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Author Topic: How do I make my systems?  (Read 8551 times)

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DrTalos

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How do I make my systems?
« on: February 11, 2018, 10:32:37 PM »
Probably I should have done this long ago. Probably because of my laziness I followed Reyth thread about my system and gave some hints there, instead of pushing one on my own.
  Here I will provide some thought about how I see the game, how I approach it, how I create my systems (during the years has been many, and even if the vast majority of them were not winning ones, they did taught me lessons, especially about what I should pursue and what was not worthy to be elaborate any further)

Will not be all in one shot. I will post here more and more, try to answer your questions at the best of my possibilities. Because I will not talk about my system, but about ideas in general, I found appropriate to post it in the Philosophy section. Everybody is more than welcome to share their thought on my ideas, as this forum is all about, hoping for courtesy and respect (too much to ask?). I say sorry in advance if some of my ideas are very well known by some players and they get bored by it.

Let's start saying that I do not trust online casinos and RNG. Why? because I think that the first is rigged and the second is just a slot who can determine the outcome accordingly. I do have proof of that? No, I don't. Do I have proof that airball machines or live table are perfectly trustfully? No as well, just seems to me that are harder to manipulate.
  Why this specifications? Because you need to be comfortable playing. If you do not trust the machine, you will fail, you will loose money because you will make the fail to happen. Is a prophecy self-realizing.
  Easy to understand how it works: if there is a strange patterns of outcomes in a live roulette, your mind will see it just a coincidence, while if this happens in a RNG who you fear can be manipulated, you will perceive it has a proof of your worst concerns came into reality.
  Because the psychology of the player is the most important thing in the game, you must start from this.
  Pay attention how much Casinos try to work with your mind and your weaknesses: no clock at the walls, no windows, free drink and stay, very noisy slot machines for winning and bonuses, loud celebration of other people winnings... all is made for you to loose your focus. Even the switch from money to chips, or to tickets, is to help you waste more money: put a twenty dollar bill on a table is way harder than putting a green chips.
 
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cht

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2018, 01:49:08 AM »
Online live dealer games can have the vidoes manipulated.

Roulette wheels can be manipulated with air jets and magnets.
 

Reyth

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2018, 05:18:06 AM »
Before I play at an RNG site, I need to know someone that has played successfully there, both winning and withdrawing.  There is a site I would love to play at called Shark Roulette but so far I haven't found anyone I know who plays there...  :'(
 

MickyP

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2018, 09:16:18 AM »
A players mindset is important. Players enjoy a fast game and are thus drawn to RNG and Airball. What makes it more welcoming is the low chip value. A loss is no big deal when playing with 0.01 value chips. However, small losses add up to big losses. I don't mind the pace of a B/M table. The minimum chip value makes me more focused on winning. The game is taken more seriously in this regard.
 

palestis

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2018, 09:46:39 AM »
If you lose with pennies in an RNG online casino it's not a problem as far as amount lost.
But psychologically it is a problem if you play the same system the same way with higher chips  in a B+M casino.
Winning everywhere adds confidence to the system. You want the system to win no matter where you play it.
 
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Jesper

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2018, 10:31:18 AM »
The method of play is very different at low units rng. The total bet on the table can be rather high, and span more spins. On line is rapid, so it is time, chip value low so there is bankroll.  Many methods suitable on line will for several reason not working well at a BM casino.  We talk about 300 spins an hour comparing to 40-90. If we like to use progressions it is possible to stand longer losing with a reasonable bankroll.  With low values every win is normal lower, but the speed compensate. And there is overhead cost if the BM casino is not next door.
 
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DrTalos

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2018, 01:05:21 PM »
At a certain point, I stumble across the Monty Hall Problem. A brief summary for who do not know it.

You have three doors. Behind one you have a car, the other two have a goat.
  You pick a door. After your pick one of the other door is revealed, showing a goat.
  Now the question is: you stay with your pick or you switch to the other unopened door?
Here's the paradox. If you switch, you win 50% of the time, while if you stay with your original pick you will win just 1/3 of the time.

It is counter intuitive, but it is easy to understand how it works. If you switch you choose among two, if you don't you stick with your choice among three.

