Roulette Forum
Roulette Forum => Questions and Answers => Topic started by: Bayes on March 19, 2017, 02:21:29 PM

I noticed in a recent post our resident "AP guy" Mr P said that the only difference between AP and systems is that AP focuses on the wheel and not the layout. This doesn't seem right to me because you could convert most systems to that kind of "AP" by merely converting layout bets to wheel bets.
IMO the main differences are two:
 AP uses data based on an individual wheel, not some abstract wheel (so AP can't be applied without discrimination on all wheels).
 AP takes into account the physics of the device and data pertaining to it, not generic statistics which apply to an idealized version of the game.

Even AP has to deal with random sequences and so the two methods don't have to be related to achieve the same result?

I think the AP would deny that. S/He would demand that we first find out whether we're dealing with random sequences. If we are, no AP is possible.
So perhaps that's another criteria which defines AP: AP doesn't assume randomness, it looks for evidence of lack of it. Whereas the system player assumes randomness and this is no obstacle to play.

They must admit that randomness is at work, its BIAS that they are saying gives them a physical edge?

Yep, bias, but to what degree? Real says that all wheels are biased "to a certain extent". Even VB depends on bias. Randomness implies no bias.

Their worldview requires a premise that it is impossible win without bias. Only bias can allow them to win and that it is hopeless to win using just the random sequences.
You can't fault the philiosophy for its rugged survivalism.
It is impossible to prove that a system player cannot take bias into account using his system without even being aware of it.
Its the same destination but the perspectives are different whilst getting there.
Pip, pip, cheerio?

Bayes,
Since you are usually very careful with words, let me correct you by saying that bias can be random. Even a wheel in which the size of the pocket of one number is double, is still random. The probabilities for each number are not the same, but the game is random.

It is impossible to prove that a system player cannot take bias into account using his system without even being aware of it.
Agreed. In that case wouldn't it be better to design systems which take advantage of any possible bias instead of assuming no bias and designing systems around the principle that everything "evens out" or that events tend to "balance" (which is the principle that many systems are predicated on)?
@ Kav, yeah I should really have said "equally likely outcomes" (referring to pockets/numbers) instead of "random". Random is a tricky word to define. I would define a random wheel as one in which each pocket is equally likely to be hit and independent from every other pocket, both of which are assumptions for any given wheel.

The probabilities for each number are not the same, but the game is random.
So how would you define a wheel which is not random?

A non random wheel is a wheel that is predictable.
A wheel, for which a certain outcome (spin sequence) would be impossible.
In this regard, AP guys seem victims of GF. Even if a number pocket had double size this doesn't mean in cannot sleep for 37 or 60 or even 90 spins. Considering the fact that AP involves much less advantage than double size of a number, one understands the futility of AP.

LOL. I will stay quiet while the adults are talking. :/

hmmm... but if a wheel can be random and (to use your example) and have one pocket double the size of the others, then surely that wheel is "predictable" in a way in which a wheel with all pockets the same size, isn't. Note the contradiction.

:X

In what way is it predictable?
Still any outcome is possible.
There is no spin in which you can say "Wait! I know what number will come next."
PS: This is why, the house edge is no big deal, while variance is the big deal (https://www.roulette30.com/2013/10/roulettehouseedgestrategy.html). Probability is a description not a prediction of randomness. This is also why I say, that the math describe the problem  they are not the solution to the problem.

In this regard, AP guys seem victims of GF. Even if a number pocket had double size this doesn't mean in cannot sleep for 37 or 60 or even 90 spins. Considering the fact that AP involves much less advantage than double size of a number, one understands the futility of AP.
But you're not taking into account the payouts. If the payouts remain the same I know which number I'd bet on, in spite of possible long losing sequences. :)

In what way is it predictable? Still any outcome is possible. There is no spin in which you can say "Wait! I know what number will come next."
Any outcome is possible on the next spin, but over a sequence of spins there are limits. It wouldn't take much to detect the bias if one pocket was twice the size of the others, and that's the proof that outcomes are predictable. If all the pockets were the same size, there would be no way to tell which was more likely over a sequence of spins.

What limits are there over a sequence of spins? Tell me. Show me a spin sequence out of limits.
(If you can do it for a wheel with a doublesizenumber, then I'll show you how it can be done for a fair wheel too.)

