Author Topic: Triggers in Systems  (Read 7235 times)

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MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #45 on: December 04, 2017, 11:41:32 AM »
Mike, it's about the laws of nature. Think about weather forcasts; with all the technology used to predict the weather it's not always accurate.
Roulette too is bound by natural laws but that does not mean we can not get a generalised idea of what may happen over the next few spins by referencing past spins.

dobbelsteen

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #46 on: December 04, 2017, 12:25:30 PM »
In small samples the roulette has the behavior of a pendulum. From that point of view past history influence the future. On the long run the pendulum come in rest. This is the case when R/B is 1. It is value for all the chances

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palestis

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #47 on: December 04, 2017, 03:54:04 PM »
@ Mike
Whether you play R or B or any EC, one thing is for sure. That you will lose very soon as 4 and  5 same EC's occur very frequently.( If these EC's are the opposite of what you bet on). Now if you don't use doubling progression and only play with the same value chip, you will not lose too much, but eventually you will lose 2.7% if you play all the time. In that case it's not even worth attempting to play that way. It is the type play that falls under the definition of the HE.
It takes time to locate 10 in a row before you start betting.
But when there are several roulettes available in front of you, you have more choices. One will usually have the requirements that you are looking for, or be pretty close to them (like 9 reds).
The question is will it always the 10 black turn into 15+? and the answer is extremely rarely.
A simulation might find that it doesn't make a difference, but for that to happen it has to include millions and millions of spins, which translated into time it will be many years before you run into this situation. Maybe beyond the player's lifetime.  I don't know. At least you can win in this lifetime.
And it doesn't have to always be 10 in a row before you bet,  as this situation is rare.
It can be 5-6 in a row and 3 bets after that on the opposite.
As you look at score results like in Wiesbaden, you rarely see 8 and 9 in a row for the entire day.
That means that the entire day would've been a winning day if you waited for 5-6 in a row and bet 3 times the opposite.
And to speed up the time you can always observe 5 roulettes. It won't be long before one has the 5-6 in a row.

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MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #48 on: December 04, 2017, 05:41:19 PM »
There is one problem with that. .. any EC has same probability of occurring independently of what was before. EC is very broad category.  It has too much degrees of freedom to be limited.   Player may wait even for 20 of these, it doesn't change a thing. It's not a way to overcome HE and anyone with basic understanding of excel can verify it for himself.
People who are unable to throw away school "education" out of their head and reevaluate all what they " know" , they will never be able to beat this game.
You are conditioned externally to think " inside the box"..  as long as you not break " the box" , box will be all you know and all you can do. It's worst chains of slavery ever invented!!! These you can not see or smell. .. it's a prison to the mind and many continue prisioner forever till they die.
Find the truth and truth will liberate you. Or keep rotten as a slave, it's your choice.
PS.. these who dare are blessed, these who do not are cursed.  Stop to be your own jeilor and you will see the world how it really is. There is only one enemy to kill - your own limitations. Love yourself and you will kill yourself, hate yourself and you will kill yourself, become yourself and there will be no limitations to you anymore. You can achieve everything, you can screw up everything..... it's your choice always. Choose your choices wisely.

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MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #49 on: December 04, 2017, 06:29:19 PM »
MrPerfect you've outdone you self in the psychology department... very well stated

Being able to beat the game has just as much freedom to be limited. Beating the game has different meanings to different people. Two examples:
Beating the game could mean winning continously regardless of the HE.
Beating the game could mean evaluating your game play after a period of time and after wins and losses are calculated you record a profit.

I think all of us as players must be humble enough to learn from each other but as long as there are more looser than winners the current rules of roulette will remain intact. If winning is increased through a breakthrough then I'm sure the rules will change. You see, we are playing against two opponents, uneven payout on a win and the casino rules that limit the player like table limits. I wouldn't be surprised if casinos monitor roulette forums to evaluate their rules.

