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Author Topic: How do I make my systems?  (Read 8552 times)

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DrTalos

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #30 on: February 22, 2018, 12:16:42 AM »
Every system should be built around a target.
  What the target is doesn't really matter, and the designation of a target is on player shoulder, rely on his experience and his way to see the game.
  Who spent some time at the roulette wheel, sure noticed something that can be used as a target, for example the four repetition of the same dozen.

Let's say we accept this as our target. We do not know when or how frequently this situation occurs, but we reasonably believe that happens often enough to be a valuable information, and a trustfully target.
  Now we have to build a system on dozen who will end when that target, that situation, shows up. It is just that.

A system must have a single target in mind, not two or three. We try to survive, playing more or less numbers, with progression or flat bet, till the situation we fixed as a target will shows up and close our session for us.
  Sure, there are target more easy to hit, and some more hard. In the first scenario session will be short, and the variance will ask us a lot of faith, while the second can be longer, safer sessions, but at the end shouldn't really matter.

In the system I posted about dozens and column, the target is to have a certain number of repetitions back to back. We need to survive till this sequence becames effective. Here's the tweak I created to get advantage of the target without loosing everything before time.
  After a hit, I usually raise one unit. If hit again, I keep raising, and when I miss the bet decrease of one unit. If hit, the next bet will be the highest bet I reached before plus 1.
  The sequence will look like
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1 hit
  2 hit
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1 hit
  4 hit
  5 hit
  6
  5
  4 hit
  7

Hope is clear.
 
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MickyP

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #31 on: March 01, 2018, 07:40:46 PM »
I find the manner that you approach system design intriguing. DrTalos you really are an inspiration.

I like the idea of a game with one target but I think having more than one target is not wrong.  There can be a few targets that are played individually within the same game (series of spins). If this is done correctly it could be a profitable way to play.

I understand that you are looking at repeating patterns to determine the target that will run the duration of the game. Trends are possible patterns in the making; why not focus the game on current unfolding trends and have a moving target instead of a static one?

 

Scarface

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #32 on: March 01, 2018, 10:57:52 PM »
Dr Talos, I'm assuming you're method of play starts off with many numbers and goes to few if no hits Like a parachute.  Maybe when it gets to the target numbers, you're change strategy to 2 or more hits in a series of spins to put you in profit.  Guess the specifics all depend on what the target is.

Here's an example of what I'm thinking.  I will use the target of street 12 (34,35,36).  Every bet will include those numbers. 

If win any bet, start over.  If lose go to next step:

1) Bet 1 chip on 5 double streets
2) Bet 1 chip on 5 quads
3) Bet 1 chip on 5 streets
4) Bet 1 chip on 5 splits
5) Bet 1 chip on 5 singles
6) Bet 6 chips on target street 12 for up to 7 spins ( will be a total of 12 spins so far

***most hits will happen in the first 6 steps, if not continue***
7)  Bet target street for 12 more spins...If you get 1 hit, then repeat this step....If you get 2 hits, you're in profit so start over with new target
8.)Same as 7.  Double wager...2 hits in 12 spins will be profit
« Last Edit: March 01, 2018, 11:01:32 PM by Scarface »
 
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DrTalos

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #33 on: March 02, 2018, 12:00:58 AM »
I remember Reyth used an image of a Jellyfish, once, for one of his project/system. That was an appropriate image for my system. I don't play a decreasing amount of number, but the total of them, and the way of it, changes during the game, accordingly to the situation I am in.
  This flexibility is part of the success of my system, I think.

I don't think there is nothing conceptually wrong in targeting more than a situation, but is not my way of thinking. I work better when I have just one enemy to defeat, just a single situation to occur, than multiple options sometimes conflicting one another. As I said, this is my way to think about systems. I am happy if gives anybody options and thoughts.
  The example I gave was just an example. You can have a target completely different, a situation that fits more your way to play. My intentions was suggesting an approach, not a declared path.
  A moving target is still a target, so I don't see anything wrong in it.

