Author Topic: 22 Numbers  (Read 1379 times)

Sputnik

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22 Numbers
« on: May 30, 2016, 09:15:08 AM »

I want to show you the reason behind this two 22 number bets.
John Patrick and Brett Morton come up with the same conclusion.
Both wanted a bet where it makes it hard for the wheel and dealer missing the numbers we pick.
So the 22 number strategi has no more then 2 pockets gap between a placed bet all over the wheel layout.

Before i show the Wheel/Table bets with Europen and American wheel i want to mention that John Patrick go into Deep discussion about staking plans for 22 number bet which involve both up as you go and regression.
I will write about this as i will make this a hudge topic, because i see this strategy as hedge betting.

Brett Morton European Wheel:





John Patrick American Wheel:





 
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UK-21

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2016, 12:33:53 PM »
What is the basis behind making this bet? If you cover 22/37, it still means there'll be 15/37 that will generate a 22 unit loss (assuming straight up bets were made). As the numbers you've indicated cover the full circumference of the track, this isn't anything to do with sector tracking (or whatever you want to call it)?
 

Reyth

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2016, 12:46:19 PM »
To my mind the significance with this bet is the cost vs. the coverage.  With only 4 units a total of 22 numbers are covered which is VERY good. 

The problem/weakness with this system is the payout however:

The streets pay 2 and the quad pays 5 which means 2 win/4 loss AND 5 win/4 loss respectively.  So most of the time you are losing more (double) than you win which is not good.  The strong payout for the quad (where you win 1 unit more than you lose) only occurs on just 4 numbers which makes it too weak to be very effective imo.

Maybe the very strong cost vs. coverage will allow for a stronger progression that can bail it out?  :shrug:
« Last Edit: May 30, 2016, 12:48:53 PM by Reyth »
 
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Sputnik

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2016, 08:25:59 PM »
First i should say that you both move forward to Quick.
The unit size with the table Pictures above has nothing to do with the staking solutions for this bet.
I will write about it after i wrap my head around what Brett Morton and John Patrick suggest.
The first one give short version and the other one give a Deep long discustion with variations towards the strategi.
So i will open that part for discussion after i write it down.

Quote
What is the basis behind making this bet? If you cover 22/37, it still means there'll be 15/37 that will generate a 22 unit loss (assuming straight up bets were made). As the numbers you've indicated cover the full circumference of the track, this isn't anything to do with sector tracking (or whatever you want to call it)?

This has nothing to do with setor tracking and i can only say what both Brett Morton and John Patrick say about the selection with 22 numbers and i fully agree.
You only have at most a gap of two pockets between covered numbers on the Wheel layout.
All scattered all around the Wheel layout.
This make it difficult for a dealer to avoid your numbers if he or she had the skills to do so.
And does work as local attractors among a random indicator - the spin -

Quote
To my mind the significance with this bet is the cost vs. the coverage.  With only 4 units a total of 22 numbers are covered which is VERY good. 

The problem/weakness with this system is the payout however:

The streets pay 2 and the quad pays 5 which means 2 win/4 loss AND 5 win/4 loss respectively.  So most of the time you are losing more (double) than you win which is not good.  The strong payout for the quad (where you win 1 unit more than you lose) only occurs on just 4 numbers which makes it too weak to be very effective imo.

Maybe the very strong cost vs. coverage will allow for a stronger progression that can bail it out?  :shrug:

Reyth i will explain the staking methodology with this 22 number selection.
Is base upon two principals, one is up as you go and the other implement regression up & pull.
John Patrick wrote about this with a large chapter covering all angels and i will share what he say with my own Words and discussion.

To get this bet working you need to anylaze the random distribution into cycles and find the frequense for the cycle or median value to get a frame work with hitting locations and losing locations wich give us entering Points and exist Points.

First i will show the principals behind the staking variants and open up for discussion.
After that i will show the principal to build and develop the selection criteria towards when to bet and when to hold.

