Author Topic: sleeping dozen strategy?  (Read 3617 times)

Geoffrey

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sleeping dozen strategy?
« on: March 14, 2016, 12:10:02 PM »
had 2/3 profit sessions doing teh following

chose your starting bet size that is appropriate to your bankroll (as i pretty new, i stick with the 1 euro chips)

wait for a mild sleeper to apear in dozen section (at least 5 to 7 non shows) than start betting on that specific dozen. if you mis , than multiply your bet going form 1-2-3-4-5 if your playing 1 euro chips, or 10-20-30-40-50 if you play 10 euro chips. if it fails  after 5 turns, just get out accept loss. (could be indictation of a deep sleeper)

try again the day after.

25 euro profit when playing 1 euro is a realistic target. since you are playing 1 euro chips, your stop loss could maximum be 15 euro. this corresponce with a profit target of 5% and a stop loss of 3%

working fine over here last few days.

just have 50% +1 of your sessions in profit and you'll be fine



 

kav

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2016, 01:24:42 PM »
Hi Geoffrey,
This looks like a nice, simple and logical system.
Be ready for some losing sessions and look for the bigger picture.
This also reminds me of Palaistis approach, which is quite similar.
 

Geoffrey

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2016, 01:30:42 PM »
Hi Geoffrey,
This looks like a nice, simple and logical system.
Be ready for some losing sessions and look for the bigger picture.
This also reminds me of Palaistis approach, which is quite similar.

suggestions are always welcome :)
 

kav

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2016, 02:48:44 PM »
As far as I remember Palaistis waited for a dozen to sleep for 4 or 5 spins and then bet on that dozen 4 or 5 consecutive spins until it appeared.
I think he didn't use a progression.
Well, here's is his post: Palaistis Dozen system
 

Geoffrey

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2016, 03:34:38 PM »
thx for bringing that up, as you said, its quite similar from what i'"m doing. didn't know this kind of play was on the forum already.

One thing i will never do (or get into) tho is AP. yes its interessting and so on, but i'm morally against those kind of methods
 

kav

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2016, 04:00:38 PM »
Some of the "AP" methods are even illegal (roulette computers) and you would have a problem if caught.
Did you see Palaistis graph?
Anyway I do think sleeping dozens are interesting.
On tthe opposite I also believe that betting the 2 recent dozens with an up as you win progression has also merit :-) lol

 
« Last Edit: March 14, 2016, 04:04:19 PM by kav »
 

palestis

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2016, 09:50:36 PM »
As far as I remember Palaistis waited for a dozen to sleep for 4 or 5 spins and then bet on that dozen 4 or 5 consecutive spins until it appeared.
I think he didn't use a progression.
Well, here's is his post: Palaistis Dozen system
Yes I said that I am looking for a 4-5 spins no show of a dozen. That's if you are observing one roulette.
But if f you are making rounds in different tables, chances are you might find a dozen sleeping for 6 + spins. Whatever you come across that exceeds 4 spins,  qualifies as trigger.
It doesn't have to be set at 4.
To simply see the merits of this system, all you have to do read down numbers from a score card and observe what happens after you see a dozen missing 4 spins.
- Does it continue to sleep for over 8 spins too often?
- Does the missing dozen show up far more frequently than not in the next 4 spins?
- When it doesn't show up in 4 playable spins after a trigger, how many times does it fail to show up consecutively as new triggers develop?

 I post a picture that highlights the dangers of a long progression. (Wiesbaden March 3 2016).
At the very beginning of the score card the 1st dozen came after 16 spins no show.  (red square). That means that you'd have to use a 13 step progression after the 4 initial misses. 13 steps progression even for a dozen can be very hard on the B/R.
For the rest of the session, in all cases after 4 misses the dozen showed up within  the 4 playable spins, except one. 
18 hits and only one fail for the entire session.
If you study many sessions like this and you establish that the hits exceed the failures by an overwhelming majority, similar to the one I am showing, then you know you are on to something.
As long as you establish a specific progression, long enough to win most of the time, but short enough to avoid disasters, then you should be doing just fine.
Coupled with the fact that back to back (consecutive) failures are rare, any small increase in the starting chip in the next round, should recover whatever was lost in the previous trigger.
And if you have a huge B/R compared to the chip value you are betting, it would take at least a dozen consecutive failures to lose that B/R.
But this will never happen in the next trillion spins.
 
