I will post additional spin reports here (until further notice).
I just accidentally hit level 5 (got tagged when voluntarily on level 4) and voluntarily went to level 6 to grab some extra profit. I brought it back up to 20 units and crashed back down to level 4 again before it suddenly dawned on me that I was in a bad wheel state.
So I carefully brought it back up to 19 units again and simply took the small loss after a cluster of wins. Its pretty much as simple as listening to what the wheel is telling us.
So far no problems, plenty of bankroll to handle it all. However, it was pretty shocking to watch it blow through 2 levels so rapidly. I should of realized my situation and took the 20 units small loss the first time.
Its kind of fun surfing the levels, focusing on expectation and spin results.
Update: Next session restored all profit.
This is an expectation tracker. It generates a running total like in counting cards with blackjack, based on where you gain each hit in the progression; positive means you're due, negative means you're being overpaid.
The first hit in a session is always free (0 value) unless it is a positive figure.
Its no surprise when you are -5 that the bottom drops out on the progression.
This is the reason we keep the sessions so short; we are attempting to grab profits and bail before the wheel can swing back and take them away. I just had a session with 11 units of profit and a count of -8, MAN it felt good to bail on that!!
When we drop to a lower level, every spin is +1 to the count until we get a hit and things continue as normal from there.
3:+1 is the sweet spot because not only do you get paid 2 units but you get to increase the count by 1 as well! We shouuld always want to take our hits outside of expectation so the profit train just keeps a rollin' along!
Tracking the expectation in this way has inspired me with an experimental practice which is to not end a session that has a significantly positive count until there is a sign of at least a minor reversal; in other words, stay in the session as long as conditions are looking at their best.
A concrete example occurred in one of my recent sessions where the count was +3 when the 10 unit goal was achieved. I stayed in and took an additional hit on the the very next spin which brought the count down to +1 and that was enough for me to see in order to end the session; i.e. there is no need to see how much the wheel would regard an early hit like that.
In another session, I had a failure and the count went out to +11. I decided to drop down to Level 3 and I stayed there and got several hits until it dropped to +8, surpassing my original 10 unit exit goal. I then dropped back to Level 1, taking a couple more hits and exited at +6.
The reason I exited at +6 is because it represented a 5 point reversal in the count which would quite likely require a short term drawdown to compensate; i.e.
counter-swings work both ways,
for us (when we are down) and
against us (when we are up).
Early test results on this expectation tracking are indicating that even Red Level outcomes are being easily reversed by carefully following the count, staying at lower than natural Levels until the count starts to reverse, which generally creates actual session profit.Its definitely a judgment call on how much profit you want to attempt to generate subsequent to two or more failures (i.e. Red Level Outcome):
small loss (extremely conservative)
small win (conservative)
large win (aggressive)
OutcomesEasy Win [+10-+12 units] -- The progression simply doesn't fail for 10-12 units of win. (51%-61% chance)
Struggle Win [+1 or +2 units] -- The progression fails but recovery is easily gained. (59%-82% chance)
Struggle Loss [(?)15-30(?) units] -- The progression fails at least twice and the session must be ended as soon as practical, gauging the Expectation Count and current debt.
It is elementary to recognize which outcome we are facing as the results unfold and thus the proper course of action is clearly defined.
The reason for the range of percentages is the random outcomes of either 1 unit or 2 units in payout; this clearly shows the benefit of dynamic payout (as opposed to EC static payout).
Here is the progression if we win 2-3 units on every coup:
1 2 3 4 6 9 14 (-39)I wonder if it is worth it? An extra 13 units on Level 1 would increase profitable chances to more than 72% per session....
It could be that "Expectation Count Surfing
tm" should be used to increase profit percentages while keeping the progression cost as low as possible...?
I will try and map out this surfing method:
Some of the criteria are based on the result of the last spin while others are absolute rules.
INTERPOLATION OF THE ZERO: This tends to make the current score 1 point weaker (+1) for each zero encountered BUT it also tends to indicate a strong future since the zero is the least likely to repeat of any number (since it appeared). I am not sure we will be able to make sense of the zero as each counter-move we make is a catch-22.