Kav, isn't it obvious that there are limits if you're considering different probabilities? An even chance won't go missing for 100 spins, whereas a single number will. Similarly if one pocket is twice the size of the others, that number can be identified as having a higher probability because it reaches its limits more quickly than the other numbers. It's similar to the difference in distributions between a single and split.
I must admit I'm surprised that you seem so closedminded about AP.

This is very near to GF. You can't believe in "due events" and not believe in them at the same time. You want to have it both ways. Why a number with double size is due, but a normal number is not? Either both have a "due" point (different for each one) or neither. If every spin is independent there is no "due point". Past spins don't affect future results, remember?
PS: I'm not talking about AP  don't care. I'm talking mainly about prediction.

This is very near to GF. You can't believe in "due events" and not believe in them at the same time. You want to have it both ways.
But it's ok to talk about events being "due" if they have different probabilities. Obviously, a red is "due" before a single number, on average. I'm not committing GF in that case; it has nothing to do with past spins influencing future spins, but just the likelihood of one event compared to another. GF comes in when you say that one event has different probabilities under different circumstances, which if the assumption of independence holds, cannot be true.

To recap, my position is this:
You talk about probabilities and averages. Probabilities just describe the problem, the conditions of the wheel. Probabilities is another way to say "Well, I don't know for sure"
(because a single number can come before Red in your example)
I'm talking about the real outcomes. I'm talking about the prediction of outcomes, of any outcome at any time, with absolute certainty.
So, in my book, no matter the underlying probabilities, a game where you cannot make a single 100% certain prediction, in which every spin outcome is unpredictable, is a random game.

imo, these days ALL wheels are very well controled to the point i d say that all roulettes are electronics! , well ap methods couldnt never work under these conditions , but systems do work only if u bet at the table when other guys play as well ... i ve seen the ball to turn back so many times , isnt strange?

Let's get some facts straight.
1. AP means advantage play/player.
2. Everyone wants to win and in order to win in the long run you must have the edge.
3. If you find a way to get the edge and win, regardless of the game or strategy you are by definition an AP.
4. It is foolish and an oxymoron to state that you have a winning system/strategy but that your system is not an AP method.

So, in my book, no matter the underlying probabilities, a game where you cannot make a single 100% certain prediction, in which every spin outcome is unpredictable, is a random game.
Well by that definition, roulette isn't random, because some outcomes are 100% predictable. :)
In any case, I maintain that roulette isn't random unless all numbers are equally likely to hit.

2. Everyone wants to win and in order to win in the long run you must have the edge.
Natch, but you and other AP's insist that system players can never get an edge, so my post was about which principles make the difference, from that POV.

well if u say so ,then iam an ap player but i have an advantage over casinos using my math method ,and not claculating where the ball will drop , iam accepting that perhaps the roulette outcomes vary from casino to casino ,but those... new tech wheels seems that u have no chance to beat em that way, thats my impression ,right or wrong? , i cant say for sure , but i dont thinkthat they [casinos] let the things roll without to have the upper hand !

System player can sometimes get the edge. If he for some reason choose same group of numbers to bet as AP would, he will have edge .
It's just it's very unlikely to happen. Problem is that this group of numbers that has edge may move depending on conditions... so even if system player choose wisely now, choice can become wrong in the future. Without study of wheel it's very difficult to update choice of target.
Potentially can be anything, practically ... it's all other story.
There are many AP methods, on some , prediction in this very spin is not required. You still have aim, just do not have " prediction " for this very spin, instead you " predicting" that you will have a hit in " x" amount of spins in given conditions, for example.
It may become very similar for what system players a tempt to do, just aim choice is dictated by study and not personal believe.

of course it desnt matter if u re a system player ,u have to know the exact layout of the wheel, otherwise u cant call yourself a pro guy , we agree at this point , but some events will happen no matter what , the question is WHEN? in roulette we have to be pattient and if u have a good betselection u can easily turn the odds in your favor, every single day !

It is very easy to program the neighbor and sector bets. The features of a 3 number neighbor bet are exactly the same as the features of the single street. Sectors and neighbors can also be played with the the same systems of the table layout. System players can also bet on the wheel layout.

to bet on table lay out it doesnt means that u dont take under consideration the wheel layout , and u need much less money than betting on the wheel .

to bet on table lay out it doesnt means that u dont take under consideration the wheel layout , and u need much less money than betting on the wheel .
table is limited in posibilities in relation to wheel. That would be super if wheel lay out would be same as table, unfortunately it is not. Life of player could be 10 times more easy....

