I think you should concentrate on finding a betting methodology that reduces the number of chips on the felt each spin for an acceptable level of risk (of losing the spin)
This is one of my concerns indeed.
...whilst at the same time having a prospect of riding some positive variance when it occurs. Forget this line of thinking as it simply has no merit
Believing in the possible benefits of positive variance and not in the possible benefits of recovery, is so one-sided as believing that this BBBBBB
is more probable than this BBBRRR
. Both are equally probable. What kind of sequences/situations one wants to capitalize on is a personal strategic decision.
Unless one is attempting to target numbers in a sector of the track's circumference (or possibly even a single number) on the grounds of a biased wheel or possible recurring dealer action, then the fact that on a losing spin the winning number happens to be adjacent to one bet on seems to me to be irrelevant - as all numbers have an equal chance of showing.
The whole concept of "near misses" having any significance is another myth that goes along with the Gamblers' Fallacy, and adjusting betting patterns to take account of losses resulting from near misses (ie covering the numbers each side of the original bet, or switching the original bet) is simply voodoo thinking.
Depends on how you define significance. If you have ever played an important bet straight up and the neighbor number hit, you would know how... significant that would feel. Biased wheel
or not, the wheel is a physical entity in which some number are close to other numbers. This is no voodoo. It is as real as it gets. I am not suggesting that the section 17-34 (next to each other) has higher probability to hit than 17-31 (away from each other). I am just making a strategic decision (based on various insights) that I want to avoid (to some extend) the "near miss" phenomenon.
[Btw, this is still a chaotic bet selection, I'm not just betting on one specific section of the wheel, but this another story.]
Btw, have you ever wondered why the numbers on the wheel are distributed the way they are
and not in an increasing order?