Author Topic: Betting Selection Criteria  (Read 2291 times)

BlueAngel

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Betting Selection Criteria
« on: March 26, 2016, 11:24:36 PM »


Every gambler, no matter if he/she is professional or recreational, uses certain criteria in order to decide what he/she should bet.

There is a plethora of scientific and non scientific criteria, but let's begin with those which are not based on mathematics, statistics or physics.

"LUCKY NUMBERS"

Each individual considers different numbers as "lucky" according their perception, their belief doesn't necessary reflects reality.
Someone might consider number 19 as lucky because his birthday is on the particular day of the month, while another person may consider "lucky" number 7 because she is 7 years married.

Such beliefs are unorthodox because they are not related directly with the events of the game in any way.
I don't wish to analyze further about the unorthodox criteria because there are much more to be analyzed about the scientific criterias, so let's move on.

Mathematical/Statistical criterias

There is probability of every event and deviation from its respective probability, therefore a gambler might choose to back probability against deviation or to go with the deviation as long as it lasts.

In both cases what determines the winners is not which side they decide to be but the range of the variance, the degree of the deviation.
In my opinion there are not "bad" or "good" bets, there is only good time for everything!
In other words timing is everything, it's about the factor when which determines what to bet.

Those who back probability, call me "cold" sections, wish that the deviation won't last for long.
From the other hand, those who go with the flow are wishing that what they've already observed as "hot" to last a bit longer.

We don't know beforehand the degree of the deviation with absolute certainty.
Let's say I want to bet an EC which has already slept for 4 times in a row with a progression which can go up to 4 additional losses in a row, by the way this kind of bet is very simplistic and almost ancient, by doing so I'm becoming half-smart because I'm saving from possible losses but also I'm missing possible wins, thus I'm not improving my overall odds for becoming winner in the long term.

As most of you well know net profit comes from total wins - total losses, of course there are individual who prefer to live in denial and fool themselves that they are doing something significant.
Personally speaking, I'm not one of them and I'm very glad!

Now let's examine the principle of selecting "hot" sections, in order a specific selection to be hot must has already appeared more than its probability, by the time I'm starting to follow the particular bet section there are three possible directions which deviation could go;

1) Raise the degree of the deviant selection (Lead)

2) Maintain the degree of the deviant selection (Follow)

3) Decrease the degree of the deviant selection (Get out of the way)

If I was backing a "hot" number, what would be the worst of the above 3 scenarios?
Of course the third one, BUT even with the worst scenario defeat is not certain.

I'm already hearing you ask "How come?"

I'm going to give you an example which is very possible, let's say I'm betting a number which has already appeared 3 times within 37 spins and that number is hitting once during the next 37 spins, so it's frequency has been reduced from 3/37 to 1/37 and became an "average" number, yet again I didn't lose from that downturn.

That number could be stable in the next 37 cycle and repeating its frequency of 3/37, could also decrease to 2,1 or none hits, or even increase to 4,5 or even 6 hits within the next cycle of results.

There are no certainties but tendencies to follow, these tendencies could go either way and if the deviation is relatively mild a progression could succeed.

By the way, the progression is nothing in comparison with the selection, selection was and always will be superior to progressions.
Just consider progression as a mean to an end, a gun which if you are not able to use it properly could turn against you...imagine a progression as your bids for a property, this property begins from a low affordable price but when the owner realizes how badly you want to "buy" that property, he/she increases its cost more and more without being increased its value, that's why eventually you pay the price...

Let's talk about the betting criteria based on physics, the so called advantage gamblers attempt to predict what's more possible from physics perspective.
By using illegal devices and/or calculations in their mind are trying to calculate ball's and wheel's speed, scattering effect according the ball's size and composition and the shallowness of the wheel's pockets.

Well, under near perfect conditions and with excellent minds or very technologically advanced devices it's possible.
It's also possible to encounter a purple unicorn under your bed!:-D

Not to mention about the security measures for such illegal devices...
Just think, a single second of delay in calculations could result in exactly the opposite sector of the one presumably predicted, just the tiniest of destractions could cause an error and afterall the only thing a casino has to do is not allowing bets after the release of the ball, or even calling "no more bets soon enough".
If you think that's the best way to win in gambling, good luck!

Finally, I'd like to emphasize about the mistaken approach in the bet selection regarding the proximity of table's & wheel's layouts.
Believe me I've seen more results than you could ever imagine and let's say that when number 13 has been developed in a steady hot number, it's neighbour, number 14 on the table could be as cold as ice, means 0 freaking hits when 13 has 8 hits.
The exact same goes to the wheel's layout, number 3 hit 12 times, while 35 none!
Number 6 appeared 10 times while 34 appeared 0 times!

