Author Topic: Merge Street  (Read 12539 times)

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Reyth

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Merge Street
« on: April 09, 2017, 05:15:45 AM »

The coverage of a quad and greater earning power than a split

2(-2) 2(-4) 2(-6) 2(-8)
4(-12) 4(-16) 4(-20) 4(-24)
6(-30) 6(-36) 6(-42) 6(-48)
8(-56) 8(-64) 8(-72) 8(-80)
10(-90) 10(-100) 10(-110) 10(-120)
12(-132) 12(-144) 12(-156) 12(-168)
14(-182) 14(-196) 14(-210) 14(-224)
16(-240) 16(-256) 16(-272) 16(-288)
18(-306) 18(-324) 18(-342) 18(-360)
20(-380) 20(-400) 20(-420) 20(-440)
22(-462) 22 (-484) 99.18%

1) Forward one step on a miss
2) Back nine steps on a win
3) Back to first step on all time high
4) End session at +250 profit OR after last bet in progression
5) Sessions can also be ended early (+ or -) due to "statistical preference"

Recovery

Unit..Stop..Balance
...1.......500.......500
...2.......1000.....1500
...3.......1500.....3000
...4.......2000.....5000
...5.......2500.....7500

The unit size can be increased for each bet based on available balance.

Hit Expectation

1=spin 10
2=spin 19
3=spin 28
4=spin 37

Session From Heck
Session From Heck II

+278 147 spins 0/5 1/3 2/4 3/5
+70 70 spins 0/2 1/2 2/3 3/1 8/8 in the progression, down from +134
-422 65 spins 0/0 1/1 2/1 3/3 went up +44 early successive hits,plunged straight down

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance: -74

+152 27 spins 0/1 1/1 2/1 3/0 -32 then 0 & 1 hit successively
+96 10 spins 0/1 1/0 2/1/ 3/0 0 & 1 hit successively
-24 66 spins 0/2 1/1 2/1 3/3 down to -464, ended on 2nd 0 hit
+272 36 spins 0/4 1/0 2/0 3/1 0 hit successively & eclipsed debt to end session

Level 1.  Balance: +422

+94 43 spins 0/0 1/2 2/3 3/1 2 hit successively, ended after 0 became sleeper
+80 29 spins 0/1 1/0 2/2 3/0 ended on 0 hit after 2 was repeater
-342 48 spins 0/0 1/0 2/1 3/0 2 hit @ -62 and plunged downward

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance: +254

+144 19 spins 0/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 ended when complete distribution in recovery
-64 59 spins 0/2 1/2 2/0 3/0 ended on 2nd 0 hit when 2 is deep sleeper in recovery
+36 47 spins 0/1 1/2 2/0 3/1 ended at all time high when 2 became sleeper
+101 31 spins 0/0 1/3 2/2 3/2 favorable profit is better than 6 spins left for the 0 to hit

Writing this debt off.  Level 1.  Balance: +471

+106 36 spins 0/1 1/0 2/3 3/0 ended at 3rd 2 hit when 1 & 3 became sleepers
-40 41 spins 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/1 ended at late 2 hit with 0 due within 29 spins & 1 sleeping

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance: +537

+64 14 spins 0/0 1/0 2/1 3/0 scandalous scalping

Level 1.  Balance: +601

-88 128 spins 0/1 1/7 2/3 3/4 comments below

Coup Balance History

52 -46 -58 -38 -76 -68 -236 -196 -182 -146 -142 -120 -88

This session was very interesting where 2 hit very early for +52 profit while 1 & 3 carried the session (-68).  Eventually 2 became a sleeper which made 0 a deep sleeper (-236) but 1 & 3 still came in at least as expected (-142).  2 then woke up (-120) and I decided to continue because I thought that the chances of 2 being hot are now augmented and 0 is extremely due.  0 finally hit and with that statistical picture, I decided to call it a day.  A case can be made for continuing because now BOTH 0 & 2 are probabaly more likely to be hot BUT the overriding principle is that we are looking for short sessions and long sessions are to be ended as soon as is "convenient", rather than risk a forced stop out.