Now, what differs my system with others I made is that this one works without flaws since 2012/2013 (was that winter, I don't remember exactly the first day I played it). And I think the difference is because I exploited a weakness of the game (a philosophical, structural weakness, not a mathematical one... Or maybe even a mathematical one, I do not know because my math skill is not so great).
  You need to find a concept original, maybe absurd, and put it to test, because in the last few centuries many attacked the game and lost, so you can consider that all the "basic" principles are already been used. Adding numbers, law of the third, fibonacci progression, negative or positive progression... You name it. They are all been tested and failed.
  What you wanna find is a undiscovered chart, a hidden passage. Something that take advantage of a rule you are not aware of. Is like the guy who tried to invent the strongest glue ever, and created post-it, the barely adhesive piece of paper, so exactly the opposite of what he was looking for. He made his fortune. Will you consider this a success, or a failure?

Avoid the simple solutions, go original, go crazy, brainstorming. This is my advice, this is my philosophy.

 
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kav

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #34 on: March 06, 2018, 03:07:54 AM »
This topic is for Talos to share his thought process and answer questions - without interruptions.
The debate about revealing his system etc., has been moved here
« Last Edit: March 06, 2018, 03:16:36 AM by kav »
 
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Reyth

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #35 on: March 06, 2018, 08:47:47 AM »
Awesome!  I will also moderate this thread! :D
 
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kav

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #36 on: March 06, 2018, 10:12:47 PM »
Bumped, so people can see this is still active.
 
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DrTalos

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #37 on: March 31, 2018, 01:57:54 PM »
I mention in another thread that systems, in my opinion, are a 2 parts thing. The first is the basic concept of the system, like bet selection, progression if is the case, triggers... The idea the system is built on.
  As an example, consider a system that targets neighbors. You bet on the coldest number and the 2 pockets close to it, with the assumption that if the target number is getting cold is because the pockets near him are collecting tons of hits (is an idea as good as any).
  Cover five numbers with a flat bet for seven spins costs you 35 units. If we do a progression, we can go for 3 more spins, and the bankroll needed si 65 units. Let go to x3 and add two more spins. Total now is 95. One more, x4, means two more spins, -135. x5, one spin, -160.
  At this point, we played 75 numbers total. Because of how things work in roulette, we didn't get a hit. We need to recover that negative balance.
  This is the crucial point. We cannot relay on putting more and more money. At a certain point the request of cash will be unbearable, of for table limits or for our pockets. Many people decide to go a little further, invest like 1000 units and if doesn't ends well, well, register a bad day.
  Others fix a stop loss, considering that the vast majority of game will end in the first 15 spins. The amount won will compensate the bad loss. And if you select what to play, with triggers and red flags, you can do it.

As you already know, I don't think that wheel has memory. I think that previous spins have zero influence on next spins. Every time I can't see clearly the subject of my study I step back, and I try to observe from a distance.
  Wheel has rules, but roulette rules works only on big numbers. Casinos rely on that. Many many players, some will win and some will lose. Because they pay less of what is mathematically fair, at the end they will win (I know, HE, common knowledge). I think also we can use roulette rules against it. There is no a strong point that is in the same way a point of weakness. Tao, Yin/Yang. Night comprehend day, and day comprehend night. Good has a drop of evil, and the other way around.
  I am digressing, as always.

So, back to recovery.
  You can be aggressive, considering that what has not happen yet will have to happen soon (a sort of GF), and attack the wheel with knife in your teeth, that can be reducing numbers played, increasing bet, a mix of the two...
  Or diversion, switch completely "system" and play the hottest one, or chasing a repeater, with a reduced progression so to wait more than one hit to solve the game.
  Or whatever you may think of.

What I wanna point out is that the recovery must be the core of any system. No matter what system you use, you will need to recover your balance at some point.

When I did Bertrand, I made for levels of recovery. During the years, I never used the fourth, so I redesigned the system to get a little advantage at the beginning of the session. I found out that will never happen to bet more than two thousands numbers to fall in the 1/60 ratio the system is built upon.
  Now, my first four bets are
1 units EC
2 units EC
2 units DZ
3 units DZ

This informations is useless, IMO. I played 60 numbers, with 8 units total, and a good percent of games are already closed with a winning of a single unit. Is at this point that I start recover? No, the basic system proceeds (and is not that hard understand how).
  But, what I wanna point out, is that this is a good statistical start, nothing more. You can have better, I have better.
  We need to set the basic system in a way to avoid the recovery be impossible. This is a very important concept.
  If I have a system that ends well in 98% of games, but if not I have a balance of 1200 units to recover, unfortunately there is no recover able to regain that (if there is, play directly the recover).
 
