Author Topic: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips  (Read 1837 times)

kav

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Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« on: March 23, 2016, 10:56:20 AM »
Let's say we have 35 chips bankroll and we play on European roulette wheel.

If we use our chips to bet in 35 numbers in one spin we have 94,5% chance of winning [ 1 - (2/37) ]
If we use our chips to bet 1 chip on one number for 35 spins, then our chance of winning is [ 1 - (36/37)35 ] which is equal to 1 - 0,38 = 62% chance of winning

So, what is the best way to use our chips? Please discuss!

This is another "roulette paradox".  Of course it is not a paradox really. Roulette is still an extremely well balanced game, it just looks strange when you look at the numbers.


 

scepticus

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2016, 11:25:33 AM »
Let's say we have 35 chips bankroll and we play on European roulette wheel.

If we use our chips to bet in 35 numbers in one spin we have 94,5% chance of winning [ 1 - (2/37) ]
If we use our chips to bet 1 chip on one number for 35 spins, then our chance of winning is [ 1 - (36/37)35 ] which is equal to 1 - 0,38 = 62% chance of winning

So, what is the best way to use our chips? Please discuss!

This is another "roulette paradox".  Of course it is not a paradox really. Roulette is still an extremely well balanced game, it just looks strange when you look at the numbers.
kav
I think the answer is " It depends ".
It depends on your risk profile.
It depends on whether you intend playing for only one spin or more than one spin.
I would bet one number for 35 spins " or prior win" because on a win I am more than likely to
show a better profit than betting 35 numbers for one spin.
Higher risk - Higher profit on a win.
Lower risk - Lower profit on a win.
Gambling is Gambling is Gambling !
 

Sainter

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2016, 08:35:22 PM »
But the expected returns (losses) will be the same

Bet 35 numbers, winning 1 unit 94.5945%  of the time while losing 35 units 5.45% giving an expected return of -0.945 units

Bet 1 number wins 35 units 2.7% and losses 1 unit 97.3%, giving an expected results of - 0.027 units, times 35 spins gives an expected return of -0.945 units.

 

kav

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2016, 08:36:53 PM »
Yes guys,

You are both very correct!
 

scepticus

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2016, 09:23:20 PM »
But the expected returns (losses) will be the same

Bet 35 numbers, winning 1 unit 94.5945%  of the time while losing 35 units 5.45% giving an expected return of -0.945 units

Bet 1 number wins 35 units 2.7% and losses 1 unit 97.3%, giving an expected results of - 0.027 units, times 35 spins gives an expected return of -0.945 units.
True Sainter but we  gamble that the EXPECTATION" will NOT occur when we are actually betting .
 

rotaman

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2016, 09:30:13 AM »
There are lots of ways you could do it. How about this?

A 5 step marty on an even chance has a (19/37)^5 chance of losing. If you lose all 5 bets you are down 31 units. Bet 1 unit on a number twice, then the remaining 2 units again on a number. There is a (36/37)^3 probability of losing these 3 bets. The chance of an overall win is 1 -  (19/37)^5 *  (36/37)^3 = 0.9671. Higher than the chance of winning a single bet on 35 numbers.

But again the expectation is the same.

Quote
True Sainter but we  gamble that the EXPECTATION" will NOT occur when we are actually betting .

But you gamble that the probability will occur when you are actually betting? The expectation and probability are both valid only in the long run, so I don't think you can say that one is valid and the other isn't, at least not if you want to be consistent.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2016, 09:33:54 AM by rotaman »
 

kav

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2016, 01:55:09 PM »
rotaman,
You took me by surprise!

What am I missing here?
If the probability to win a bet is 0.9671 [higher than when betting 35 numbers simultaneously]
And the possible profit higher than 1 unit (in your last bet) , then it seems that your method is indeed better than betting 35 numbers at once. What's the catch?
Because theoretically there are no better or worse bets.
 

rotaman

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2016, 09:01:41 AM »
What's the catch?
Because theoretically there are no better or worse bets.

The catch is the expectation is the same. There are no better or worse bets in regard to expectation, even though the probabilities are different.
 

Sputnik

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2016, 01:28:05 PM »
Why 35 and not 36 numbers?

There's a mathematical curiosity for having a 36-number layout coverage and yet win +1 unit on a hit:

How can it be?