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance: +513

-988 86 spins 0/0 1/4 2/0 3/1 1 could not carry alone, 3 became sleeper, 0 & 2 deep sleep

Level 3 Recovery.  Balance: -475

+192 32 spins 0/1 1/2 2/1 3/1 full distribution in recovery
+264 36 spins 0/0 1/1 2/3 3/2 favorable profit with 0 becoming sleeper

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance: -19

+0 33 spins 0/1 1/1 2/0 3/1 decided not to risk 0 being a sleeper 4 spins away
+148 16 spins 0/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 full distribution in recovery
+36 33 spins 0/0 1/2 2/1 3/2 over performing support & 0 sleeping 4 spins away
+132 17 spins 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/0 favorable early profit outweighed quite probable support
+148 16 spins 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/0 favorable early profit outweighed quite probable support

Level 1.  Writing this debt off.  Balance: +445

-484 42 spins 0/0 1/0 2/0 3/0 no hits

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance:  -39

+160 40 spins 0/1 1/1 2/3 3/1 betting error missed 1st 2, I bet extra spins
+224 25 spins 0/3 1/0 2/1 3/1 0 hit successively for favorable early profit on the 2 hit

Level 1.  Writing this debt off.  Balance: +345

+60 34 spins 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/3 convenient end on 2 hit with 1 about to be a sleeper
+44 31 spins 0/0 1/1 2/1 3/2 convenient end on 2 hit with 0 about to be a sleeper
+78 32 spins 0/2 1/1 2/1 3/0 end on 1 hit with 3 about to be a sleeper
+74 35 spins 0/0 1/0 2/3 3/1 end on 3rd 2 hit with 0 & 1 about to be sleepers
-118 57 spins 0/2 1/0 2/0 3/2 end 2nd 0 hit, no need to risk @ 7/7 on even probable support

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance: +483

+176 21[4] spins 0/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 Comments below

4 Probabala

Expectation for all 4 numbers is 9.25 spins.  It is very interesting to weigh this expectation vs. 37 (or 72, 109, etc.) spins to see if we are EXPECTED to gain a hit before the number is officially a sleeper/deep sleeper.

I will start to track this figure with the spins figure; expressed as spins [total hits]; multiply total hits by 9.25 and subtract spins, to see how we did vs. expectation (+= less than expected, -=greater than expected).

This last session was a complete distribution that also eclipsed profit on the last hit.  There is no need to risk doubled chips any longer when the debt is fully recovered.  What was interesting is that expectation "predicted" that we should still get a 4th hit before the 37th spin.

Why continue a session uphill, AGAINST expectation?

Level 1.  Balance: +659

+60 25[4] spins 0/0 1/1 2/2 3/1 2 substituted for the 0, supplying favorable profit
+12 27[4] spins 0/0 1/1 2/1 3/2 no need to risk uphill
-50 35[2] spins 0/0 1/0 2/1 3/1 0 & 1 soon to sleep

Level 2  Recovery. Balance: +681

-368 66[4] spins 0/1 1/1 2/0 3/2 voluntary stop due to probable deep sleep of 0

Level 3 Recovery. Balance: +313

+192 17[2] spins 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/0 no need to risk with chips raised

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance: +505

+112 32[3] spins 0/1 1/1 2/1 3/0 no need to risk with chips raised
+76 5[1] spins 0/0 1/0 2/1 3/0 scandalous scalping

Level 1.  Writing this debt off.  Balance: +693

+63 19[3] spins 0/2 1/0 2/1 3/0 risked from 11[2], ended on 2nd 0 hit
+46 33[2] spins 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/0 no need to continue risking support sleeping
+22 11[3] 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/1 betting error, missed 2 hit; ended on 0 hit
+92 20[3] 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/1 no need to risk the favorable profit
-6 27[2] 0/2 1/0 2/0 3/0 no need to risk, ended on 2nd 0 hit
-30 57[4] 0/2 1/0 2/0 3/2 small debt is better than larger loss due to 2 deep sleep

