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Author Topic: Hedge Betting  (Read 1594 times)

Sputnik

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Hedge Betting
« on: May 18, 2016, 06:38:24 PM »

With sportbetting and stock market you have hedge - reducing risk.
How would this apply to Roulette ...

For example i am risking a bet and not winning, then i should turn around the situautaion and break even or still turn out winning bet but wilth less profit.

John Patrick has a hedge bet for roulette.
He only play low and black.
That way he has a break even situaion and one winning situtaion and 9 numbers against hes bet.
So the bet cover 28 numbers.
Have no clue what he use as trigger or differential betting or not.
But is one example of a bet with Hedge qualites.

Feel free to come with opinions and suggestions.

Cheers


 

Jesper

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2016, 06:45:33 PM »
Hedge betting is not good if the EV is negative, if fair odds it does not matter. If an edge we should cover all chances.
The negative expection grows and on no such thing we can hedged the bets and have a benefit. It is just an illusion on a single winning bet.
The turnover with normal roulette rules should be kept low.
 
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Sputnik

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2016, 07:07:34 PM »

I agree about house edge and negative expectation, but i don't agree about Hedge Betting would be something bad.
Lee Tutor in hes book and a member at this forum have post a great way to Hedge Betting.

For example you see number 29 hit.
Then you bet high that 29 will repeat.
If two loses you bet dozen once.
Then if a loss a line bet 3 times more.
If a lose a corner bet and if a lose a street and if a lose split and if a  lose straight up.

And the low black method is not bad methods.
They win and lose as others but i would prefer betting my example above then chasing one number straight up.
So keep a open mind and try to be flexibal.
 

Sputnik

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2016, 05:53:37 AM »

I should add one more that i Think is very common, when you use progression on two dozen, then you hedge betting on zero and accept overall smaller winnings.

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Jesper

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2016, 06:27:56 AM »

I should add one more that i Think is very common, when you use progression on two dozen, then you hedge betting on zero and accept overall smaller winnings.

Cheers

Such a insurance is expency and can pay for the day, but in time its price is higher than the benefit, and should be used on very special occasions, like the bet is unusual high from our normal play. If we play on line we can get all back if zero hits. Still there are more numbers which can make a loss, we can hedge 11 of them, but it will then be visible it has cost to hedge on a negative expection game. Even 2/3 bet as such is near the limit.
 
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Sputnik

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2016, 07:35:37 AM »

 Bayes also using Hege betting - reduce risk management.
 When he play with hes winning method on EC he use diversification.
 If i remember it correct he apply it with hes MM approch.

 Cheers
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2016, 09:00:09 AM »
In my strategy the zero is the devil.That is the reason I study the stats of the last 50 spins. If the zero has not fallen and mywger is rather high, I use one unit on zero as een Insurance.
For example: 30 units on high, 10 units on DS 7/12 and DS13/18 and one on the zero.
 
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Jesper

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2016, 10:33:12 AM »

 Bayes also using Hege betting - reduce risk management.
 When he play with hes winning method on EC he use diversification.
 If i remember it correct he apply it with hes MM approch.

 Cheers

I think Bayes understand the reason hedging is not a good practise on a negative EV, but it is different if we play at fair odds, then it is even adviceable.
 

Sputnik

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2016, 12:25:17 PM »

Here is Another method with low stake.
10 Euro minimum on EC and 0.25 minimum as straight up/line/corner/street and so on ...
Wait until one line fall into sleep and you bet 10 on high/low and 0.25 twice covering two lines.
30 numbers.

The high/low has to hit Three times and you are at break even.
Or Regression where you initial bet is higher and you lower with casino Money for the next bet.

Cheers
 
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Harryj

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2016, 01:26:51 PM »
  Hedge betting is simply a form of "insurance". By reducing the odds in favour of losing, we increase the chance of winning.

     Harry
 

Sputnik

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2016, 04:38:11 PM »
  Hedge betting is simply a form of "insurance". By reducing the odds in favour of losing, we increase the chance of winning.

     Harry

Yes and if we could apply Regression twoards does bet we would for sure have a winning situtaion.
Here is one more method which make me Think of reduce risk management betting.
The topic is made by AsymBacGuy from Betselection cc forum board.

Very clever!

Even though roulette is a perfect independent results' game, there are some interesting long term features that could be easily tested by everyone.
The strategy  was conducted over 1.500.000 real spins (single zero).

I mean some events are more likely than others. Unfortunately zero tax and some other practical features will lower a lot the value of such aknowledge.

The trigger we are looking for is really simple: we take note of the last number produced then we bet all the 3 EC belonging to this number. And this procedure is made per every last number sorted out.

For example number 33 sorted out, next spin we want to bet black, odd and high.

Obviously such betting will get 4 different outcomes (zero ignored):

- winning all 3 EC (sorting of 29,31,33,35): +3

- winning just one unit (sorting of 11,13,15,17,19,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28): +1

- losing just one unit (sorting of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,20,30,32,34,36): -1

- losing all 3 EC (sorting of 12,14,16,18): -3

Well, in the long run the number of spots winning all 3 bets are greater than the number of spots losing all 3 bets and it will increase the more the hands are played.

Of course to try getting the best of it from this finding needs also to take into account the spots where we'll either win or lose 1 unit.

Despite of what many may think, there are no better numbers or worse numbers to spot as triggers.

True, red-odd-low numbers or black-even-high numbers should have the theorical best probability to match the same EC on the next spin but this wasn't the case, at least on our quite long sample.

In a word and transferring the plan on the statistical field, we'll expect to have more single total different EC outcomes than streaks of different EC outcomes, more double different EC outcomes than 2+ streaks of different EC outcomes and so on. And the reverse is also true regarding the same EC situations (more streaks than single, more 2+ than doubles, etc).

The variance and the weight of zero could be quite high, yet the final result will be sure.
 

Jesper

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2016, 05:00:05 PM »
Zero ignoring makes the math easier, but not better. The HA makes all hedging a less better bet. It is situations however there a hedge has sense, but that's is exceptions. It can save one bet but will damage in a long number of bets.
 
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Sputnik

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Re: Hedge Betting
« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2016, 05:49:54 PM »
 It is Amazing what you can do with Hedge betting methodology.
 I test Guetting Progression and reach the highest level very easy using Hedge Betting Strategy.
 This is a new line of thinking for me and will also try this out with sportbetting :-) and online casinos with La Partage Rule ...

 
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