Author Topic: Prepairing for a long run!  (Read 907 times)

Jesper

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Prepairing for a long run!
« on: May 22, 2016, 04:04:58 PM »
What we do when testing a method, is to see if we can using betting strategies overcome the expected value and the variance on the negative side.  In a run of many thousend spins it will never since roulette was invented the very same stream show up twice, the combinations are so large it is hard to grasp, much more than all the stars if not atoms in the universe.. If we move just one number to an other place and then test again, the result can be very different.

That is the main reason I no days not run simulations. I know there are better or less better methods, but at the end it is the numbers we face during playing. The only numbers which are of importance are the numbers we bet.

With system and other means we try to  overcome the negative odds and the variance against us, and I think we can do it to a certain grade, in short time even very well.

Since there are on line casinos which offer fair odds, the problem which math-people repeat as the reason we can not win, it is to try to balance the variance.

I have seen one 1000 times a sleeping number, but which must be so rare I will never see it ever again, I think it must be over 5 SD. Today it was three 4:s in a row and a double after three spins. What happens, and we see it if we see
enough spins, and I may have played over a million, as it can be 1000 some days, it will takes some years but it is time, so I think I have done it. Knowing it has never been 1000 series which are exactly the same. The Chessboard problem deals with 64 times, and that is EC:s not numbers.

I think there are some limits which never will be passed unless we are extremely unlucky. Take a 1000 sleeper in accountt is like have a Lightning rod in the cap, probably not needed a sunny day.

If I should try a longer run in play using pennies, it should be the only valid way to do a test, as we never
meet the same twice.

Numbers will hit in clusters, they never (almost never) shows up at the expected value, there will be 37 spins with 0 to 5 of a kind. If 5 shows up I mean it can do it next time as well, but not forever.

It may be a session lasting some days  or it may be a week or even more, the limit is the bankroll.

The  plan is to use the same number all the time, which may be bad for a shorter test, but should not matter at all in a longer(if the outcome has no bias).

I have tried this before, did not lose anything, but the winnings were very small, like an Euro a 1000 spins.
This time try it again and use a negative progression, which not count for more than 600 miss in a row, and
then count with a period better.

 The autospin will be set to 37, as it is too boring waiting and attend it, and start it when I have time. My plan is to try to survive 100000 spins.

ZERO as number  all the time and run it for 37 spins, not stop on a hit, run it to end.   I have put 300 Euro in the bank, which may not be enough, I will  take decision of  more if the question arise(probably).

I will report back after 10000 spins or a failure.




 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Prepairing for a long run!
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2016, 09:26:46 PM »
I think you mix up the EV end HE. The autospin can only be used for system. A long run EC test shall always result in 2,7% lost.
 

Jesper

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Re: Prepairing for a long run!
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2016, 04:27:10 AM »
I think you mix up the EV end HE. The autospin can only be used for system. A long run EC test shall always result in 2,7% lost.

I am not sure I mix it up, The House advantage is in deed the expections, which is normally -1/37. On the table I use the EV is 0 and the expection.  The casino takes a rake of the winnings each session. As the EV is nor negative or positive the expection is 0.  The bet on a straight pays  37.

And of course we can use autospin every time we need many the same bets in a row. Which means a few systems will do, but a rather longer period flat bets.
 

Jesper

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Re: Prepairing for a long run!
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2016, 03:21:58 AM »
This takes quite long time, I am about 4% of the intended spins (4000). It moves slowly up and down.
I have tested two ways, a more aggressive which means rise the bets on break even runs, and that makes
a higher profit, but a higher risk. The bankroll of 300 is probably not large for that, so I do it more conservative, most of the time. The aggressive bets only if too many one hits, which is break even. I have been down once 100 Euro, betting with the aggressive approach, but never more than 20 Euro betting more conservative.

The best runs are not the losing and winning every second time, it is a loss of 37 bets if no zero hits in 37 spins.
It is a break even run if hit once.  The expected is one hit a run of 37, and that is as the expection in the long run, break even.  The progressions make a shift, as if I lose three i a row and hit three times the fourth runs of 37, the winnings are of course  there, not if I hit once every run, it would be one more hit, but break even.

The largest number of hits in one run has been 5.
 

Jesper

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Re: Prepairing for a long run!
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2016, 10:06:41 AM »
I have done  9182 spins, and got a double bankroll. The winnings are 318.70. But the method is too risky, where are better. The time I got one hit the run of 37 break even, and we can not have a method which mostly break even.
What I did were (at about 6000 spins) reduce the cycle to 30 spins, to get either win or loss.

I could lost the 300 Euro, very close three times, and I know it was lucky three hits saving me. If I continue I think it will happen. As most negative progressions it need a large bank, and here 300 is simply not enough. A larger bank should stand better,but the RFH will cost more.

