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Author Topic: The meaning of past spins  (Read 13833 times)

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kav

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The meaning of past spins
« on: February 29, 2016, 02:28:28 AM »
Previous spins do not affect the following spins. But they may be an indication.
For example if you see someone wearing a gold watch and driving a Rolls, it does not affect his probability of getting rich. It is an indication that he is probably rich.
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 03:06:32 PM by kav »


 

Reyth

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #1 on: February 29, 2016, 01:59:24 PM »
Even if we cannot objectively quantify when and how equal distribution will manifest, that doesn't change the fact that it exists as an objective force in roulette that must have its effect on every spin.  It is simply a natural law that will always be observed over prolonged trials.

Even though we can never say with 100% certainty that a streak will end at any particular point, that doesn't change the fact that successive streaks diminish, which is proof of equal distribution at work.  There are concrete demarcations for every default bet selection that have never been seen the game of roulette (even though they are theoretically possible) which is further proof of equal distribution at work and it is how one can say that they can obtain a "practical advantage" in the game of roulette.

Its better to deal with practical reality than theoretical fantasy.
 

kav

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #2 on: February 29, 2016, 02:59:37 PM »
Btw, according to really great astrologers and ancient writings, it is the same with astrology.
The planets do not affect you. They just symbolically describe the situation you are in, they are indicators.

I often feel that past spins are like X-Rays. Some can read them and some can not. But they do not affect anything.

To put it in another, more general way:
Observations or information do not affect things. Observations can give you an idea of the situation you are in. 
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 03:10:07 PM by kav »
 

Real

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #3 on: February 29, 2016, 04:46:00 PM »
Reyth,

If you believe that past spins in the random game of roulette have an effect on future spins, then you should make an attempt to logically explain what "force" is reaching from the past forward into the future to physically change the odds of winning.

However, past data can be useful to judge the fitness of the wheel.
 

Mike

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #4 on: February 29, 2016, 05:09:23 PM »
Even if we cannot objectively quantify when and how equal distribution will manifest, that doesn't change the fact that it exists as an objective force in roulette that must have its effect on every spin.  It is simply a natural law that will always be observed over prolonged trials.

The "force" is determined by the physical setup of the wheel. An unbiased wheel will over time "distribute" the ball into each pocket the same number of times; that's just physical symmetry at work.

But there is no connection between spins at all in the sense that past spins can "indicate" future spins.

The mistake is that people don't understand what independence means; they think it means that outcomes can "do what they like", and since it seems that they can't (for example, you never see 100 reds in row) then that must mean that outcomes are NOT independent after all and that past spins really do indicate future spins.

The logic is not flawed, but the error is in incorrectly defining the terms.
 

Dane

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #5 on: February 29, 2016, 05:49:14 PM »
Salvador Dali´s CLOCKS melting like Camembert cheese may be as Enlightening as
d´ALEMBERT.  The insects in Dali´s paintings must be trapped in Time too.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #6 on: February 29, 2016, 09:24:31 PM »
It does not matter which kind game you play, the move of the player is Always a reaction on what has happend before. The roulette is also a game. It is a normal behaviour that the rouletteplayer uses the results of the past. The football player does, the cartplayer does , why should a rouletteplayer doesnot?
 

Mike

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2016, 10:26:01 AM »
dobblesteen,

Where the ball lands on the wheel is not a function of what happened before, it's a function of the physics of the wheel/dealer. That's it. You can get information about the physics by looking at past spins, but past spins in themselves don't indicate anything about what's going to come up next.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2016, 10:41:09 AM »
Mike I am a retired engineer and teacher. I taught  mechanical and kinematic . I think you can not learn me more about the features of the roulettecilinder and the ball. I believe also in the laws and features of statistic results.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2016, 01:35:09 PM by Reyth »
 

kav

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2016, 07:43:14 PM »
Basically, the subject here is that even in our camp of "fallacious gamblers" I see that there are those who like R.D. Elisson, believe that past spins "affect" next spins and those who see past spins as indicators.
This difference may seem unimportant to the "non-believers", but I think it is worth mentioning.
 

