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Author Topic: Why Progressions Fail  (Read 13874 times)

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scepticus

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Re: Why Progressions Fail
« Reply #90 on: November 28, 2016, 05:01:30 PM »
Firstly, Mike, I have always maintained that Bet Selection is the most important task for the Bettor. If you don’t pick winners you won’t win no matter what staking plan you employ. So, I agree with you there .
Secondly, whatever betting plan you have can be shown to win by showing a pattern of wins and losses that “ proves “ it.  And a pattern of wins and losses that show that it will lose .  . In effect you are  “ betting your beliefs .
Thirdly. Even if you think that by analysing your previous wins and losses you can produce an “ Edge” those wins and losses are unlikely to occur in the same sequence as your previous sequence / s  This means  that you are depending on an assumption which may or not be correct.
That said, I think we humans would prefer  to rely  on a method rather than haphazard betting.
I don’t agree that betting a percentage of your betting bank is necessarily the best way of Money Management. After losses you will necessarily be betting reduced stakes on the
winners. The Kelly Criterion is touted as the best Money Management method but few, if anyone , uses it in practice. It requires you to bet 100% of your bank if you have a 100% Edge. That may be OK if you have “ the nuts” in poker but in other forms of gambling ?
I still prefer Flat Bets . They work fine for me -  so far ! And that , I think, is due to my  Bet Selection.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 06:54:13 PM by kav »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Why Progressions Fail
« Reply #91 on: November 28, 2016, 05:20:25 PM »
I am surprised Mr. Perfect, that as a UK gambler you don’t know what an” Accumulator “ is.
It is the same as your mutiplier it multiplies the odds of linked bets. The returns  of your first  winning bet is put  on the next bet and ,if that wins, then  the return from that is put on your next bet - and so on . Basically you are betting the opposite of a Martingale.Where for instance, Dobbelsteen  would lose 511 units on his 9 bets if they all lose you would win 512 units.  Where Dobbelsteen wins lots of 1 units before he loses his 9 in a row you would lose lots of 1 units before reaching your Nirvana ! Different stokes for different folks !
l do not do it. Instead l reinvest percent of my bank , not fixed %.  It permits to achieve similar effect as your accumulators, but not risks so much in one spin only. To put it simple, l bet always a persentage of bank, it's more flat bet then anything. I can tweak percent a bit ... plus l use sequential method, but it looks conditions trends instead of numbers.
   My betting has 2 hiden progression. 1 sequential- when it's good l bet more often.
2. Positive - up as you go correlated with edge wich is offered on target situation.
   It sounds difficult. I'll give an example.
  For a simplicity, there are 2 situations , one gives 10% , other 50%. If it's good for 1rst- l bet 1% of bank, if it's good for second - l bet 5%.
 

scepticus

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Re: Why Progressions Fail
« Reply #92 on: November 29, 2016, 06:02:57 AM »
Well, I don't do Accumulators either, Mr. Perfect. It was just your 25ps turned into 4 Grand that led me to think that was what you were  doing.
My view is that there is no " Best " betting strategy . It comes down to individual preference as it often depends on the individual's bankroll and the given odds for your bet. A varied bet may only allow a longer time at the table.
So what are the odds on offer for your 10% and 50% Mr.P ?  You  could still lose if your %5 bets don't perform as expected.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 06:53:39 PM by kav »
 

scepticus

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Re: Why Progressions Fail
« Reply #93 on: November 29, 2016, 09:02:46 PM »
Coming back to Mike’s first post in this thread.
I think the guy’s definition of Bet Selection  and Money Management are wrong.
His Bet Selection is what we normally call Money Management and his Money Management what we normally call Strategy.
His view of Flat Bets being really progressions is nonsense. The Marty - of which he talks - doesn’t fit that profile for Instance . Why oh Why do so many point out the problems with a Marty ? NO bettor that I have heard about uses a full Marty .
Wins and losses cancel each other  out ? A 3/1  shot wins and is cancelled out by a 3/1 loss? Why should we believe such pathetic nonsense ?
ALL that our critics really say is that we face odds against us and we cannot overcome those unfair odds. What they fail to understand is that is what all gamblers do - Try to beat unfair odds.
Progressions as any gambler should know can work - but they depend on a win within a given time / spin frame.
His is an opinion  but that is all it is .
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Why Progressions Fail
« Reply #94 on: November 29, 2016, 09:14:10 PM »
Everyone can soffer loss. Especially with no bank to play as l do.  On other hand , my losses are very minimum . I just need couple of hits on the row to revert to less agressive betting. If l get them, rest is boring math game. I can loose mini session, sometimes 2 till l get the " wave".
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 06:53:25 PM by kav »
 

MickyP

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Re: Why Progressions Fail
« Reply #95 on: February 21, 2018, 07:28:21 AM »
A lot of strong opinions in this thread.
Even though a conclusion was not forthcoming the arguments and counter arguments do give an insight into the qualities of progressions that may assist in using them; but using them wisely.
 

Jesper

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Re: Why Progressions Fail
« Reply #96 on: February 21, 2018, 09:09:26 AM »
There is no proof any bet selection is better than another. A proofed no random device can be attacked, and a selection based on that can work.

It is in this case (no bet selection can help if device random) impossible to for long win flat betting, as we must have a hit rate over expection all the time.

A progression can help, we can end winning even if the hit rate is as expection or below. There is a cost, a fail progression can be expensive. 

A random device is nearly impossible to beat, if the pay out is short. Any test will show, that a flat bettor on such devise may win, but very little.

A player use progression can lose, but also win, and in some cases the good runs can last long.

While compare we must count real spins, not any hocus Pocus waiting spins.

Progression fails for the same reasons as flat bets fail, the pay out is short.

 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Why Progressions Fail
« Reply #97 on: February 21, 2018, 11:50:17 AM »
There is no proof any bet selection is better than another. A proofed no random device can be attacked, and a selection based on that can work.

It is in this case (no bet selection can help if device random) impossible to for long win flat betting, as we must have a hit rate over expection all the time.

it's a wishfull thinking. You got no prove because you never looked for it. There is always bet selection that is better then other, there are just lazy folks who can not see it . Not math enough for such individuals.