Today's spin results will be viewed as spin history tomorrow and through spin history there are few anomalies that stretch so wide that a cluster bet with a trigger, limitations included, will wipe out a player completely. In fact it can't happen unless a long streak of back to back losses are encountered. But, that's where a stop loss point if executed will save the player from total loss. It's how you condition your mind to play your game.

dobbelsteen

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #50 on: December 04, 2017, 08:41:38 PM »
Every spin on his own is indipendetly, but together and on the long run the result is predictable. Anomalies are corrections on past anomalies

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palestis

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #51 on: December 04, 2017, 10:42:02 PM »
Mr. Perfect
It's not about thinking inside the box. it's about what you see is  real life day after day,  week after week, year after year. Sure math and gambling experts say that every time you bet the probability of EC is 50%.
But how do they explain the fact that after 100, 200, spins etc.  most EC's do not have wide gaps with each other? Y you don't see 80 black and 20 red in 100 spins?
Or 150 odd and 50 even in 200 spins?
Somehow they all seem to get closer and closer with their counterparts as the spins increase.  Not necessarily exactly the same, but definitely not too far apart as the rules of independent events dictate.
The only explanation is that individual random events, must comply with their probability values if taken as a whole. That means every event that seems independent and random individually, it has to answer to a higher authority if collected as a whole.
And its proven every day every time in every roulette table all around the world.
If you showed me a situation of 150 black and 50 red in 200 spins, then I would gladly accept your theory. But I just don't see it,  no matter how hard I search.
You can't prove things with theories. At some point you have to show a real life  example.
It's not that math experts are wrong and we are right.
Math experts have better things to do than dealing with roulette issues.
Do you know of any modern math experts or math PhD students that made their dissertation on roulette? Nobody. They simply don't care about roulette. Someone said long time ago that past spins have nothing to do with new spins and it was passed from generation to generation ever since. General statement but no mention to details. And its details that matter.
MIT students decided to play Black Jack and they defied the odds and the myth that you can't beat the house, and they walked away with \$5 million in one year.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2017, 10:59:43 PM by palestis »

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Reyth

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #52 on: December 04, 2017, 11:28:02 PM »
If DS 10-15 is ahead, ( in my picture example), which  are the other 5 DS's to compare it to?

Sorry I always play with 11 DS as it reveals the functioning of each street within the selection and produces varied and unique (through geographically related) results.

Ya, sorry, I felt a bit personally invested when you mentioned "even distribution" within 250 spins.

Palestis,

I gather from this post that you're saying we are better off waiting for the 10 blacks, rather than "betting from the beginning".  I'm afraid this isn't the case. On average, you will make the same number of bets before losing 5 in row whether you wait for 10 or not. If you don't believe me ask Reyth to do a simulation. The only difference is that it costs you more in terms of time at the table when waiting for the 10 blacks.

I already know that over millions of spins the trigger will even out but that is not my experience on the felt.  If we play your suggested way, it is sure and quick suicide.

At least with triggers we are able to control the betting environment based on the immediate probabilities, avoiding losses that are more likely and limiting our immediate risk exposure.

I don't care about the simulation.  I care about keeping my bankroll intact and taking advantage of the rare sequences that normally would have caused me to lose, using your suggested method.

^^^^^ This stuff needs to be bottled and sold!!!
« Last Edit: December 04, 2017, 11:45:58 PM by Reyth »

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Mike

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #53 on: December 05, 2017, 08:21:17 AM »
Roulette too is bound by natural laws but that does not mean we can not get a generalised idea of what may happen over the next few spins by referencing past spins.

Micky,

You haven't really addressed the issue here. Roulette is subject to the laws of physics of course, but just how do previous spins influence future spins when the probability doesn't change between one spin  (or series of spins) and the next spin (or series of spins)?

At least in this game you can test your theories and don't have to rely on others' opinions. You can run simulations to test them or perform a statistical test such as the Chi-square test for independence (google it). There is no need for endless arguments.