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance: +880

+72 10[1] 0/1 1/0 2/0 3/0 scandalous scalping

Level 1.  Balance: +952

+50 18[3] 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/1 favorable profit
+16 28[4] 0/0 1/2 2/1 3/1 better to end with profit than risk probable 0 sleeping
+70 11[3] 0/2 1/0 2/1 3/0 no need to risk favorable profit
+50 27[4] 0/1 1/2 2/0 3/1 convenient end on 0 hit
-498 61[3] 0/0 1/3 2/0 3/0 bizarre

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance:  +640

+96 23[2] 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/0 small but favorable profit
+68 29[4] 0/1 1/2 2/0 3/1 hit not expected before 37 spins
+20 31[4] 0/0 1/3 2/0 3/1 strong support, 0 & 2 sleep probable
+16 38[3] 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/1 risked from 4/4 -144 2/35 and ended on 0 hit
+36 29[4] 0/1 1/1 2/0 3/2 2 probable sleeper
-938 77[4] 0/2 1/1 2/1 3/1 betting error at +38 accidentally spun instead of end

Level 3 Recovery.  Balance: -62

+156 16[4] 0/1 1/1 2/1 3/1
+222 51[4] 0/1 1/0 2/2 3/1 horrific downswing -222 but bailed me out with 3 main hits
+138 24[3] 0/1 1/1 2/1 3/0 favorable profit
+72 42[3] 0/0 1/1 2/2 3/0 horrific downswing 8/8 with no hit; -288, 3 quick hits won
+210 11[2] 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/0 scandalous scalping

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance:  +736

+104 14[2] 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/0 favorable profit
+24 28[2] 0/1 1/0 2/0 3/1 7/7 downswing with no hit, 2 quick hits restored profit
+144 20[4] 0/1 1/1 2/2 3/0 no need to risk favorable profit
+112 17[4] 0/1 1/2 2/0 3/1 favorable profit

Level 1.  Writing debt off.  Balance: +1120

-68 37[2] 0/0 1/1 2/1 3/0 ended at 2 hit

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance: +1052

+84 9[1] 0/0 1/0 2/1 3/0 scandalous scalping

Level 1.  Balance: +1136

+84 30[4] 0/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 complete distribution
-110 45[4] 0/1 1/1 2/0 3/2 ended at 1 hit with 2 being sleeper

Level 2 Recovery.  Balance: +1110

+164 14[3] 0/3 1/0 2/0 3/0 0 hit successively to eclipse debt

Level 1.  Balance:  +1274

+36 6[2] 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/0 no need to risk favorable profit
+56 14[2] 0/1 1/0 2/1 3/0 no need to risk favorable profit
+40 31[3] 0/0 1/1 2/1 3/1 0 likely a sleeper
« Last Edit: August 21, 2017, 05:11:59 AM by Reyth »

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2017, 01:50:32 PM »

the system i use is very similar to that. a cluster with a main number. you use the smaller pay-off to buy time until the main number, in your case the 2 and 0 get a hit.
I will post a method of play including this type of betting.
you can create a method that can take your "single number" into a very large number amount of spins that you would not be able to do without the clustering effect.
great way to play with low risk and "time buying power".
best,

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jekhb76

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2017, 03:13:20 PM »

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Reyth

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2017, 06:17:23 PM »
Right Rinad!  I think the ratio here of payout:cost is pretty unique and powerful for a 2 chip system.

Notice the difference between payout:cost in the following previously tried configurations:

« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 06:27:12 PM by Reyth »

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2017, 09:09:52 PM »

the pay off IS very generous. this type of system is what takes you to nice profit.

it can be played in so many ways. what you want to compute is the following;
when ever you hit your main number it has to recoup all your debt, dont have to do nothing more.
when your main number hits more frequently then the odds, there is your profit.

