Author Topic: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN  (Read 91596 times)

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palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #735 on: February 17, 2018, 02:37:16 PM »
As you have several roulettes to chose from, you will be seeing  a variety of situations.
If one roulette has a trigger ready and you haven't seen any virtual loss (losses), in one of the other roulettes, sure you can start betting on the roulette that displays a trigger. If you win there in no reason to stay in that roulette, if another  roulette will has a trigger. Or one or two virtual losses. 
The presence of virtual losses means that you can bet with a bigger chip. (since you saved the money that you would've lost if you were there at the beginning).
Higher certainty justifies a higher value chip. 
That way, the profits add up faster, or recovery will come much sooner. 

 

jerome26b

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #736 on: February 17, 2018, 03:29:59 PM »
Palestis,

with the use of 2 virtual loss like you do, are you still applying some red flags ? Which red flags you use for xxy and xyx triggers ?

Jérôme
 
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ahlidap

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #737 on: February 17, 2018, 04:23:36 PM »
Hello all,
I've just updated the software (please see attached image)

Changelog:
  • Fixed the bug on a hit, making progression goes -2
  • Added toggles to chose what kind of bets do you want to use (you can choose now to play only dozens for example)
  • Added Unit value (if you put 0.25, at 3rd bet, software will display a value of 0.75, instead 3)
  • Added betting steps (How many times to bet a dozen, defaults to 3)
For those who missed, details on how to access software are here:
https://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1376.msg31834#msg31834

 ;)

EDIT: If you don't see the changes, please force page reload (usually CTRL + F5)
 
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biturbo

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #738 on: February 17, 2018, 05:33:55 PM »
WOW. Absolutely fantastic, ahlidap!!! Many thanks!

 
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biturbo

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #739 on: February 17, 2018, 06:01:05 PM »
So I will start posting my (virtual or real) runs, just to keep track. Today I just virtually played with 400 real turns from Wiesbaden casino.
I kinda met a roller coaster of a run, with very good mixture of wins, losses and b2b. The statistics:
Among 400 turns, 56 triggers were met:
-26 "YXX" triggers:  11 hits on the first bet / 2 on the second / 2 on the third / 11 losses = 57.7 % hit
-18 "XYX" triggers: 8 / 2 / 1 / 7 losses = 61.1 % hits
-12 "XXY" triggers: 4 / 1 / 2 / 5 losses = 58.3 % hits (so no real difference between the three kinds of triggers on this run)

That totals a quite unusually bad 23 / 5 / 5 / 23. The good news were that, when we hit, we very often did it on the first bet of the attack.
The other good news were that the "stop betting" red flag (1st and 2nd bet were from the X dozen), worked fantastic. 4 red flags, 4 times we avoided losing unnecessary money at the third bet, it didn't hit.

Regarding B2Bs:
-1x 4 B2B  :'(
-5x 2 B2B
-9x isolated losses

I tried to simulate the win/loss:
-Using ahlidap porgression explained above: +9 units profit at the end. Minimum bankroll reached was -34 units.
-Palestis progression, as explained at the original method on the web front page, ignoring B2Bs: +8 units. Minimum bankroll reached was -46.5.
-Palestis progression, but waiting for one virtual loss in order to bet, then staying until a win came: +10 units. Minimum reached was -22.5. However, only 20 triggers were bet... among 400 turns, it can get very boring, one really needs other tables to observe in parallel.

For the Dalembert (+1/-2) progression I have again a newbie stupid question: what is the starting point? 1 unit? Or a random 5 units, in order to have room under and above to escalate/descend?

My comments: Not the best run to test, but even it was a quite bad one we made a profit at all systems. Probably had to do with the high amount of first hit bets, most of them coming immediately after the B2Bs.
I don't know if I am understanding something wrong, but I have the feeling that we are losing good win opportunities by betting at "level 1" during win streaks. When i.e. 5 wins on a row appear, the usual thing is that only the first 1 or 2 wins are at high stakes, then the BR hits a new maximum/recovers from past losses... then 3 bets at level 1 until the next loss appears... So we don't really get the chance to come into high profits, what would be absolutely possible at a system with this high hit quote + bets paid 3:1. I will probably test the inverse bank management (going up when winning, down when losing).
 
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jerome26b

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #740 on: February 17, 2018, 06:12:59 PM »
thanks for the stats it's always valuable piece and concrete information. Same reccurent question i will ask which red flags are you using ? Cause it's something not yet completely clear for me. Usually i would apply these ones based on common sense :
- If there's zero in the trigger we drop the trigger.
- If there's 2 y just preceding the trigger i drop the trigger, so configurations like YYYXX for the YXX, YYXYX for XYX and YYXXY for the XXY trigger i don't play them.
- Same rule as before if there's at least 3 Y in the last 5 before the trigger.
- XXYXX i never play cause i see many times it's a loser (same apply if more X before).
If there's zero in the last 5 spins before the trigger what do you do ?
I will again simulate in my file of 4000 consecutive spins and try to collect some stats.

if i see your results with many hit at spin 1 is not an option to only bet once ? Maybe it's just variance of this particular 400 spins sequence and the same will not be true with another sample.