Reyth

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2016, 08:42:54 PM »
Objective facts cannot be erased no matter how many times someone says they do not exist.  At certain times some people crack and will find themselves saying that no practical advantage can be gained.  Those with no heart will simply repeat themselves over and over regardless of the facts. 

Intellectual honesty is required for any true debate.  There is no reason to debate what is objectively true with people who do not care for the truth but for only what they themselves wish to believe.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2016, 08:53:37 PM by Reyth »
 

Mike

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2016, 11:01:43 AM »
Kav,

I do see the distinction you're trying to make between "affect" and "indicate".  But I think ultimately it's not very significant in this context. A few members do seem to admit that past spins don't "affect" future spins, but then go on to assert that they can "indicate" them. If you understand the meaning of statistical independence:

P(A|B) = P(A)

Then there really isn't much room for manoeuvre; there really isn't some clause or loophole in the definition which means that although past spins don't "affect" future spins, they really actually sorta kinda do if you squint a little bit and don't think too carefully.
 

Mike

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2016, 11:20:10 AM »
Reyth,

Good post, couldn't agree more. Streaks really and objectively DO diminish as their lengths increase, and equal distribution DOES occur (in the RATIO sense, NOT in the sense of absolute numbers equalizing).

It's also just as objectively true that past spins in themselves can't indicate, point to, predict, inform, or forecast future spins. This is just as evident as the fact that equal distribution occurs.

Both facts can be "proved" just by using common sense and understanding the "axioms" of the game.

On successive spins, the following is always true (for the GAME):

Axiom 1: Each spin is just as likely to produce one number as another. There's your equal distribution proved.
Axiom 2: All pockets are available. There's your independent spins proved.

So how do you square that circle?
 

kav

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2016, 12:27:39 PM »
Kav,

I do see the distinction you're trying to make between "affect" and "indicate".  But I think ultimately it's not very significant in this context. A few members do seem to admit that past spins don't "affect" future spins, but then go on to assert that they can "indicate" them. If you understand the meaning of statistical independence:

P(A|B) = P(A)

Then there really isn't much room for manoeuvre; there really isn't some clause or loophole in the definition which means that although past spins don't "affect" future spins, they really actually sorta kinda do if you squint a little bit and don't think too carefully.

I would like tell you that I have been a physicist by education. I don't say this to gain authority. I'm telling you this in order to convince you that I'm fully aware of the equations and the science you are referring to.

The thing however is a bit more complicated than this, if you care to look under the surface.
First of all, I will make a distinction that I have made before. Mathematics is a theoretical science, while physics for example is an empirical science.
To put it simply:
  • Math depends on some main theoretically constructed, undisputed axioms.
  • Physics depends on physical observation and testing and nothing is set in stone. (though it also uses math for calculations)
Now there is a strange thing with probability. It is between math and physics. The genesis of probability was a purely empirical one. In fact gambling played a major role in the development of probability. Then (as even today in physics) the mathematicians took over.

But we should never forget that probability is in its heart an empirical science, not a theoretical one. So any equation is not set in stone. It is true until disproved. Because there are no stones (axioms) in physics. Just to understand how deep and complicated this new science is I will mention (if you not already know) that scientists can not even agree in the interpretation of what probability is. Therefore there is not even a universally accepted definition of probability. There are different interpretations of the true meaning of probability, all supported with valid arguments.

Does this mean that past spins "affect" or indicate future spins?
NO.

I just want to shake a bit your (false) sense of security, based on mathematical equations. Just leave a door open. Hey! Scientists can not even agree what probability is :-)

I have written a post about why math can be an obstacle in roulette research. It is a short and - I hope - interesting, reading.

-----------------
And to put it more simply, in absolutely physical terms, is darn hard to prove that roulette spin outcomes are independent. If not for anything else, because the throwing point is dependent on the previous spin. But this is not my main argument.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2016, 12:39:16 PM by kav »
 

Reyth

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Re: The meaning of past spins
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2016, 01:35:19 PM »
Quote from: Dobble
I believe also in the laws and features of statistic results.

Me too! :D