I've seen such examples so MANY times I could not even recall all of them by heart, I'm sure that if you check your own records for such incidents you would confirm what I've already said.
So forget about grouping numbers according their proximity in the wheel and table layout, numbers should not been considered as sections, sectors, reds, evens, lows...etc

Those sections have been artificially made by the casinos, and all of them can become hot or not because of each spun number and not vice versa.
To understand it better, just do the following, check and you will NEVER find a single EC which contains ALL hot numbers, the hot numbers belong in more than one sections, the best odds/payouts you can get is by betting straight up numbers.

1 unit on EC and betting for 37 consecutive spins = 18 units average return
1 unit on dozen/column and betting for 37 consecutive spins = 24 units average return
1 unit on sixline and betting for 37 consecutive spins = 30 units average return
1 unit on corner and betting for 37 consecutive spins = 32 units average return
1 unit on street and betting for 37 consecutive spins = 33 units average return
1 unit on split and betting for 37 consecutive spins = 34 units average return
1 unit on straight up and betting for 37 consecutive spins = 35 units average return

Where's that good ol' common sense...?!


 

kav

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2016, 04:35:44 AM »
Well, this is a nice post and I was with you till the last paragraph.

"the best odds/payouts you can get is by betting straight up numbers"
Yes, single numbers have better payouts, but this just in analogy to their worse probabilities to hit. So it seems rather balanced, offering no advantage over other bets.

As for hot numbers, theoretically they are randomly distributed.
So it is possible to have the hot numbers spread for example over the 3 dozens, but it is also possible that the 3rd dozen itself becomes hot either because it has the most hot numbers or because most of its numbers hit.
 

rotaman

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2016, 09:22:41 AM »
It's also possible to encounter a purple unicorn under your bed!:-D

It is?  :o

But I agree with you regarding hot numbers. I can't see any rationale for betting cold numbers, whether based on the layout or the wheel. Yes you can argue that all numbers are equally likely and randomly distributed but it just seems like common sense to bet on what's hitting the most often at the moment, even if you have no idea why those numbers are hitting more than others. And then there's the possibility that the wheel may be biased towards those numbers, in which case betting on cold numbers is a very bad idea.

If you look at outcomes over thousands of spins then you could make a case for betting on cold numbers just as much as hot numbers because random outcomes don't keep trending indefinitely. Any group of numbers will ebb and flow, but trying to anticipate when a group of numbers will start to flow rather than ebb is impossible because they can go out of whack for a long time and you might just be starting your attack at the beginning of a record-breaking cold streak. The flip side of betting on what's currently hot is that you could be caught in a whip-saw, but in my experience these are short-lived.

 

BlueAngel

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2016, 09:36:05 AM »
Quote
even if you have no idea why those numbers are hitting more than others.

I don't know and I don't care about the reason, all I care is the results.

If you see 4 hot numbers it doesn't mean that those are going to be hot forever!
Usually they are turning to cold in less than a hour, it's completely nonsense to think that the same numbers will be hot for a whole day, a week, a month and so on!

Numbers, sooner or later, are constantly changing from hot to cold and vice versa, but there are ALWAYS hot and cold numbers.
 

scepticus

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2016, 11:08:31 PM »
I am with you BA in thinking Bet Selection is superior but not with you in thinking betting adjacent numbers are to be avoided.I bet 2 groups each of 4 numbers which can be bet as 2 splits and so some  are adjacent and do well enough with them.
I think betting Hot numbers is preferable to betting Cold numbers but it is a matter of " when "   
 

Geoffrey

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2016, 11:21:54 PM »
when it comes to choose what i would prefer best, cold number or hot numbers selection. I'd say neither. I'll go for a split selection bet on the majority of numbers that lay in between. But i dont use that kind of play anymore
« Last Edit: March 28, 2016, 01:04:06 AM by Geoffrey »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2016, 01:59:49 PM »
I am with you BA in thinking Bet Selection is superior but not with you in thinking betting adjacent numbers are to be avoided.I bet 2 groups each of 4 numbers which can be bet as 2 splits and so some  are adjacent and do well enough with them.
I think betting Hot numbers is preferable to betting Cold numbers but it is a matter of " when "

You've misinterpreted me, I didn't wrote the word avoid, I said it's irrelevant to consider good bet selection a number which is cold just because it's next to another which is hot, just an example.

From my experience you could find out that 2 neighbouring numbers could be as night and day the one in comparison to the other, BUT this doesn't mean that never happens a small group of neighbouring numbers to hit more than their probability.
What I'm trying to say is that neighbouring grouping should not be a rule, it could or it couldn't be the case.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2016, 02:05:02 PM »
when it comes to choose what i would prefer best, cold number or hot numbers selection. I'd say neither. I'll go for a split selection bet on the majority of numbers that lay in between. But i dont use that kind of play anymore

I agree partially, it's good to select a small group of numbers with diversified characteristics because I believe the truth always lies somewhere in the middle...