Let's get some facts straight.
1. AP means advantage play/player.
2. Everyone wants to win and in order to win in the long run you must have the edge.
3. If you find a way to get the edge and win, regardless of the game or strategy you are by definition an AP.
4. It is foolish and an oxymoron to state that you have a winning system/strategy but that your system is not an AP method.
IMO general consensus is that AP relates to using physical science and or structural analysis calculations of the game parameters to predict an advantageous strike zone on the apparatus.
Perhaps a very lucky fellow could exhibit an edge by purely chanciful means, and thereby definition does have an advantage, but that does not fit the general consensus of what constitutes an AP.
Basically, on the one hand we have science and math and logic, and on the other we have chance and luck and faith.
I've been around long enough to know that both can be victorious and both can suffer defeat.

An Edge means that you have an advantage . It does NOT mean that you MUST win ONLY that you are more likely to win than lose . Real still hasn't Got It !

AP can loose , l do often. It's just a knolidge that gives confidence , minisession lost mean nothing if your target is 500% of invested or more...
It's all should be seen in long run. If you know you got edge, nothing stop you to buy in more to get you target.
Edge is simply a freedom to know that you are due to win, provided you play adequete amount of spins and you do everything right. There are limits of math, you know, it's imposible to loose for long if you are right in your bet selection and money management.
As everything, it requires work, but what doesn't?

"an Edge means that you have an advantage"
Please give me a description of an advantage. My advantage is my knowledge of random sequences, my experience and my skill. My mind is also an advantage. A gambler play roulette as a donkey.

If your advantages , like mentioned above, do in fact produce edge for you, it can be shown on the graph. Just graph both situations ( when you use it and when you bet all spins) and compare results.
Some phisical advantages, like prediction, or wheel study is a bit more easy to represent on graph.
As a guide of such representation, you could use example from my " sequential method" topic.

On this and other forums I never saw a graph from an AP player. The problem for the AP player is , that he always have to play on a B&M roulette. IMO I think the live roulette on internet is also not suitable for an demo by an AP player.
A stratigic player uses triggers and never play all spins. I have presented many public demonstrations on internet playing in the real and practice mode. In Dutch we have not a good word for edge.

No need to serch much, l posted here lots of them. Bit of patience and you find them. All kind of graphs, bank graphs, chart graphs, edge graphs.. lots.

Dobbelsteen,
You don't have an edge. You're merely hopping in and out of the random game. You're basically just fooling yourself into believing you have one because you don't play for very long. Random guessing would work just as well. If you replace your predictions with a coin flip, you'll find that the results are the same.
In order to get a real advantage you must increase the accuracy of your prediction beyond 1 in 36 for a specific number. This is something that you simply can't do with your method over the long run. A real AP uses physics and or exploits a biased wheel.
In the case of bias, because of wear or poor wheel assembly such a wheel will hit specific numbers or sections more frequently than what probability would predict. In the case of physics the AP is using the position of the ball and wheel in order to predict where the ball will land in order to hit more frequently.

I have no doubt that there are very successful AP players. But I have some questions relating more to the wheel physics part of AP, rather than socalled "dealer signatures".
It seems to me that any "substantial" brick or mortar casino would have an army of statistical geeks in their employ constantly looking for any abnormalities of wheel performance  and would immediately take action upon the discovery of such. I can imagine how frustrating it could be studying and analyzing a particular wheel for some time...finding a bias....attacking the wheel....only to find that a pit boss replaced it the night before based upon a report from their bean counter office.
Perhaps they attack less "astute" venues such as carnivals, fairs, Vegas nights at the Elks Lodge, or private "noncasino" games. There could potentially be numerous opportunities with such.
I have trouble accepting that many "state of the art" full blown casino's would be so naive as to slack on their statistical examinations....but i could be wrong.....every venue could have some differences.

Sheridan, you think that statistical diferences is main for AP. Yes some ways of play is based on that, but that is not main. And "army of statistical geeks" from casino side here can nothing to do. And main reason for that that casino peoples usually is very weak in that thing.
The same like you  the same they not  understand how AP wins and because of this for them is super hard. If they do something, they usually not let for AP to play, but this way they also not let to play for many natural loosers and usually they lost much more than wins.
In theese casinos where owners are more less clever  they not worry about AP till they are in normal plus. And if think that loosers can lost 1000 times more , than AP can win, really AP wins for them is nothing....