Now, how I used it in my system making process? Bet selection.
  I started working on columns and dozens, because my simple mind found it perfectly fit with the three door option. One of the three dozen will be late, will become sooner or later a sleeper, so I will not bet on it.
  I tried several time to work on repeater or on casual selection, and I always found the the repeater will have a shorter session then a casual one, or way shorter if you compare with a cold one.
  In the last situation, you chase the sleeper, and sure as hell you'll find it, destroying your bankroll.

So, what I found out many years ago is to work with repeaters, no matter if they are single numbers, dozens, corners or whatever.

I will post in the system section the system originated with this thinking. Was very profitable for a long time, especially with a tweak I made later on.

 
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Jesper

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2018, 05:34:41 PM »
Dr Talos may come to show something, but use a lot of space and bandwidth in a lot vague long and repeated posts, making a long thread.  Check what use to be!

Please analyse the posts, it can sounds great, but vague and say very little.

I do make systems and explain it straight away!!
 
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Reyth

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2018, 05:53:28 PM »
I like his style.  He gets me thinking.  I hope he keeps posting in any way he wants.



 
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jerome26b

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2018, 07:41:03 PM »
hmmm,

i don’t see how conditional probabilities apply with random INDÉPENDANT roulette outcomes. In the monty hall problem we know for sure there’s 2 goats and a car, that’s fixed data in the current game. how it can be applied between random roulette spins it can’t. I’m no a probabilistic specialist and it was a very difficult but interestic material and brain disturbing at the faculty but maybe some math specialist can emphasis this more ?

About the topic of RNG i don’t trust RNG for me they are programmed to give a ratio between in/out at the end of the month and i would be very against playing any progression on RNG. They can be like slots machine give what you want when the ratio is on your favour or produce any number to keep the HE of the bank. At the end even if they can prove the numbers are random they are probably not in term of money waged. It’s so easy to play on that and program it as well. You can win at the rate they fixed like any slot. That’s my idea about how it works.
For live online spins i’m quite confident they are fair for some like immersive or unibet live tv streamed with hundreds people playing at the same time so how can they manipulate that or the video ? Furthermore even if they can cheat players at high stakes it will be maybe for my benefit no? the only problems i experienced sometimes and it pissed me of is some technical sudden problems and your bets are refused. you re in a middle of a progression and your number hit at that moment. i had some experiences like that and i don’t put any money on unreliable streams sites.

kind regards,

jerome
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 07:57:02 PM by jerome26b »
 
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TheGenner

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2018, 08:00:39 PM »
If you discount a dozen/column which is a sleeper for arguments sake, you are then left with either 2 dozens or columns representing 50% each. So regardless if you change from one to the other, you still have 50%. Where as with 'Monty Hall' you are always starting off with 3 options. I just don't see how this could work well with roulette. There are a lot of these type of conundrums which on the face of it look like they could provide some kind of opportunity in roulette. ie..birthday paradox, monty hall, pidgeonhole principle...etc... One of my favourite writers and a solid 'math's guy  "Ion Saliu" states none of them can work and explains why on some of the pages on his site.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 08:04:05 PM by TheGenner »
 
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scepticus

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2018, 01:45:22 AM »
I think the solution of the Monty Hall problem is that;
In the first instance you have a choice of 1 from 3
After Monty opens a box there are now 2 choices
Intuitively we think we now have a 1 in 2 chance so stick with our original choice.
The Probabalist  would reason that initially you had 2 against your choice . The opening of one box only means that only one of your opponents has left the fray - so you should change.
 
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scepticus

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2018, 02:23:23 AM »
I was so intrigued with Dr Talos approach that I used Scoblete's single zero spins in his book Spin Roulette Gold .
First 7 won followed by 6 consecutive losses followed by another 1 win - for a 10 point profit !
Might be worth pursuing  !
 
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DrTalos

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2018, 03:00:15 AM »
I did not say that the paradox can be of any use in the roulette game. What this thread is about is how I make my system, where I can find ideas and how I apply those. I hope this can help someone expanding a little bit his way of face the challenge.
  I am not a mathematician, so I need a different approach. I always find more interesting working with oblique thinking, like one of the guy I admire most, and about who I will talk in the next post: Edward De Bono.
 
 
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Reyth

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Re: How do I make my systems?
« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2018, 05:20:23 AM »