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Author Topic: MY CHALLENGE TO AP  (Read 8820 times)

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Bebediktus

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #15 on: January 21, 2018, 11:31:49 PM »
then loss  :)
 

Real

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2018, 11:33:27 PM »
Oh, my.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #17 on: January 22, 2018, 12:23:51 AM »
So win not more then expectation when something other then zero hits and zero mean loss. And where is "challenge"?
 

scepticus

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #18 on: January 22, 2018, 12:31:27 AM »
 Thanks for the questions Real . Newcomers may also be wondering the same.
As Bebedictus says the numbers represent dozens.
The zero is  not represented but is allowed for Later.

If we try to forecast the results of the next 4 spins of a roulette wheel then to be sure of getting all 4 correct- in the absence of the zero- we would need 81 bets. 3X3x3x3 = 81
In another thread in this forum Mike has kindly listed all of the 81.
This is quite a costly way of betting but by aiming for correctly forecasting 3 correct in these 4
the 81  can be reduced to 36 bets.  To save space these 36 can be reduced to 9 lines of 4 each ensuring that one of the lines contains at least 3 correct by simply calculating Any 3 from 4 for each line.
1-2-3x
1-2-x-4
1-x-3-4
x-2-3-4
The x being the unused spin of the 4.
In a 37 numbered wheel the chance of a zero  winning is the same as any other number- 1 in 37 – so we have 36 windows of opportunity.
I have asked the AP in the forum to tell me of any of the 9 Blocks that do not have one line that has at least 3 correct in it. Before we can proceed they must be confident that this is so.   
« Last Edit: January 22, 2018, 12:33:43 AM by scepticus »
 

scepticus

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #19 on: January 22, 2018, 12:32:52 AM »
Mr Perfect
Read the first post in this thread and you will find the Challenge.
 

Real

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #20 on: January 22, 2018, 01:42:11 AM »
Quote
The zero is  not represented but is allowed for Later.

Why isn't it allowed for now?  How is it "allowed?"
If you can allow for the zeros later can you allow for other numbers later as well?

What if zero or double zero hits four times in a row instead of one of the dozens?
Why would you bet all three dozens at the same time?
 Don't you realize that you can't win betting like that?

Right now it looks more like you're playing a shell game with the words, rather than explaining how your changing the odds.  Can you just demonstrate how your system gets an edge over the casino?

What do you feel your edge is over the casino?
« Last Edit: January 22, 2018, 01:48:46 AM by Real »
 

scepticus

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #21 on: January 22, 2018, 01:48:58 AM »
Because It is a maths construct which is designed for Sets of Three , ANY 4 Sets of Three.
I calculate for the probabilities over 36 spins and then allow for 1 loss which covers he zero and possibly the 2 zeros but we can come to that later.
It is because you guys don't understand that I am taking it one step at a ti me
 

scepticus

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #22 on: January 22, 2018, 01:54:34 AM »
So REal do you accept that in each block one line has at leats 3 correct in it . no matter the 4 results . Excepting the zero of course.
I don't bet  3 dozens at any  one time. It was you that said that virtual bets were useless and so would have me betting th e3 dozens at the same time.
 

scepticus

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #23 on: January 22, 2018, 02:01:33 AM »
Ah. Well Beddy-Bye time in the UK  ,. Nighty  Night and don't let the bugs bite !
 

Real

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #24 on: January 22, 2018, 02:03:17 AM »
Quote
Excepting the zero of course.

Erm...that's a pretty big exception don't you thinK?

Quote
It was you that said that virtual bets were useless and so would have me betting th e3 dozens at the same time.

And why again are you betting on three dozens at the same time? 
And how does virtual betting change the number of pockets on the wheel from one spin to the next?

« Last Edit: January 22, 2018, 02:27:34 AM by Real »
 

Trilobite

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #25 on: January 22, 2018, 02:45:34 AM »

Hello Scepticus,

1321.

If 1321 shows, I don't see any lines in any blocks with 3 from 4.

I can't find x321, 1x21, 13x1, or 132x.

If there is one could you point it out please?

I haven't calculated how many 3 from 4 combinations there are in your nine blocks, but if it's around 150 combinations, and x321, 1x21, 13x1, 132x are in fact omitted, then I would think these omissions will probably equate to something around the house edge?

...or perhaps I've misunderstood?

« Last Edit: January 22, 2018, 03:07:02 AM by Trilobite »
 

Mike

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #26 on: January 22, 2018, 09:24:49 AM »
Trilo,

IF my understanding is correct and I'm reading the blocks correctly, those lines are located here:

x321 : block 7, col 6
1x21 : block 4, col 1
13x1 : block 1, col 3
132x : block 8, col 3
 

Mike

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #27 on: January 22, 2018, 09:29:49 AM »
To save space these 36 can be reduced to 9 lines of 4 each ensuring that one of the lines contains at least 3 correct by simply calculating Any 3 from 4 for each line.
1-2-3x
1-2-x-4
1-x-3-4
x-2-3-4

Why have you only posted 5 lines here? What's confusing is that you're using "x" for a missing spin number in the above (at least, I assume that's what it means), and also using "x" for a missing dozen elsewhere.

But the "x"s in the above don't really make sense if they're supposed to be placeholders or variables. For instance, in the first row 1-2-3-x, if the numbers are supposed to represent the spin numbers (1-4), what else could "x" be but 4?, so it's not a variable.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2018, 09:38:26 AM by Mike »
 

Trilobite

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #28 on: January 22, 2018, 11:36:08 AM »
oh I see, thanks Mike.
I was reading them as rows, "lines" as explained by scep, not as columns.

 :-[
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: MY CHALLENGE TO AP
« Reply #29 on: January 22, 2018, 12:38:23 PM »
Is it not comprehensible only for me? I can gess that 3 are dowsens other 3 are lines ... other 3 are position of first , second , third..  but why should l gess???  Can Scepticus reasonably explain? ?? Or its a challenge to make a sense of his post after all?
   Find something in your mind to justify whatever and make sense of it ignoring zero..  that's how l see this " chalenge".