't fret, most people on the forum can't.)
« Last Edit: February 07, 2018, 10:57:25 PM by Real »
 

palestis

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #222 on: February 07, 2018, 10:57:11 PM »
show me. I don't see it., but still I expect a financial translation of the picture  from Mike because that's the subject that I have been arguing with him about. If I run into this situation in a casino how do I get out of it?
 
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Real

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #223 on: February 07, 2018, 10:59:33 PM »
Palestis,

It's a very very common flaw in how gambler's look at past spins.