 
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MickyP

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #38 on: March 31, 2018, 03:19:27 PM »
DrTalos, looking at your first four bets the hit rate should potentially be very good. The recovery is the secret ingredient to recover losses and register a win. Is the first step of a progression and all steps thereafter used in a system not also a recovery tool? Progressions have a built in recovery plan that recoup losses and registers a win as well.
My main question is... Is your recovery a different system all together? In other words you have a standard 4/5 step system and at a loss you begin the recovery which is a different system. Each level of recovery is a different system.
Am I even close to understanding the recovery plan?
 
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Scarface

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #39 on: March 31, 2018, 04:30:23 PM »
Dr Talos, this method is similar to what I was describing earlier that I play sometimes.  It's a bit of a grind but works pretty well.  Basically, with 5 units I start with 5 double streets, and if no hit them cover 5 quads.  If no hit, then 5 streets.  If no hit, then 5 splits.  Usually hit in the first level of doing this before I get to 5 singles.  Parachute progression reducing numbers played with higher payouts.

If I get down to 5 singles with no hit, I'll change to a different strategy altogether.  Now, I might just play 3 numbers for 12 spins...this time I'm looking for 2 hits in 12 spins for recovery
 
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DrTalos

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #40 on: March 31, 2018, 04:47:56 PM »
You all shouldn't focus on this. Is the recover the beating heart of every system.
  The difference between a system and a recovery is that the system needs a single hit to end a session, while recovery implies several hits to go back to normal expectations, and so to get a profit.
  For the recovery to have a chance of a success must have few units to recover, and rely on a situation that "must" occur.

The recovery and the system should be, in my opinion, a different way to grab the same target. As you can see, my first 4 spins cover the 1/60 ratio. The rest of the system push a little bit forward to a worst ratio than that. If I do not hit, the recovery kicks in, and in the recovery I need to reach that ratio (or close. If I have three hits in a row, even when the game is way far from the starting point, because of progression I can close the session with a ratio of 1/70, for example).
  The trick is to keep exposition low, to keep your numbers (as a negative balance) as little as possible.
  As I said, at this point combinations (street, double street, splits...) are not the same.

 
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Scarface

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #41 on: March 31, 2018, 05:08:19 PM »
I get what you're saying and I think it is a good way to start.  So, at the beginning of the game you play a system that is most likely to hit probably 90% of the time.  In your example you played even bets twice, followed by dozen bets twice.  Invested 8 units and covered 60 numbers.  So now the recovery is based on hits coming sooner in clusters.  Maybe change strategy to betting a quad for 9 spins, or a street for 12 spins...pretty much play less numbers for more spins but trying to catch 2 or more wins. 

This is how I play a lot.  Start with a system that wins most of the time in the first 4 to 5 bets.  If I do get a loss, my recovery is to bet fewer numbers looking for 2 or more hits ( like 3 numbers in 12 spins, trying to catch at least 2 hits in 12 spins).  When playing fewer numbers, I always pick recent repeaters
« Last Edit: March 31, 2018, 05:13:32 PM by Scarface »
 
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GIAJJENNO

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #42 on: March 31, 2018, 05:22:57 PM »
It is a good system to play for one unit when the negative gap can reach -90 or -243? And the recover the -93 for hours? Then why dont you play the recover system like a winning system?
 

MickyP

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #43 on: March 31, 2018, 05:40:42 PM »
Scarface, you put my rambling in order; thanks.

It appears that the main system is the cash cow and the recovery is the grass that feeds the cow.
This leads to another question; is pure recovery not chasing losses?
I do understand that there are four levels of recovery and DrTalos you have not had to use the fourth level so the recovery must have a strong bet selection. If the recovery requires a few wins to completion then the payout on a win must be small so I guess perhaps recovery covers more than 18 numbers. Here again I could be wrong.
I'd like to hear more opinions on recovery.
 
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DrTalos

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #44 on: March 31, 2018, 05:41:57 PM »
Giajjenno, if you read what I wrote, and read carefully, you will find answers to your questions...