Cheers
« Last Edit: May 30, 2016, 08:28:46 PM by Sputnik »
 
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Harryj

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2016, 08:54:14 PM »
   Some time ago I did some research, dividing the wheel into groups of 2, 3, 4 numbers and then combining them into dozen and EC bets. The method worked quite well, but as the numbers had to be bet straight up. It was a bind to implement.
      Although Sputnk's method uses 22 numbers. Which is more than I like to bet at a time. The fact that it requires only 4 chips makes it interesting. I can't wait to see how he handles the progression.

     Harry
 
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Reyth

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2016, 09:01:12 PM »
I am definitely looking forward to the in depth strategic analysis! :D
 

Sputnik

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2016, 07:33:22 AM »

I will write about this thursday or friday.

Cheers
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 07:43:40 AM by Sputnik »
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2016, 11:44:38 AM »
All 22 number bets have the same features. The HE is unchangeable 2,703 %. There is one anomaly for the France roulette with  La Partage.
Bet one unit on High and one unit on 0/1/2/3. The He is 100x1,5/74=2,03% !!!!
.
 

Sheridan44

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2016, 04:35:56 PM »
Patrick also has an Action Number #2 Sequence...... which covers 18 numbers instead of 22.
I'm not endorsing it....just putting it up for group consumption....
 
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Trilobite

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2016, 10:57:29 AM »
Some years ago Bombus on VLS put up a system called, The 21 Gun Salute.
Surely not as easy to play, but definitely just as strong, or stronger.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2016, 12:00:35 PM »
It is not nesessary to place 1 unit on 0/1/2/3. With the same result you can place one unit on a low corner.
The most important feature of a system is simplicity.A low minimum  number of units to start the session,  an easy betting selection and a quick understandyble random sequence.
My very simpol 22 number bet is suitable for all well-known classic betting selections.
 

Jesper

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2016, 02:09:09 PM »
With two zeros and standrad payout, I just not bet!
 

Reyth

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2016, 03:40:40 PM »
Well one thing about 22 numbers is that the max expected successive loss is 17, so a progression combined with a trigger can be designed with that in mind, such as:

4.....-4
12.....-16
32.....-48
96.....144

Which quickly gets out of control.  So MAYBE a Casrch Star variant can be used where we seek 2 wins in a row...

 

Sputnik

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2016, 09:28:57 AM »
302 spins RNG
000000000020003021100200020000100020410301025030003200202100000100010001010010000110201000041001100101410000210320000200101101510001000002000012000010200001010111002000020300111101121

If we would bet three level progression against the extreme and worst, then 14 contra 2 would be 3.0 STDS.
Now look at the random distribution above with 22 numbers, if could see four loses or above three times in a row you would lose the hole three levels of dozen progression.

It would look like this 546 or in any other combination with four or higher three times in a row.
As each losing sequense end with a win you get four loses and one win and four loses and one win and four loses, that is 12 contra 2 and is 2.5 STDS if you count 18 contra 18 numbers.
But here we count less with 15 numbers contra 22 numbers wich make 12 contra 2 to reach 3.0 STDS or above.

Now if we bet after one losing sequense of four or more then we have gap of 4444 that is 16 loses and Three wins, also above 3.0 STDS.

For each level with the dozen progression need to win eight times to fall back to previos level.
It a kind or regression toward the mean where you only play after a indication of correction and that it would not grow into the extreme or worst.

If you play minimum table you could extand the three level progression into six levels and play aginst 3.0 STDS not fall back to back.
That means you have to experience above 3.0 STDS twice which might happen once in a life time or not at all.
Should also mention that this kind of selection criteria would work with Kavoras Bet.
The staking plan, level A) 1:1 1:1 3:3 9:9 level B) 3:3 3:3 9:9 27:27 level C) 9:9 9:9 27:27 81:81
As you can see the staking plan accept one unit loss at secound step, but the wins overcome this loop hole so you win overall.

If you would use the Three step staking plan into Three levels you would bet against 3333 which is 12 loses and 3 wins also around 3.0 STDS as you have 15 contra 22.

TRENDING
The medain value is 1 so the frequense of hits is pendling between 1 and 0.
So any trending would catch a win W or a break even LW.
The entering point can also be based upon gaps with loses not to increase, as i mention above.
So here we could develop a march for Regression Up & Pull or up as you go.
The question is the amount of attempts and how the strike ration compensate for losses.

