### Author Topic: Prediction vs Progressions  (Read 4415 times)

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#### MrPerfect.

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##### Prediction vs Progressions
« on: April 10, 2017, 12:46:17 PM »
To adjust bet need to know real probability of hit. This one achieved thru understanding of underlying processes. ..  what depends on what???, study of the wheel and dealers is undespencible.
If you are out in your estimation of edge, you are out totaly. ..   this is a main problem here....
To be able to do it right, need model of wheel plus understanding how dealer affects it....      .......       ............. need to be precise.

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#### kav

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2017, 06:03:43 PM »
Mr Perfect you overestimate probability and underestimate variance.
Red and Black both have 50% yet one will hit and the other will miss. And this can happen for the same color again and again.
If you want to discuss this further, we better open a new topic as to keep the discussion here focused on dozens.

#### Bayes

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2017, 10:16:29 AM »
@ Mr P, don't take this as criticism, because I really do appreciate your experience and insights into advantage play, but this thread is about a system. If you're going to post on every system thread what amounts to "this won't work because it's not AP", then it's going to get tiresome quickly. Like it or not, people are going to continue to research and play systems.

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2017, 11:05:55 AM »
Bayes,  lm sorry to desapoint you, but there is no system to what you do here on this tread. It just a progression. And progressions do progress ,you know. What gonna be progressed in this particular case you already know, l do not need to tell you about it.
I know system player who makes money 15 years already. He got a system! And he is not AP. He just gess. His gessing is aplicable to almost any situation. I even can tell you how he developed his ability, if you ask nicely.
In your tests look what happen if you choose other dousen instead. Infact make simulations for all 3 of them . Probably then you will understand that is nessesary to make choices while you play instead of sticking to the same one using same generic progression.
Often l see situations where even a dousen gonna have an edge, but it wouldn't help to system player, if he doesn't know wich dousen to choose .

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#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2017, 11:37:18 AM »
Guys ( Kav, Reyth), could you please move some other posts or duplicate them so this tread has a meaning as well. I belive it's more relevant to the reality then original tread... it can be very interesting  for new players if composed properly.
At least the original posts that l reply ... it would do the trick. Sorry to be such a hussle sometimes... with knolidge come responsibility to share it, sometimes l do not do it best way posible, lm still learning. ..

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#### scepticus

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2017, 12:08:06 PM »

Mr. Perfect
I am " asking nicely " .
thanks

#### Bayes

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2017, 12:21:16 PM »
Probably then you will understand that is nessesary to make choices while you play instead of sticking to the same one using same generic progression.

Of course. And nowhere did I suggest on that thread that the progression should be rigidly mechanical, that's why I wanted to create one which allows you to make choices as the game progresses, and has adjustable parameters. And the thread is not just about a progression, it's about a bet selection too.

Quote
I know system player who makes money 15 years already. He got a system! And he is not AP. He just gess. His gessing is aplicable to almost any situation. I even can tell you how he developed his ability, if you ask nicely.

Sounds like me! Although I haven't been making money that long. I too use a kind of "educated" guessing, and it's not AP. I suppose what I have in common with AP's is that I don't believe any generic system can work; each new session always demands a high degree of concentration and analysis. But that prospect isn't appealing to the majority of gamblers because they're looking for "easy" money, or at least, 100% certainty without thinking or effort -- La La land.

And I wouldn't want to play any other way, even if such a system was possible. I would be bored to tears.

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#### Bayes

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2017, 12:31:23 PM »
Guys ( Kav, Reyth), could you please move some other posts or duplicate them so this tread has a meaning as well.

Agreed. Kav, do you have to move posts around without even giving a warning? You have a tendency to just pluck posts out of threads just to keep the original thread somehow pristine, even though the posts removed lose their meaning without the context. And it's annoying. You're going to piss off members and as a result they may not bother to post at all.

I have to say, you can be a bit of a control freak at times.

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2017, 12:36:15 PM »
WOW  !

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2017, 01:57:30 PM »

Mr. Perfect
I am " asking nicely " .
thanks
Scepticus, there was an ancient technique to develop intuition ... it was practiced in the middle east by these of " royal" families who wanted to really rool or by " dervishes" .. these who seek creator.
It consisted of kind of mechanical device that allowed one seed ( these things that plants grow from) to pass thru the tiny hole in its low part. Device was operated by human via manipulating kind of " arm" wich permited to the seed to fall in one of 2 baskets underneath it, depending on if this arm was moved left or right. Seeds were colored differently.
Folks use to practice with this device till the point when seeds of each basket were colored same .... practicioner was permitted to pass this test only if no more then 3 seeds of different color was in the basket.
You can reserch Norbekov on Google,  he developed similar device that gives small electric shocks every time you choose wrong. This fellow has a millionare club... like Kurosaki... he literally creates millioners with his training. Unfortunately most of pages will be in Russian. .. use Google translator.

#### Bayes

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2017, 03:07:47 PM »
Or try this:

http://www.magicintuition.com/magic-roulette-intuition.html

But maybe getting an electric shock helps to focus your attention.

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2017, 03:15:49 PM »
Intuition is ability to put all resorces of your brain on. It's triggered by physiological process.  Used to used to protect egainst wild anImals ets... in modern time not developed due to "boxed" life that we have.
Clicking on software wouldn't work.

#### Bayes

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2017, 03:16:33 PM »

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #13 on: April 11, 2017, 04:07:38 PM »

WOW  !

Why WOW??

I thought your calling kav a bit of a control freak was ( how shall I put it ? ) light years away from your usual measured post and I thought " well ! that's telling   him  ! ".
It could have been put a bit more diplomatically .
Perhaps my reaction   was " intuitive " ?

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#### scepticus

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##### Re: Prediction vs Progressions
« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2017, 04:15:24 PM »

Mr. Perfect
The ancient practice you speak of  is what we Westerners mean  when we say " Practice makes Perfect" .
Intuition ? I think intuition is  instinctive and cannot be "trained" with or without electric shocks. What you call the training of intuition is what I call " concentrating the mind ".

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