Mike

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #54 on: December 05, 2017, 08:37:49 AM »
@ Mike
Whether you play R or B or any EC, one thing is for sure. That you will lose very soon as 4 and  5 same EC's occur very frequently.

And you will lose 4 or 5 bets just as frequently after waiting for 10 "virtual" losses. The waiting time is irrelevant. It doesn't matter whether you can find these virtual losses relatively quickly by moving to different tables or observing all the ECs. Do the simulations and find out the truth for yourself.

Quote
Someone said long time ago that past spins have nothing to do with new spins and it was passed from generation to generation ever since. General statement but no mention to details. And its details that matter.

This is not the definition of statistical independence but an absurd caricature of it. Palestis, if you're going to question the math, at least use the true definitions before criticizing them.

Quote
If you showed me a situation of 150 black and 50 red in 200 spins, then I would gladly accept your theory. But I just don't see it,  no matter how hard I search.

This is completely irrelevant to independence. What you're looking for doesn't lead to the conclusion you think it does. The way to go about determining independence empirically is not to search for long runs of missing outcomes, but to first locate the "virtual" loss, and then see how many more losses occur after it. For example if you want to find out whether waiting for 10 blacks results in fewer losses than when "betting immediately", locate the 10 blacks, then count on from there until you see the first red. You will find that on average the first red comes at the same number of spins later as when you're betting without waiting for the virtual losses, and this proves that the waiting was worthless.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 08:54:29 AM by Mike »

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Mike

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #55 on: December 05, 2017, 09:10:57 AM »
In small samples the roulette has the behavior of a pendulum. From that point of view past history influence the future. On the long run the pendulum come in rest. This is the case when R/B is 1. It is value for all the chances

dobblesteen,

That may be true, but this is worthless knowledge if you don't know WHEN the pendulum will swing back. Can you give us an example of how you know this by using past history?

MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #56 on: December 05, 2017, 09:17:43 AM »
It happens that even basic probability does change from one spin to other. Other spin can simply belong to another category of spins that produce different ball jump, different bias pattern, or are more likely to throw ball from roulette completely to the floor.
Simple example : dealer change or ball change. Do you see, "simple" probability,  as you call it, does not govern this game and is very weak math model used as refference, not as an ultimate solution to explain the game.
Could you demonstrate, please,  how would you use chi- square to see independence of one spin from other? It's something l can not even remotely imagine, so l would love to learn.

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dobbelsteen

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #57 on: December 05, 2017, 09:53:20 AM »
Before I start my betting ,I read the  stats of the last 50 spins. On average the pendulum swing back in 5 spins after a difference of 12 . If the stats show 32 R  and 17 B and 1 zero after 4 consecutive R I predict a profit.
In this case the risk of a Martingale is very low

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palestis

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #58 on: December 05, 2017, 09:56:46 AM »
Mike you are asking for an example from Dobble.
Can you provide an example ( as it has been asked many times), that proves your claim? Or the math experts claim? You see we don't care about what the static probability is. Because it's irrelevant.
What matters is the probability of a series of bets, because that's the environment a player operates in.
The fact that all the roulette numbers remain the same, the probability of an EC will always be 50%. I assume that if that's the case, somewhere there must be a situation where in 100 spins there will be 80-90 Black and 20-10 red. That's not too much to ask. But such thing is nowhere to be found. Y?
The answer is simple. A 50% chance cannot go in one direction only. At least not for too long.
It has to favor both sides equally.  Individual events will always seek their rightful balance. The more random the better.
In a way a system player tries to predict a future "whole" now. Because  the whole will always balance all anomalies
Not in its entirety, but at least partially enough to produce a profit. The goal is profit, not to defy probability.

« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 09:59:22 AM by palestis »

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MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #59 on: December 05, 2017, 10:02:16 AM »