### Author Topic: The long run...  (Read 5650 times)

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#### kav

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##### The long run...
« on: January 21, 2014, 01:31:08 PM »
[...] "Oh, and by the way, even if you could find a system that is profitable in the long run (3 mil spins) this does not guarantee its success in the short run (hundreds of spins) and if it is not successful in the short run, then it is useless. You are just looking in the wrong direction". [...]

Your opinion? Is the long term outcome overvalued? Should we focus more on short or medium term? None will live a thousand years or play 5mil. spins in his life anyway.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2014, 03:53:26 PM by kav »

#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: The long run...
« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2014, 11:21:27 PM »
Long run sequences are not interested. I agree ,a player plays only small sessions. The results of a large sample are predictable. The features of large samples are not those of small samples. This is a reasen,I reseurch sequences up to 250 spins. I have introduced the nano- and the macro-random row. In science we know the features of meterial changes extreme.Lateron I will explain  the results of my study.

#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: The long run...
« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2014, 02:44:54 PM »
What is a nano sampel?
The expectation of the profit of a flat bet system is 2.7% of the total bets. This is equal to the HE. The house edge is the negative profit expectation.
I made for the ECs and the dozens an Excel program of 550 spins.My conclusion is as follow.
From about 150 spins the percentage variates very less. From that point the result is predictable.
For the dozens is this point about 225 spins.
The largement of a nano session depends on the possibilities of the chance. For the numbersperhaps more than 100k spins.
See the graphs in the attachment

#### kav

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##### Re: The long run...
« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2014, 02:39:17 PM »
Very interesting

#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: The long run...
« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2014, 03:59:29 PM »
Here I will show you another diagrams.I have simulated a very simple EC system and computed the percentage of the profit or lost. As this percentage is permanent larger than -0%. the lon run has started. Long run is relative and depends on the kind of chance. For the EC about 150 spins.

#### kav

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##### Re: The long run...
« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2014, 02:03:44 AM »
I see what you mean.
Maybe a more safe "long run" could be the 200 spin period for the even chances.
As we know, for example, in 200 spins, one color cannot exceed 125 appearances and can not have less than 69 appearances. (rest being zero)
This may be a good starting point for a strategy.

#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: The long run...
« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2014, 08:39:17 AM »
The diagrams show where about the long run theory start.That is the reason that small (nano) samples has not the same features as large macro samples. Strategies use a lot of small sessions of the difference chances.

Study and analise small samples learn us the features for the strategies.The results of Long run test are predictable. The features or betting schemes are very useful for strategies.

The most criticle comments are based on long run results of systems.Strategies are very difficult to program.
Only by note the bets and the payouts of a session the result is visible.

#### trenpolino

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##### Re: The long run...
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2014, 11:26:51 AM »
Bonjour
je joue ma methode  sur dublin en demo depuis 3mois  je suis a 6000  ,3 sessions par jour

#### albalaha

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##### Re: The long run...
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2014, 04:51:34 PM »
No betselection remains stable, all the time. In one stretch, a win may stretch upto 10x to 15x of the mathematical expectancy. For example, an EC bet should hit once in two attempts(forget house edge here), it may stretch upto 30 spins, any moment. Similarly, we can have only 2-3 hits of an EC in say 50 spins, in extreme moments. These phenomena makes it impossible to form any MM that can beat random small sessions like 200 spins,with any progression. We need to accept that 200 spins are too small sample to understand the wild probabilities of this game.

#### kav

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