Author Topic: Are streaks like bombs in planes?  (Read 636 times)

kav

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Are streaks like bombs in planes?
« on: April 21, 2016, 10:38:08 PM »
I read an interesting discussion about the probability of long streaks here:
http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/15212/when-the-roulette-has-hit-5-reds-why-shouldnt-i-bet-to-black

I especially like this analogy in trying to explain why AFTER the streak has appeared the chance of the same chance to hit again is still 50%:

"There's an analogy that I like. Suppose I'm afraid to take planes as it's possible that some crazy terrorist brings a bomb onto the plane. Now it's really improbable that there are two bombs on the plane that I'm going to take. So I'll bring a bomb myself (which I of course won't detonate); then it's virtually impossible that anything happens. Well ..."


In the above analogy the bomb that I bring myself is the streak that already happened.

This doesn't necessarily mean I support the main idea, but it is a nice analogy nonetheless.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2016, 01:26:47 AM by kav »


 

Reyth

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Re: Are streaks like bombs in planes?
« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2016, 01:22:42 AM »
Ya the extreme view will always be that either system players or system critics have a "fallacy".  Taking the balanced middle ground just isn't as exciting.  :-[
 

Mike

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Re: Are streaks like bombs in planes?
« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2016, 06:20:54 AM »
The point of the post was to highlight the absurdity of waiting for "virtual losses", which it does very well.

The only "extreme" view is that math is itself a "view" or an opinion.
 

Harryj

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Re: Are streaks like bombs in planes?
« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2016, 02:14:25 PM »
   The real point is that long streaks are unusual. The math odds confirm that ! For a similar streak to occur almost immediately is even more unlikely. Again the odds will confirm this.

     The problem I find in trying to outplay the worst possible scenario,is that it requires a large bankroll. which MUST be exposed to risk. I find it more comfortable to use an average result. Obviously I will get a lot of losses, but if I have done my homework correctly, I will get more wins.

    Harry
 

Reyth

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Re: Are streaks like bombs in planes?
« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2016, 04:15:42 PM »
I know you are very good at progressions.  Have you ever tried using a declining progression as the elements of the progression increase to foster survival and preserve the bankroll for recovery?

E.G.:

15 bets standard progression 0 1 3 6 11 19 33 57 98 167

Then the 167 represents the peak and survival mode kicks in by banking debt.

114 195 (again bank) 133 (bank) 91 (bank) 62 (bank) 43 (bank) 30 (bank) 21 (bank) 15 (bank) 11 (bank)

This allows for the bankroll to be stretched seeming indefinitely...