Inspired by the discussion about randomness here
I came up with this absurd analogy.
Say you observe too many blacks in a row and you think that red is due to make a come back.
This is analogous to betting on a football match on the stronger side.
But you have to bet every minute of the game, that the stronger side will score.
You do bet on the stronger team, but the goal may come too late and you could have lost all your money till then. Or it may not score at all.
Take it with a grain of salt.