3 numbers play this way. 2/1/2    2 chips on split 13/14.  1 chip on '14  . 2 chips on split 14/15

progression;

1 to 20 spins=   2/1/2    direct  payout =103 \$    splits payout  31  \$     (5\$)  total bet.
21 to 27 '"  =   2/2/2                          =138 \$                        30 \$       (6\$)  " bet
27 to 31  =    3/2/3                             =172 \$                        46 \$       [8]  "  bet
31 to  35  =   3/3/3                             = 207 \$                        45 \$      (9) "  bet

I can go on with the full progression if anyone needs it. total cost can be either \$ 350  for a 2 to 1 ratio  or \$ 700  for a 3 to 1 ratio.    the later wins 80 % of the time but it takes 3 winning sessions of 200 \$ each to make up for one loss.  you win much more often but takes 700\$ to play at a 5\$ table.    2\$/1\$/2\$..... it is a long term winner.

« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 09:34:30 PM by Reyth »

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Reyth

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2017, 09:39:27 PM »
Sure!  I would love to see the full progression as at 35 spins the chances of gaining a single hit are 94.81%.

If possible, I would want to have a progression extending to at least 55 spins which is 99.0% and then I would raise my unit size for recovery.

Interesting that you play at the same unit size for recovery.  Do you switch tables or have any criteria before beginning to play?

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2017, 10:15:20 PM »

the progression goes to 60 spins. you do move up slowly on your cluster as you dont get a hit on the splits. when you get a hit on the split, you are moving backward in the progression, giving you more spins to play. going back and forth because of the split hits, you can play 80 to 100 spins without hitting your main number and that is the icing on the cake. so if you hit your main number at spin 30 or spin 60 it does not matter. 7% of the time you will lose your bankroll, that is you hit nothing at all.
I strongly suggest to change cluster if your main number does not hit within 38 spins.
that is what I like to do, the way I play.
that method can be played as well with quads. even a DS play, but it just does not paid as much.
the 2/1/2  cluster can also be a 4/1  .  4 units on a street ,adding 1 unit to the main number within that same street.
with a bankroll of 10 k, one could play at the 5\$ level, the 7\$,8\$,10\$,15,25\$.   the chance of losing such a big bank is the same of you getting hit by a comet. lol.

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2017, 11:00:38 PM »

the 3 number cluster method.

progression.  bankroll =700\$   win target =200\$

spins        bets         payout on main number      spins number to go back upon split hit.        split pay.

1/21       2/1/2              103 \$                                      (go back 5 spins)                              31 \$
21/27      2/2/2             138 \$                                           22                                                30\$
27/31      3/2/3              172\$                                            25                                               46\$
31/35       3/3/3            207\$                                              28                                             45\$
35/38       4/3/4             241\$                                              32                                             61\$
38/41       4/4/4              276\$                                           37                                               60\$
41/44       5/4/5               310\$                                            38                                             76\$
44/46        5/5/5             345\$                                             41                                             75\$
46/48        6/5/6                       379\$                                44                                             76\$
48/50        6/6/6                  414\$                                       45                                            90\$
/52            7/6/7                   448\$                                         46                                         106
/54              7/7/7                  483 \$                                      48                                            105
/55              8/7/8                  517\$                                        49                                         121
/57              8/8/8                  552\$                                        51                                        120
/58              9/8/9                   586 \$                                        52                                       136
/59             9/9/9                    621\$                                         54                                       135
/60             10/9/10                 655\$                                         55                                       151
/61                10/10/10            690 \$                                         56                                     150\$

there it is. I gave you the progr. from the card I am using.
once you hit a split, you can see where in your spin count you go back to. (approx.)

donr be too aggressive playing it. the goal is to buy spins. as many as you can before you hit your full cluster with the main number.
how much to bet at all time is the job. to recoup your losses is what the card help you to do.
you can make your own any way you please so you know at all time what bet it takes to make how much money you need.

let me know if I can clarifiy things.
best,

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2017, 11:05:19 PM »

OUAH. SOMEHOW AFTER I POSTED THE METHOD IT DID NOT ALIGNE ITSELF THE WAY i WROTE IT.
SORRY ABOUT THE MESS.

