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Author Topic: Skips and series are more balanced?  (Read 5425 times)

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kav

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Re: Skips and series are more balanced?
« Reply #60 on: April 09, 2017, 02:02:29 PM »
In my opinion the substance of this topic can be summarized like this:

Do we believe that, a specific bet after a specific event (trigger) has a better hit rate than if we bet continuously?

For example my trigger is Red. Each time Red hits I bet on Red for the next spin. When Black hits I do not bet the next spin.

Do we believe that RB...RB...RB...RB...RB...RB were I lose 6 bets, is less frequent than BBBBBB ?

This is the heart of the problem. Whether you apply it to different bets with different triggers, the logic is the same. My own opinion is that probably yes, the trigger-bet-stop method may be just a tiny bit more safe than the continuous betting method.

A very common misunderstanding here is that even if it offered no advantage, the trigger-bet-stop method has less losses just because you bet less often. What we are searching here is the loss rate/win rate, not the absolute number of losses or wins.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 02:08:57 PM by kav »
 
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Rinad

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Re: Skips and series are more balanced?
« Reply #61 on: April 09, 2017, 02:37:43 PM »
Kav,

according to research I did many years ago, the win rate is increased a tiny bet like you said.
and because you increase the number of spins between hits is the reason why the win rate is greater.
it is not a whole lot more but in my opinion it is better to play that way.
Rinad.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 02:39:46 PM by kav »
 
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Scarface

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Re: Skips and series are more balanced?
« Reply #62 on: March 10, 2018, 08:33:11 PM »
Do we believe that RB...RB...RB...RB...RB...RB were I lose 6 bets, is less frequent than BBBBBB ?

After studying this for a little while, I'm not 100% positive it is less frequent.  My intuition tells me it should be!  This is something I may look into more.

One thing I did find very interesting is that betting whatever happens last seems to be very stable, without the long string of losses.

Say that Red just appeared 3 times, then black
RRRB
Now, the next time a red shows up, I'll wager that it will be followed by another red as in:
RRRBRR

If instead the result was just 1 red, then a black as in RRRBRB, then the next time red shows up I will bet it to be followed by black.  Basically, follow what happens last.  Seems really stable.

Here are some results from a gap test with Red/Black.  The numbers represent the gap between hits:
2,1,2,1,1,1,3,1,1,3,3,4,1,1,1,2,2,1,2,6,3,1,1,1,3,3,1,7,6,1,2,1,2,1,2,3,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,
5,1,1,1,2,3,1,1,1,1,2

The win/loss rate using bet last strategy for this example would be:
LLLWWLLWLWWLWWLWLLWWLWWLWLLWLLLLLLWLWWWLLWWWWLWWWLWWLWLWWWL

The one thing I see very interesting is that losses and wins all seem to cluster.  Seems like parlay betting strategy would be good for this

« Last Edit: March 10, 2018, 10:18:33 PM by Reyth »
 
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kav

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Re: Skips and series are more balanced?
« Reply #63 on: March 12, 2018, 01:34:15 PM »
Thanks for bringing up this topic. It's one of my favorites.