Targetting #19 as the only number to leave open, the bet goes like this:

3 chips go to number 0
72 chips to low (Covers 1 to 18 )
48 chips to 3rd dozen (Covers 25 to 36)
16 chips to corner 20/24 (Covers 20-21-23-24)
4 chips to straight-up number 22

If any number other than 19 is spun, you win +1.
Or you can change the betting location and leave one other number open.

You need a table with "Le Partage" rule for this bet to work.




Testing the validity of this bet with Roulette Xtreme.

First you need to enable Le Partage:



Then proceed to test the winning bets:

At a straight-up win, we win 4 x 36 = 144 chips, minus 143 chips layed = +1



At the corner, we win 16 x 9 = 144 chips, we lost 143 chips layed = +1



At the dozen, we win 48 x 3 = 144 chips, taking in to account 143 chips layed = +1



At the even chance, we win 72 x 2 = 144 chips, subtracting 143 chips layed = +1



If Zero shows up, dealer returns us 108 chips as payout for it, then takes away losing chips: while from the 72 chips layed at low by "Le Partage" rule enabled at the even chances dealer takes 36 and we get 36 chips back. As we won 108 by zero + 36 chips back from low = 144 chips - 143 layed = +1 unit profit even when zero hits! Positively letting only 1 out of the 37 numbers as a loss, and winning +1 unit at 36 numbers.



It is important to notice at regular Roulette without Le partage, you have a net loss of 35 chips when zero hits so we really need this Le Partage splitting rule:



Of course, the downside is losing spin costs 143 chips. But for doing that bet your REALLY have to do next spin and want the very least numbers against, this "tricky bet" can do.

Also you can mathematically split all the bets in half to win +0.5 instead of +1... but the problem is the Zero. The dealer won't be too fond of you splitting a chip in two to bet 1 and a half on zero.

A liked trigger is to bet after 2 instances of the same number are spun. But we've all seen 3 in a row.
One other bet selection is to wait for all number to hit exept one and have the odds 36 against 1 sleeping number and be playing cycles.

« Last Edit: March 26, 2016, 01:31:03 PM by Sputnik »
 

rotaman

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2016, 01:44:35 PM »
Interesting. But Sputnik I think you should credit Victor with the idea and not let readers think it was yours.  ;)

betselection-cc/ math-statistics/cover-36-numbers-and-yet-win-1-unit-on-a-hit
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 09:24:07 PM by kav »
 

Bebediktus

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2016, 02:16:48 PM »
Why 35 and not 36 numbers?

There's a mathematical curiosity for having a 36-number layout coverage and yet win +1 unit on a hit:

That is typical mistake,  who not understand what is mathematic... Sputnik, better look for mistake.
Here is very strange, why such peoples ofer to play stupidities for others , why they himself them not play ?
I not remember who, but one in this forum claimed the same and i pointed him to mistake... now not passed half year  and Sputnik again about the same... :)
 

Sputnik

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2016, 03:15:19 PM »
 
Interesting. But Sputnik I think you should credit Victor with the idea and not let readers think it was yours.  ;)

Yes all credit goes to VLS or Victor, sorry for not mention that.

 
Why 35 and not 36 numbers?

There's a mathematical curiosity for having a 36-number layout coverage and yet win +1 unit on a hit:

That is typical mistake,  who not understand what is mathematic... Sputnik, better look for mistake.
Here is very strange, why such peoples ofer to play stupidities for others , why they himself them not play ?
I not remember who, but one in this forum claimed the same and i pointed him to mistake... now not passed half year  and Sputnik again about the same... :)

Well sometims member say stupid things and being stupid and have a hard time Spelling, just like you.
No one try to make any misstake, you just missundertand things.
There is no math or try to prova a HG.

Cheers
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 09:24:23 PM by kav »
 

kav

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Re: Quiz / Dilema : How to bet 35 units/chips
« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2016, 05:25:09 AM »
Great posts guys!

rotaman,
I don't speak about expectation.

If the probability to win a bet is 0.9671 [higher than when betting 35 numbers simultaneously]
And the possible profit higher than 1 unit (in your last bet) , then it seems that your method is indeed better than betting 35 numbers at once.
Or is it not? If it is not what is the downside?

That's my question.