THE SPLIT PAYOFF WENT RIGHT UNDER THE "SPIN" AMOUNT.  SO READ IT THAT WAY.
UNLESS YOU CAN REWRITE IT THE WAY IT WAS SUPPOSE TO SHOW.

NOT TOO SAVVY ON THE COMP.   SORRY.

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2017, 11:25:10 PM »

THIS MAY HELP.

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scepticus

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2017, 12:06:11 AM »
A quad has better earning power than a split, Reyth ?  How so ?

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Reyth

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2017, 01:12:32 AM »
Well, first off it is not a quad but "the coverage of a quad", which means that 4 numbers are covered by the selection.

It also has "a better payout than a split" because the selection is 2 streets merged together (hence the name Merge Street) and where they merge (0,2), the payout is 22 units vs. only 17 for a split.

Granted the cost is doubled here but the second chip is working OVERTIME in providing the 4th number and doubling the payout AND the extra cost is worth it since one can increase the bankroll to accomodate it.

Nowhere else on the felt can this unique configuration of payout:cost be found.

@Rinad: Awesome man!  61 spins on a street is 99.43% which I think is truly wonderful.  I was hoping you could help me with a couple of basic questions that I am pretty sure I should already know the answer to, but:

1) What is the total outlay required to handle the full 61 spins?
2) What do you do when your main number does not come in after 61 spins?
« Last Edit: April 10, 2017, 04:51:31 PM by Reyth »

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2017, 02:14:11 AM »

so yes Reyth.  the requirement is 700 \$ BR  to play the 5 \$ base bet, (split cost included).

what is important is to realise that we will play a lot more then 61 spins.
the card that I show has numbers before the splits payouts.
those numbers show you where you must go in your bets everytime you hit a split.
example; said you are playing 5/4/5 at spin 44 on the card.
you hit a split  which pays you 76\$.
just before the 76 \$ on the card you see number .38 (spin 38), so you start the progression at spin 38 and bet 4/3/4. and so on and so on.
you this method takes its sweet time because you go back and forth a lot ,but you are buying spins. it is all about waiting to hit the "mother load",the main number which will always get you back to spin number 1. THE BEGINNING.

A SESSION AT A REAL TABLE CAN TAKE AROUND 3 HOURS.
once I hit my main number I like to stay on it if I went over 38 spins without a hit. but I do switch when my number does not come within a cycle.  I always stay with a winning number when it hit.
a small voice always tells me' dont curse the number that feeds you son".
hope that helps.

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Reyth

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2017, 03:38:38 AM »
Very interesting!  Before you revealed this about your system, I had been planning to make a table of the exact same thing!  When one of the "support numbers" hits, it is an unchangeable and precise move backwards in the progression and a chart where we can look it up is easier than trying to mentally calculate it.

Your approach is very interesting but sometimes it fails right?  So on recovery you just re-bet the same progression until you make back the money?

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2017, 04:25:13 AM »

I made the chart like you wanted to do so you dont have to calculate too much.
but in real play I can quickly see how much i need and found out what my next cluster bet should be.
you probably can create one or a better one for quads plays.
you can take a progression as far as you are willing to go. but you must have a "stop loss".
unless you can create a HG type prog. that would take a bigger bankroll like 5/10 k but would cover a huge amount of spins.
I know you have done a lot of work in regard to "single bet systems", and Turbo genius as well.
but maybe, just maybe the missing piece to the puzzle is to add on splits/clustering type bets to help that single number reach its promise land.  it keep the main bet lower and buys you time.
time is what it is all about.
the splits are only there to buy spins.
the hit of the main number should always paid your recovery, nothing more in order to keep the betting as low as possible.
the main number hitting more frequently then the odds is enough to make you a nice profit.
and quitting a session after hitting your main number and your profit goal creates more wins in the long run.
you can be in recovery for a long time during dry spells. but a player can take a brake anytime, and take the session exactly where he left it. dont really matter. numbers are numbers but I prefer to play with live ones. and stay loyal to the ones that helps me.

best,