JOHN PATRICK

You are always in action with each spin as the gap between each coverd number is not larger then two pockets.
So it make it very hard for a dealer to avoid your numbers.

JP name one line bet as insurance bet where you break even, optional.
1 to 6.

For example 2211.

Numbers 10 to 15 Pay 10 Lose 2 Profit 6
Numbers 28 to 33 Pay 10 Lose 2 Profit 6
Numbers 17 t0 21 Pay  8 Lose 1 Profit 3
Numbers  1 to  6 Pay  5 Lose 1 Profit Even

JP show one example with 3311 with minimum 3$ table limit.
But i don't fully understand hes example so i made my own above.
Just to illustrate the combination.

VARIATIONS OF BETS

Our bankroll dictate our session money.
Small bankroll and 2211 would be fine.

Here is some staking with higher values with 1$.

a.

Numbers 10 to 15 Bet 4 Profit 12
Numbers 28 to 33 Bet 4 Profit 12
Numbers  1 to  6 Bet 2 Profit Even
Numbers 17 to 21 Bet 2 Profit 6

b.

Numbers 10 to 15 Bet 5 Profit 15
Numbers 28 to 33 Bet 5 Profit 15
Numbers  1 to  6 Bet 3 Profit 3
Numbers 17 to 21 Bet 2 Profit 3

c.

Numbers 10 to 15 Bet 6 Profit 17
Numbers 28 to 33 Bet 6 Profit 17
Numbers  1 to  6 Bet 4 Profit 5
Numbers 17 to 21 Bet 3 Profit 8

There is two ways, conservativ or agressive.
The reason we show the above combinations is to make clear that if the lines show we make our biggest return.
And if the insurance line or corner bet hit we soften the possibility of the lines not showing.

a. You predetermined to play 22 numbers.
b. Chart the tables until you find a entering point.
c. Set win goal and loss limit.
d. Decide on initial bet or staking plan

So no more then four attempts to find a entering point or less.
Other wise you would be chasing loses into the big hole.

The question is if you are going to flat betting or use a small progression.
Or even lower you bet size if you lose your first two bets.
The combinations are endless.

Now assume you place 23 chips and profit 13 chips.
But this after losing twice.
(( and you want to win back your two loses))
((They are gone for ever and this winning spin is handled completely on it's own.))

Regression Up & Pull.
You can pull back 12 or 11 or 10 or 9 or 8 or 7 or whatever you want.

Here is a example of a Up & Pull situtaion.

a. 5-5-4-3
b. 5-5-4-3
c. 6-6-5-4
d. 6-6-5-4
e. 8-8-7-6
f. 8-8-7-6
g. 11-11-10-9

But you don't need to use Up & Pull all they way to the top, you can use regression between does up as you go if you are conservative.
And want to look in profits.

a. 6-6-4-3
b. 7-7-5-4
c. 6-6-4-3
d. 4-4-3-2
e. 6-6-5-4
f. 7-7-6-5

I will mention Brett Morton later, but he did not mention anything new which not has been mention above.

« Last Edit: June 02, 2016, 11:14:20 AM by Sputnik »
 
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Bebediktus

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Re: 22 Numbers
« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2016, 12:43:29 PM »
I can say only one note - like VB player i do diferent research and see actual  chance to hit for every number. Bigest mistake for player is to bet on number with  negative expectattion.
All will be nice if we exact will know what expectattion have every number, but we cant.

But are something what we can do and that what we can do is to try not to bet on negative expectattion number too much. Because usually with positive expectattions are only 7-10 numbers and very rare more , much better strategy is to cover less numbers.

Now lets imagine that 10 numbers are positive and  we bet 22 numbers. Even if we randomly cover all 10 we still usually play to minus !!! . So we teoretical have no chances to win in long run.

But say if we cover 12 numbers we sometimes can do quite positive bet.

So think about that and think also about theese which sugest you bet 18 numbers or more - they usually have aims which are diferen with yours  :) ....