Sheridan @. Ones l contacted a fellow who pioneered low profile wheels creation. It was a surprise for me to know how little this guy understand of AP. Well, l contacted him more then ones...
The thing is that ... what makes roulette beatable is out of control of both sides, be it AP or casino. In case of AP, we can simply wait, if wheel is not beatable now, tomorrow or in a month it may very well become.
Level of stats needed to assess wheel properly is out of range for most statisticians. We are speaking about applied stats, people who can do these, normally work for big institutions like insurance companies, hedge funds, investment banks.... they earn more on the job then average good AP.
AP, the good ones are recerchers. They are looking not for money ( altroth it helps a lot), but for a chellenge. Do you see, many people like to be effective on what they do, some even looking for a perfection or exercise for their brains. AP is a perfect tool for that, upper limit is a sky... if one wants self development, roulette is a best for that. It's more entertaining then any game that gamers play.

I am waiting for the first AP player, who publish the results a full session of 100 spins. I want to see the numbers and the sectors they bet. I think AP players use also bet selection. Not every spin should be a hit.
All the time words and words but never a report. It is very easy to publish a fake report . I believe in the fairness of our fellow participants AP players.

That probably will be a bit difficult. .. it's more easy to publish study results then game results.
The thing is, ones " model of the wheel" ( map where to bet) is created, most AP just use it without recording aditional info.... it's not easy to keep track of what to do in current situation. Normally all atention goes there instead of recording bets itself. At least l do this way.
Probably folks who have teams will be more capable to allocate one fellow for " performance analytical study"... for these who by themselves, it's just not practical.

It seems to me that any "substantial" brick or mortar casino would have an army of statistical geeks in their employ constantly looking for any abnormalities of wheel performance...
I used to think that too, but according to Real, casinos only take steps when a wheel isn't paying as expected, which kinda makes sense; if it ain't broke don't fix it, and statistical geeks don't come cheap. I believe some casinos run a chisquare goodnessoffit test on data collected by the optical reader, but that's about as far as it goes.

I am waiting for the first AP player, who publish the results a full session of 100 spins. I want to see the numbers and the sectors they bet. I think AP players use also bet selection. Not every spin should be a hit.
All the time words and words but never a report. It is very easy to publish a fake report . I believe in the fairness of our fellow participants AP players.
I can post the spreadsheet. I'd rather post it on another forum though and provide the link to that forum rather than posting it here.

I'll be happy to assist you with any posting you would like to make without needing to reference any outside sources.
2 possible solutions:
1) Change the extension from .xls to .txt and any who download will change it back
2) Zip it and it should post fine (.zip)

I am waiting for the first AP player, who publish the results a full session of 100 spins. I want to see the numbers and the sectors they bet. I think AP players use also bet selection. Not every spin should be a hit.
All the time words and words but never a report. It is very easy to publish a fake report . I believe in the fairness of our fellow participants AP players.
Not clear what you want to see in these results... Say Real look to what i betted  that is nothing for him, only if i play bias.
To understand what i bet he must know prehistory of play  for example data, accordingly which i play and must know based on what i play.
Simply where i bet is totally not informative . The only  you can calculate how often i hit...
And i will repeat  all depends on what you want to see. And remember no one AP will show, will say more , than is possible.
I usually compare AP with knowledges, where is treasure hidden. About treasure is possible to talk important things only with useful peoples, with others... possible to talk , but not say important things....

I'll be happy to assist you with any posting you would like to make without needing to reference any outside sources.
2 possible solutions:
1) Change the extension from .xls to .txt and any who download will change it back
2) Zip it and it should post fine (.zip)
Reyth,
I know how to post it. I just don't feel like going into such detail on this forum, only to have another one of my posts cut up and pasted into some other thread by you.

Unfortunately everyone here knows why your post was moved to the "Gambler's Fallacy Mega Thread" and therefore your assertion that a meaningful post would be moved, is falling upon a very large number of deaf ears.

Reyth,
I suppose I should expect nothing less from you considering you know so very little about the game and how to beat the wheel. You're doing a fine job of ensuring that facts, mathematics, and valuable information elude this forum. ;)

Everyone would be happy to see your facts in the form of the oft referenced .xls file and thanks.