Jérôme
 

GIAJJENNO

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #741 on: February 17, 2018, 06:32:54 PM »
I start test also the system in online excel, but with 3 progressions, not 4. Dalembert, I think, has too big gap between wins, and losses, so I miss it.

If you wanna see, how I play, you can see in this spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t-IUGrED9-qL85Pp4-nh9H7_2augWhIVJF5f9jm_xGw/edit?usp=sharing

Not a good second session, but a quickly recovery come. Only 4 steps of the prrogressions I use, so If it is bust, we start again.

The profits under 2 sessions is with Palestis 26, Jake 26, and Ahlidap 22.
 

biturbo

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #742 on: February 17, 2018, 07:14:44 PM »
Jérôme

In order to simplify things, I am sticking to the original rules posted at the method:
-3 consecutive times the same dozen, don't bet until the spins "normalize" : This can get pretty much subjective and not as objective and mathematic as desirable, but if I meet a sequence as today: L-L-L-L-H-L-H-L-L-H-L... I just don't bet for the whole sequence. If you strictly adhere to  mathematic rules, you would have probably bet at the "L-H-L" trigger from sixth turn onwards... But my gut is telling me to wait until normal distribution arrives and the Ls stop being that dominant and the awkward sequence flushes away.
-Zeros during trigger search = reset; Zeros during an attack= a "normal" lost bet, as any other
-2 "X" during the first two bets of the attack, don't bet any third.

All other additional rules that were discussed during past pages, I am not using at the moment. I.e. The rule with the 3 out of the last 5 turns of a same kind... I have the feeling that they make the system too slow for my taste and involve too many additional things I have to watch after. In order to be able to apply it to 3-4 simultaneous tables in the future, it has to remain more intuitive.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2018, 07:20:19 PM by kav »
 

GIAJJENNO

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #743 on: February 17, 2018, 07:33:06 PM »
I start test also the system in online excel, but with 3 progressions, not 4. Dalembert, I think, has too big gap between wins, and losses, so I miss it.

If you wanna see, how I play, you can see in this spreadsheet.

https://docs / google / com/spreadsheets/d/1t-IUGrED9-qL85Pp4-nh9H7_2augWhIVJF5f9jm_xGw/edit?usp=sharing

Not a good second session, but a quickly recovery come. Only 4 steps of the prrogressions I use, so If it is bust, we start again.

The profits under 2 sessions is with Palestis 26, Jake 26, and Ahlidap 22.

After perfect session 3 we stay 51 51 47.
 

palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #744 on: February 17, 2018, 09:54:13 PM »
Palestis,

with the use of 2 virtual loss like you do, are you still applying some red flags ? Which red flags you use for xxy and xyx triggers ?
Jérôme
Actually I don't consult any red flags.
2 virtual losses are hard to come by and when they are available I take advantage of them as they are. 4 B2B losses are very very rare even without any red flags.
If I only see one virtual loss I will pay some attention for possible red flags. But not when there 2 virtual losses.
 

GIAJJENNO

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #745 on: February 17, 2018, 10:01:25 PM »
After 600 spins I almost doubled all prgoression bankroll for 4 steps. It is quiet lot spins for this, maybe. The system has very good winloss ratio, of course, therefore we would win more than this. The payout is 1:3. In football betting, if we have on triple such high winloss ratio, we would have millionaire. Why we cant do this nothing, nothing to boost own bankroll, if the winrate is so high?

With Ahlidap progression we won 46 units, so we doubled the required 42 units.
With Palestis progression we won 52 units, required was 53 units.
With Jake progression we won the highest 57 units, BUT we dont doubled the required 60 units. Every session was around 120 spins.

Thanks.
 
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palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #746 on: February 17, 2018, 10:40:52 PM »

-Palestis progression, but waiting for one virtual loss in order to bet, then staying until a win came: +10 units. Minimum reached was -22.5. However, only 20 triggers were bet... among 400 turns, it can get very boring, one really needs other tables to observe in parallel.