« Last Edit: March 15, 2016, 11:41:48 AM by palestis »
 

Geoffrey

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2016, 09:58:03 PM »
this strategy was what i did last week , haven't noticed it was on this forum already.

Now trying to figure out wich kind of progression works best with this way of playing.
 

Sputnik

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2016, 07:55:52 PM »
As a thought on the progression, if you lose a 1-1  3-3  9-9 progression,
we could go to a 3-3  9-9  27-27  for 7 or 8 wins and then drop back to 1-1  3-3  9-9 to recover the remaining units. 
If you lose within the 8 wins at 3-3 9-9 27-27 then you can move to a final progression of 9-9 27-27 81-81 for 8 times and then drop back down.  More risky, but a loss on  the 3rd set of bets should be pretty rare.

I assume you play once to win once when one dozen sleep after two dozen show four times in a row.

 

Geoffrey

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2016, 09:20:43 PM »
Thx sputnik for your suggestion, sure will take a look at it. it's working fine for now, but always looking to refine it. i'm actually searching which progression works best. And the definition of best depends on the type of gambler you are. I'm searching for something thats fine balanced when you take safe but effective into account.
 

kav

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2016, 09:51:12 PM »
Geoffrey,

I do agree with you that "the definition of best depends on the type of gambler you are".
Like in the stock market, your broker asks you what type of investor you are.
And there are various similarities between gambling and trading.

I like that you have a big picture approach. Too often I see people focusing on the details (of a system for example) yet missing the bigger picture.
 

Geoffrey

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2016, 07:19:41 PM »
Glad i found this site and forum, a lot a valuable info to read. And nice to read that article as i'm a day trader myself. Maybe thats a reason why i pick things up pretty quickly i dont know, but doing very well so far. Havent read all the articles yet, but i will in time. there's always something mentioned that could be of use.
 

kav

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2016, 07:50:54 PM »
I firmly believe there is no system that fits all players
There are different systems that may fit different profiles of roulette players.
I can give you various examples of really great systems that just are not for everyone.
 

Geoffrey

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2016, 08:07:35 PM »
we sure are on the same page conserning your latest statement. i believe the same. and its kinda logic to. otherwise there wont be as much as 100 types a play strategies around. that is why its so important to define what type of gambler you are. you gotta build around your way off playing within those bounderies otherwise you are donna hurt yourself in ways you dont want to. I really aprreciate your insides and the efforts you do around here.
 

kav

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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2016, 08:13:53 PM »
Yes, we are definitely on the same page.
One of the many criteria that define the player profile, except bankroll, risk tolerance etc. are also physical/mental requirements.

Take for example the Belgian approach which is a great approach imo.
And see how Belgian experienced it in real life:
Quote
After much thought at some point, he started his system with like $100 and very low denominations ($0.05 if I remember correctly). His point was to increase the base bet as his capital increased. He had tremendous determination. He played over 10 hours a day, every day for weeks.

The system produced profits, but as he gradually increased the base bet to like $10 then the sequence from hell came and he lost all his bankroll. This happened again and again. After much effort he multiplied his starting capital, only to be wiped out, at some point by an extreme sequence.

He was very near to the point of total nervous collapse. His wife was worried, but she supported him morally. In the end he succeeded. I don't remember the numbers exactly, but I think he managed to turn $100 to something like $2000, which is 20 times your initial total bankroll. Then he stopped and said he would never try this again. The mental, physical and nervous toll he had to pay was too much.
Now we see why a good system is not for everyone.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2016, 08:18:03 PM by kav »