If I continue it depends on when the bust comes, how much the winning should be, from 18.70 and up.
I see it too risky to continue and had in mind already at 5000 spins to do it, but setting the target to double the bank become the  decision.

I will try another 10000 spins on a single later, but use an method which has lower risk to fail heavy and sudden.

I stayed at the same number, as I would see if it matter in a long run, and I think i does, if I had checked the most
frequent numbers I should probably do better.  I saw 26 and 32 in almost  every round, and it by chance the numbers zero is between on the wheel.

The casino rules make sometimes us take risks, as we on a "fair odds" table must end with a win. That makes when we  play and have other things or people waiting a stress moment.

If we for example start with 100 and lose 50, end the session. Start again and win so the balance is 100 again, this 50 recover is a"win" obligated to 10% tax.

We can not have a session longer than 24 hours, and not have a break over an hour, in such case the session terminates.

We then must start over as soon we have a plus to safeguard we not pay commission for recover. Commission for both win and loss.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2016, 10:16:04 AM by Jesper »
 

Jesper

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Re: Prepairing for a long run!
« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2016, 08:05:18 AM »

OK I am ready to test an other method
betting one straight. This time at NOZERO.

This is an old method, invented maybe
in the 19th century, and reinvented by many,
who have bust on a negative progression.

It is the long sleep of a number it try to
overcome. A number can sleep up to 1000 spin
even if it is very rare, but a couple of hundred
is terrible enough for negative progressions.

Here we bet one and hope for a hit in the
next 35 spins on NOZ roulette.

If not  we continue with one chip until we
finally hit. We then rise the bet in order
to catch a sequence when the hit rate is good enough to make a positive balance.

The stake may not grow very high, but the number of them, make drawdowns which needs a bankroll
which is not too small.

Here the trials will progress just one at the time.

150 in bank and 0.1 chips

I will run about 20 trials before I report back.
 
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Jesper

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Re: Prepairing for a long run!
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2016, 09:58:51 AM »

Start the play on number 1
bet 0.1, autospin set to 1000.

first hit on spin 50 balance  -1.40
bet 2
second hit on spin 79  balance  - 0.
We could try 2 chips again, but I follow
the simple rule add one.
Bet 3 chips.
third hit on 84 th spin  balance  9.30.
First session ready! Save statistic.

New game on number 2.
hit on spin 7  balance   2.90
Total: 12.20
Session ready.Save statistic window.

New game on number 3.
First hit on spin 111  balance -7.50.
bet 2.
Hit on spin 113  balance -0.70
bet 3.
Hit on spin 134  balance  3.8ยด
Ready save statistic.
Total  16.00.

New game on number 4.
First hit on spin 69. balance - 3.30.
bet 2.
Hit on spin 202. Balance -22.70.
Bet 3
Hit on spin 350 . balance -56.30.
Bet 4.
Hit on spin 355. Balance -43.90
bet 5.
Hit on spin 399  balance -47.90.

It is deep and we can not expect
a very high rate of hits.
We can stop or increase the
bets more.
Bet 8.
Hit on spin 401. balance -20.70
bet 13
Hit on spin 466 balance  -58.40

Deeper, I have to try 21 units,
and it may be the last trial, as
the bank is in risk of depletion.

bet 21.
Hit on spin 480  balance -12.20.
The emergent threat is over.
Reduce the bet size to 4 units.
bet 4.
Hit on spin 519. Balance -13.40.
bet 5.
Hit on spin 547. Balance -9.40.
bet 6.
Hit on spin 556. balance  6.80.

Total 22.80.

I got enough of thrilling for today,
and take a break.
 

december

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Re: Prepairing for a long run!
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2016, 10:08:38 AM »
Jesper won again!
 

Jesper

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Re: Prepairing for a long run!
« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2016, 06:56:09 PM »
I did some spins using progression on a hit with single numbers.

Play on number 15
1 unit 0.1
Hit on spin 5.  3.10
Continue 15 1 unit.
Hit on spin 29    70

Total  3.80

Continue on 15 one unit.
hit on spin 37   -1 unit
two units on number 11
hit on spin 101   - 5.70

three units on number 11

Hit on spin 155   -11.10

Five units on number 11

Hit  on spin 166      1.40

Total 5.20.

1 unit on number 1.
hit on spin 101  -6.50

2 units on number 1

Hit on spin 167  -12.50

3 units on number 1

Hit on spin 210  -14.60.

5 units on number 1

Hit on spin 258   -20.6

8 units on number 1

Hit on spin 274   -4.6

13 nunits on number 1

Hit on spin 292   18.80

Total  24.00

If I have used 15 or 11
all the time it had been much more hits.