But I don't agree with the majority as you said, betting many numbers can make your life harder sooner or later because you don't have flexibility in order to adjust to the ever changing flow of the game.
 

scepticus

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2016, 02:29:20 PM »
I am with you BA in thinking Bet Selection is superior but not with you in thinking betting adjacent numbers are to be avoided.I bet 2 groups each of 4 numbers which can be bet as 2 splits and so some  are adjacent and do well enough with them.
I think betting Hot numbers is preferable to betting Cold numbers but it is a matter of " when "

You've misinterpreted me, I didn't wrote the word avoid, I said it's irrelevant to consider good bet selection a number which is cold just because it's next to another which is hot, just an example.

From my experience you could find out that 2 neighbouring numbers could be as night and day the one in comparison to the other, BUT this doesn't mean that never happens a small group of neighbouring numbers to hit more than their probability.
What I'm trying to say is that neighbouring grouping should not be a rule, it could or it couldn't be the case.

So forget about grouping numbers according their proximity in the wheel and table layout, numbers should not been considered as sections, sectors, reds, evens, lows...etc
« Last Edit: March 28, 2016, 02:30:59 PM by scepticus »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2016, 02:38:02 PM »
I am with you BA in thinking Bet Selection is superior but not with you in thinking betting adjacent numbers are to be avoided.I bet 2 groups each of 4 numbers which can be bet as 2 splits and so some  are adjacent and do well enough with them.
I think betting Hot numbers is preferable to betting Cold numbers but it is a matter of " when "

You've misinterpreted me, I didn't wrote the word avoid, I said it's irrelevant to consider good bet selection a number which is cold just because it's next to another which is hot, just an example.

From my experience you could find out that 2 neighbouring numbers could be as night and day the one in comparison to the other, BUT this doesn't mean that never happens a small group of neighbouring numbers to hit more than their probability.
What I'm trying to say is that neighbouring grouping should not be a rule, it could or it couldn't be the case.

So forget about grouping numbers according their proximity in the wheel and table layout, numbers should not been considered as sections, sectors, reds, evens, lows...etc


Exactly, it's better to consider each number as an independent property from the rest.
 

scepticus

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #10 on: March 28, 2016, 02:45:16 PM »
I am with you BA in thinking Bet Selection is superior but not with you in thinking betting adjacent numbers are to be avoided.I bet 2 groups each of 4 numbers which can be bet as 2 splits and so some  are adjacent and do well enough with them.
I think betting Hot numbers is preferable to betting Cold numbers but it is a matter of " when "

You've misinterpreted me, I didn't wrote the word avoid, I said it's irrelevant to consider good bet selection a number which is cold just because it's next to another which is hot, just an example.

From my experience you could find out that 2 neighbouring numbers could be as night and day the one in comparison to the other, BUT this doesn't mean that never happens a small group of neighbouring numbers to hit more than their probability.
What I'm trying to say is that neighbouring grouping should not be a rule, it could or it couldn't be the case.

So forget about grouping numbers according their proximity in the wheel and table layout, numbers should not been considered as sections, sectors, reds, evens, lows...etc


Exactly, it's better to consider each number as an independent property from the rest.

now you misunderstand    ME  !
Those are YOUR words , not mine.
I said I use "  sections" of the table SUCCESSFULLY  ! so , naturally I don't agree with you !
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2016, 03:58:54 PM »
Before I start gaming , first I look on the stats of the last 50 numbers.Mostly there are 4  hot numbers The angle between the hot numbers is about 9 numbers. Perhaps this is caused by the 4 handles of the cilinder numbers.If 4 numbers  has not fallen in 100, 110, 120 and 125 spins , It is likely a corner or a 4 number bet has not fallen in 100 spins. The statistic expectation of a 4 number bet is about 12. This phenomenon is an extreme anomality.
 

scepticus

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #12 on: March 28, 2016, 04:50:29 PM »
Before I start gaming , first I look on the stats of the last 50 numbers.Mostly there are 4  hot numbers The angle between the hot numbers is about 9 numbers. Perhaps this is caused by the 4 handles of the cilinder numbers.If 4 numbers  has not fallen in 100, 110, 120 and 125 spins , It is likely a corner or a 4 number bet has not fallen in 100 spins. The statistic expectation of a 4 number bet is about 12. This phenomenon is an extreme anomality.
As ever, though, the question is " How can we make use of this information ? "
So, how do you make use of this information Dobbel ?
( I don't do You Tube  ! )
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #13 on: March 28, 2016, 05:39:50 PM »
If you knew that at least 18 different numbers will show up in every 37 spins set with 99.99% certainty, would this kind of information be exploitable??
 

kav

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Re: Betting Selection Criteria
« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2016, 09:04:44 PM »
If you knew that at least 18 different numbers will show up in every 37 spins set with 99.99% certainty, would this kind of information be exploitable??
Of course it will be exploitable.
Even 17 or 16 appearances would be exploitable if they were 99.99% certain. But they aren't.