Expectation Count SurfingCOUNT<>DEBT<>ACTION-1 (or less)<>+10 (or greater)<>END SESSION
-5 (or less)<>+0 (or less)<>REDUCE CHIPS TO 1 UNIT
+4 (or greater)<>+0 (or greater)<>MOVE DOWN 1 LEVEL
-1 (or less)<>+1 (or greater & prev. failure)<>END SESSION
There is a method that runs while there is debt and the count is positive.
If the last spin is:
-EV go up a Level
+EV go down a Level
+0 EV remain at the same LevelThis surfing method should be monitored with the debt where benchmarks are noted for +1 profit & +10 profit and risk is reduced as the profit grows and/or the count shrinks.
In other words, keep in mind that counter-swings WILL happen and you when they do, you want to be at Level 1 or close to it (or better yet closed out of the server).
Keeping in mind the previous, you don't want to raise up a level TOO soon; i.e. if the debt in units isn't close to or below 10 X (current level-1) you probably don't want to lower but remain on the same level until the debt is lowered to a more acceptable amount.
Obviously if the count becomes negative or there has been an overall swing in the count of +5 or more, you should be rushing towards the exit as fast as is practical.
The key concept is that apart from whether the count is actually negative or positive, its not the number of the count as much as it is THE MOVEMENT IN A SINGLE DIRECTION that the count has undergone; by way of example, in a recent Red Outcome session, I ended it with a count of +7 because it had come down from +15!! My total profit there was +27 units and I intended to give 0 units back on a short-term drawdown because 15 points in any one direction is such a statistical rarity!
The Two Cardinal Rules1) The more the count shrinks, the closer you should be to Level 1/logged out.
2) The more profit you have, the closer you should be to Level 1/logged out.
https://youtu.be/zqYGLiUXDLA Most of the time Red Outcomes will be profitable (PURPLE) but on the rare occasion they will simply loop in a stale manner, seemingly to not recognize a largely inflated count (BLACK); this is due to short-term counter-swings and is characterized by multiple failures (3-4+) in a single session.
When our session is BLACK we need to either terminate it in the Red (-15 to -30 units) or in the Orange (+1 or +2 units).
So far I have not encountered a BLACK session that could not be ended in the Orange (when attempted); this is because there is a short-term recovery loop that generates profit for the aggressive bettor.
UPDATE: Ok, I finally had my first BLACK-BLACK session. The count went to over 50 and after seeing that it just kept blowing through thresholds and not recovering, I decided to simply end the session at 1025 units bankroll, down from 1331 units.
This sort of session is obviously very rare, where it ignores the count. Therefore I think the solution is to put a stop loss on the count of +20. It will be much less expensive to simply take that loss instead of trying to battle a crazy wheel.
I have never seen a count above 20 before now, so the stop loss is quite stable.
Now, as far as recovering my 306 units of debt, I think I should try to double my unit size but only shoot for a win goal of 15 units. This should fully recover the debt in 20 sessions and lower my overall risk because only 6-7 coups will end the session.
I will update any debt recovery details here and track it all in the main post.
UPDATE: All the debt is now eclipsed. Very interesting that I encountered my second 20 count ever during this recovery; it was because the wheel kept giving late hits over and over during the progression. So, because of this, I logged out before I had fully recovered the debt and got the rest in the very next session.
Final note on this 300 unit debt, it represents me trying to deal with a 20 count and then a 30 count and 40 and 50 before giving up. Surrendering at only 20 will be far less expensive.
UPDATE: I am now trying a new method where if the count goes -5 or less, I end the session before hitting the 10 unit win goal. Why push it, right?
UPDATE: Wow. I just had my double-BLACK failure during recovery. I guess it had to happen eventually; this 3 time around at doubling the bank has been estraordinarily tough. The good news is that the bankroll is holding quite well.
I will track any relevant details here and the totals in the main post.
ZOMGOSH! Triple double-BLACK failure! At this point the bankroll is slipping quite a bit, in fact it has cracked -- making a separate note here:
(-131 units) (-143 units) (-213 units)
I will be quite aggressive on the recovery and will track the details as usual.
UPDATE: Got hit with ANOTHER double-BLACK during recovery. My balance is reduced to 831 units, total damage from this failed recovery attempt is -638 units.
Granted my account is up almost +300 units from where I started 3 days ago but I can't help feeling that there is something wrong with my approach somehow.
I need to think about this some more. At the very least, the double-BLACK phenomenon is not as rare as it first appeared to be.