When you have several tables under observation in parallel , the betting opportunities that you see while testing one roulette table (with virtual losses), multiplies by the number of tables you are monitoring.
So if you got 20 triggers that were ready for betting in 400 spins, when you observe 4 tables you will get 80 betting opportunities.
Depending on the amount of the minimum chip you are using, you can chose how many betting opps. you need. With $25 min chip, 15 betting opps. after 2 virtual B2B losses, should give you a very good profit for the session. With $50 min., 7-8 betting opps. also gives you a very good profit. With $100 chips 3-4 successful betting opps. you get an excellent profit and in a very short period.
So the min. chip makes a big difference in the number of bets you will execute in a session.
Also if there is a trigger in a roulette and no virtual losses, you can start betting with $5 or $10.
If you locate one virtual loss you can increase the starting chip to $15 or $20, and when you see 2 virtual losses you can start with $25 or $30. Or more depending on your B/R.
So  the more frequent B2B losses ( if any),   after a trigger with no prior virtual losses will be written off by the higher chip after virtual losses, when certainty is much higher.
But that doesn't mean  you can't make a profit betting after a trigger with out any prior virtual losses.
Here is another important thing to remember.
When you back count to locate virtual losses, it doesn't always happen that you will get exactly 1 or 2 virtual losses.
 It could happen that you will get one virtual loss of an entire trigger, PLUS one or 2 individual virtually lost bets of  the next trigger,  after the trigger that was lost virtually. (in all its 3 steps).
So in effect you only need 1 bet to complete the 3rd betting step of that trigger, before you will wait for the next trigger to bet 3 steps. 
Back counting is not as simple as it sounds. It requires concentration and attention to avoid mistakes.
It takes a lot of practice to become expert, because you have to learn to work backwards.
That is y I also use the PATTERN REPEAT of a single dozen, which is an offshoot of this system .
Simply because working backwards is very very easy. And the W/L ratio is almost the same.
I have mentioned it in this thread and I can describe it again if someone is interested.

« Last Edit: February 17, 2018, 10:48:02 PM by palestis »
 
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GIAJJENNO

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #747 on: February 18, 2018, 12:20:36 AM »


That is y I also use the PATTERN REPEAT of a single dozen, which is an offshoot of this system .
Simply because working backwards is very very easy. And the W/L ratio is almost the same.
I have mentioned it in this thread and I can describe it again if someone is interested.

Hi Palestis,

I would recommend, that please create a NEW TOPIC to PATTERN REPEAT SYSTEM. Deserves it.
 

ShadowBlue

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #748 on: February 18, 2018, 11:57:01 AM »
Hi Mr Eko,

About Eddie progression you already have it Jekhb76 is Eddie. Nice to see the system is working fine on RNG too.

When you play only one table with virtual losses it can be a grind. That's why it is important to play different systems. You are looking for multiple triggers and you don't have to wait so long.

As far as playing RNG it won't be a problem for virtual losses to come fast . When playing with different live roulette tables i would play the strongest virtual loss trigger. Play it until a win and then start over again.

So you alway's play one table at a time. Just like Palestis said you have to wait a little longer but you can start with higher chips and thus bigger profit. And because you are looking at more tables at the same time the triggers come faster.

 
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biturbo

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #749 on: February 18, 2018, 01:15:27 PM »
Second run of 400 turns at Wiesbaden casino, this time with a trigger hit quote more according to the approx. 75% that I was observing until now.
I only "played" until turn #334, then I stop because I would have also done so in real conditions: a streak of 9 out of 10 same dozen, followed by two consecutive 0s. I'd for sure call it a night, therefore I did here also.

As last time, here the statistics divided by triggers (win at 1st bet - 2nd - 3rd // loss):
-Yxx: 8-5-4 // 6 - 74% hits
-xYx: 5-3-3 // 5 - 68% hits
-xxY: 1-3-2 // 1 - 85% hits (too less triggers maybe)

Meaning a total of 14-11-9 hits and 9 lost triggers. 3 of them were a stop loss at 2nd bet (2 of them correctly protected from a sure loss)
Regarding B2Bs, I only met 1x a 3-B2B and 2x a 2-B2B loss. In between, huge W streaks of even 11 wins in a row.

I tested then the different bank roll systems, this time including some inverse sequences (go up at the wins) in order to try to maximize the usual win streaks. They are all negatively influenced by a B2B loss at the end of the run... By having set a win loss, I would have probably avoided them and the results would've been better. Lesson learned  ;D

-Palestis (original method): +22
-Palestis with 1 virtual loss prior attack: -2
-Palestis with inverse system (go up one level when hitting the 1st, stay when hitting 2nd or 3rd, go down when loss): I stopped at turn #191 with a +155 units profit. The progression is way too hard for an inverse system, I would never in life risk a +155 profit with a 64-64-128 bet. Not realistic  :) . However, good system for setting a win stop?
-Holloway (1-1-1-1-2-2...) with inverse system, as above: +19
-Jake: +33. The minimums hit here were significantly lower than at all other systems.

At all systems, I always went to the minimum level needed in order to hit a new high BR.

Conclusions after 800 turns:
1. I will definitely go on testing the inverse progressions, they look much better fitting to a bet of this hit rate and quote paid. The virtual loss system doesn't look very nice on a single table, as:
-It takes centuries between bet and bet
-One watches nice 11x win streaks flush away without betting  :(

2. I definitely have to establish a proper win stop / loss stop. Currently tending to +50 win stop / -30 loss stop, but will continue optimizing.

PS: Sorry for the long novel, but maybe somebody finds interesting finally seeing some real runs. Who knows...
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 01:18:31 PM by biturbo »
 
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