### Author Topic: Player edge origins.  (Read 3150 times)

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#### MrPerfect.

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##### Player edge origins.
« on: January 15, 2017, 11:35:53 AM »
Game of roulette itself is unbeatable using math. There Einstein was wright. No matter strategies or progressions, on the long run house wins. If it doesn't win from you personally,  it has many other players that more then compensate for your humble ocasional win.
It happens because HE has origin on math itself. While there are 37 numbers on the wheel, payment for direct hit is only 35:1. This ratio does not change with any bet selection you may imply.
HE relay highly on the model of " perfect wheel" , where wheel itself behave as perfect random number generator. However, practice show that some wheels are not that "perfect", if not all of them, besides that things wear out with the time....
Result of this is very simple to understand,  yet very dramatic in nature- some numbers hit more then basic probability would dictate, some hit less. There are physical reasons why numbers hit unevenly, be it normal wear of equipment, or result of sloppy maintenance  ( most of the time)... in short, what it supposed to be topographically ( geometrically) perfect device, becomes not that even. It results in zones of numbers or individual numbers preforming differently then basic probability would make you to expect.
Differences are tiny, but comulative. To illustrate how these differences can affect your result, make a simple test. Collect 5-600 spins and simulate betting on 5 best numbers, do the same thing for 5 worst ones...  compare results.
When choosing something other then numbers itself, outside bets for example, player has relatively same chances to choose mix between best and worst numbers, so results eventually level out and this there HE kick in. To prevent HE to have its affect on your bets, choose numbers wisely.

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2017, 12:59:46 PM »
Numbers are not only source of income to the player. Wheel may have " distance bias".
Uneven distrebution of hits to the diamonds may produce common drop zones ( where ball enters numbers in relation to fixed position on stator).
If player knows where ball is expected to drop on the stator, calculating wich numbers gonna be there is a qwestion of vb prediction. On some cases even Dealer signature can be uplied , if dealer is consistent and ball doesn't jump much.
If ball jumps great deal and there is no strong correlation between ball entering number and final number, numbers themselves should be looked more closely.
Wheels are all different and may posses different defects, often even dealer spinning habits do affect both distances and numbers, it's due to different ball deceleration on the ball track (distances) and different ball jump after coliding with diamonds ( numbers).  In short, need to pay atention and carefully observe what the ball does in every individual spin and in general.
There is a way to highly pamp your edge as a player. You need to study wheel for both , numbers and distances. Then only bet favorable numbers and only when distances (and general ball jump dispersion )point to them . This way sometimes you can get edge on the wheels where by vb alone or by numbers it wouldn't be profitable

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2017, 04:29:25 PM »
So VB alone may not be profitable Mr.P  ? A combination of VB and numbers could be profitable ? Perhaps - but perhaps not.
Winning Numbers have always been variable because that is the nature of randomness . Nothing to do with supposed defects in wheels .
As both Kaisan and Scott have admitted modern wheels have made their method of wheel tracking more unlikely to be profitable nowadays.
As for maths being useless we can use the numbers on the wheel for predictions . If we can , as you say, use distances for prediction we can  treat any arrangement of 3 sets of 12 numbers as is done with dozens and columns - job done   But betting dozens and columns are much easier and cheaper for betting purposes and VB advocates must still place their bets on the table.
Nice to see that you now think that VB is not THE ONLY WAY ! Welcome to the real world of gambling !

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2017, 05:54:50 PM »
Scepticus,  l never claimed that VB is the only way. In arsenal of player there are at least 2 more very good and reliable tools. It's DS and Bias play.
On wheel l follow now, there is no possibility to play VB or conventional DS.  It's bet before spin. So the only way on that wheel for me is numbers themselves.  Playing numbers only and exclusively. .  It's not easy ...

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2017, 07:54:28 PM »
ANY method of predicting winning numbers is not easy Mr.P.
I have enjoyed many of your posts but your insistence that AP is superior to any Method is unsupportable because you don’t know what methods others use.
I am not the only one who thinks that Dealer’s Signature and Bias play are not the good and reliable ways to win you claim. The Wizard of Odds, for example thinks it highly unlikely that a Dealer can consistently spin the ball so that it lands in  a particular small section of the wheel  under real casino conditions.
Imagination is required to think that modern wheels have  a Bias sufficient to be exploited . Mathematicians and Physicists would, I think , put your supposed Bias down to the randomness of the wheel. Christian Kaisan and   Laurance Scott also think it unlikely that any modern wheel has sufficient bias to be exploitable and they  are highly regarded in AP folklore.
You ,yourself, have posted a way that we can use the wheel numbers for possible  profit - divide the wheel into 4. THAT is a Method is it not ?
I look forward to the results of your experiment which, I hope, are positive. I once experimented with much the same idea with the Near- Middle Distance and Distance  twelves but the  results were a bit iffy .

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2017, 08:55:34 PM »
Big idea with distances is their consistency. It's not wich distance is better, but how likely it's to repeat itself. Besides , more then one distance can be active at the moment, it can be very confusing for inexperienced in this way of play player. One way to simplify it a bit is to control both, rotor speed and distance till diamond.
Obviosly ball jumps gonna water it down, but these do require separate study on their own.
In this case we consider not only distances ( may be multiple) but expected ball jump that these distances is likely to produce. What we target in this case is overlaps in ball resting zone ( where it stops most of the time).
Sencerely speaking, it's more easy to play with add of pc and some dedicated excel.... to adjust for changes properly.

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2017, 12:09:34 AM »
You said it took a year or two to master your technique and that roulette could not be beaten with maths. I am saying that roulette   can be beaten with maths either using the table layout or
wheel numbers. Fairly simple maths do not need a year to learn as opposed to so called Advantage Play. Nor am I trying to sell for money a computer or computer programme or system as some in the forum are trying to do.
Different strokes for different folks.

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2017, 03:07:53 AM »
It took me more then year or 2...
It's not a technique either. What lm working on is to make my understanding of this game as deep as l can. Wheels are different, they may behave differently in different times, different balls ... ets.
It's simply interesting. Every one of them is a challenge,  some are more of it then others.
Unfortunately l can not study many wheels at the same time, l can not clone myself either
You for example did mentioned my rc, it's just a tool to provide information wich l consider reliable. Such a tool is used to follow changes in ball travel time better and more accurate. It's simply essential for someone who wanna maintein his margin playing vb.
I can easily relate with the data collected by the person who using my rc, it provides me with a key variables for a wheel assessment.  This way l could study wheels wich are located in the places l probably will never visit personaly ...
Coming back to this topic .... real origin of the players edge is in understanding of the wheel and it's behavior. This understanding based on data collected helps to see the edge , quantify it and maintein.

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2017, 03:47:14 PM »
The “ Player’s Edge” is a maths concept  applied to gambling -  that one possibility has more chance of  happening than another and that the odds on offer mean that the player is more likely to win than lose. It does not mean - as is generally supposed - that the player MUST win  at some point .Only that he has an advantage hence the term “ Advantage Player”.
What I am disputing is the AP claim that their version of using the wheel is the only way to beat the House with no understanding that the wheel can also be used to develop a a Method .And without the need for the accumulation of lots of time consuming data.
Bayes, Palestis , HarryJ and others  also think - as I do - that we can beat the House Edge by using a Method.
Reality beats Theory and I don’t expect to live till Infinity!

Still, carry on with your experiment. It should be interesting.

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#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2017, 04:19:47 PM »
You probably do not gonna dispute the fact that playing with edge is better then without it.
Would be nice find something that works mecanically on any wheel... unfortunately up till now it's not the case. On other hand , if something fall more then other, and in fact does gives money, it should be accounted for and included in the playing model, don't you thing so?
AP is about finding this " something" and determining when it works as expected. That is all about it.

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2017, 05:54:18 PM »
No one that I am aware of disputes that betting with an Edge  is better  than betting without an Edge , mr P, but it can only be a “ perceived  Edge” because it is necessarily based on an assumption. And that assumption may or not be true because  there are factors which we just cannot know beforehand.  In short , we  can only  make an educated guess as to the “likely” winning numbers.

A method need not be “mechanical” if it involves a calculation after each spin.

It is not only self- styled AP that are looking for the missing” something”. That is what the Method players in this forum are also doing. Just look at the variety of ideas here. You and I may not agree with them but they are certainly - if vainly - looking for that “something “ you mention.
I hope you find the “ missing link or links “.

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#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2017, 07:32:39 PM »
Hat off. Not really expected to find something about percieved vs real edge on your post. Good to know you are not only criticising,  but reading posts as well .
You are right here.... that's why we need more variables accounted. This way we can find relationship between variables and final results. It permits to see situation from different angles and have more control over it.
Obviously it's more work as well..  but nothing comes by itself if not a flu...

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2017, 03:10:31 PM »
Guys, Scepticus actually rased a very good point on his last post. It's perceived std with actual std.
They can be similar,  but not nessesary the same. Reason is fluctuations ( variance ) that our data sample may be subject to.
Numbers and their respective persentages can lie on the short run. Sample has to be statistically significant and verified by corresponding stats procedures. Things like factor analysis and hypotesys testing are essential.
So guys, hands on the tricky business of learning stats , thanks god it's more easy now at the edge if enternet. Google is your best friend.
And do not give up too soon. If someone dumb like me can do it, you potentially can do it also.

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#### Bayes

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2017, 03:33:32 PM »
Differences are tiny, but comulative. To illustrate how these differences can affect your result, make a simple test. Collect 5-600 spins and simulate betting on 5 best numbers, do the same thing for 5 worst ones...  compare results.

I did. I took a random file of actuals (so no 'cherry-picking') and extracted the first 650. The simulation tracked spins until there were 5 numbers left (after 59 spins). These were the cold numbers, and the 5 hottest numbers were also selected at this point to begin betting on. For the remaining spins the current 5 hottest and coldest numbers were played with separate banks. Here's a plot of the results:

Quite a difference, as you can see. I've also attached a file of the results.

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#### Bayes

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##### Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2017, 09:21:02 AM »
Things like factor analysis and hypotesys testing are essential.

There's a nice free program which is a clone of the famous SPSS software which costs about \$1000 per year. You can do all kinds of complex analyses, hypothesis tests, and manipulation of data just using point and click, no programming required and easier than a spreadsheet.

https://www.gnu.org/software/pspp/

Search youtube for tutorials.

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