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Author Topic: My view on the Martingale principle  (Read 4763 times)

dobbelsteen

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My view on the Martingale principle
« on: January 20, 2014, 09:30:29 PM »
I have studied the roulette for years. I simulate the roulette with an Excel RNG. The analyse of random rows have learned me alot.
I found very less about the Martingale system.
My first contribution is my view on the Martingale principle

.1 The Martingale principle.
On Wikipedia, you can find the explanation of the mathematical theory of the Martingale principle. At the roulette, websites are you warned for this principle.
The Martingale principle is mostly described for the ECs. After a loss, you double the bet before. As a roulette system, it is the only one that cannot lose. Every hit gives a profit of one unit.
The bet per step are: 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512etc. The sum of the bets is 2x the bet minus one.
The won percentage is 100%x 1/ the sum of the bets. The won percentage is always positive. The first step of a session starts with a won percentage of 100%. Every next step the percentage is the half of the percentage before. After 10 steps, the percentage is reduced to 0,195%. See the graph.
The player has no risk and the roulette cannot make a profit.
All casinos have taken a counter measure with the table limit. For the player, it is a kind of a stop-loss. In the Dutch casinos de table limit is 10 times the table minimum. This means the maximum loss of a session is 1023 units. Be continued.


 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: My view on the Martingale principle
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2014, 09:49:01 PM »
Here the graph
 
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kav

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Re: My view on the Martingale principle
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2014, 01:28:00 PM »
Hi dobbelsteen,

Very interesting issue you raise here! I also love the chart.
I'm looking forward to your next post. Be sure your efforts are not wasted. Serious roulette players are reading, hopefully your interesting post will motivate them to participate more actively.

Keep up the good work
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: My view on the Martingale principle
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2014, 11:40:38 AM »
Here the continuation.

2 The influence of the zero.
The zero is nor red or black. The zero is the contrary EC of the bet. Bet black the zero is red. The France roulette has a particular rule for the zero, the so-called single or double En Prison rule. After a zero the bet is divided by two. This feature is a very important advance for the France roulette. If you have the choice, never play the double zero roulette
In the Martingale system, the zero gives an extra profit. The maximum extra profit is, when the zero falls in the ninth step.
3 The Martingale system.
In the casino, you see very often, the player starts a Martingale session after 6 consecutive colours. The expectation is, in the next 6 spins the colour is changed.
A 12 spins sequence has a probability of once on 4096 spins. The risk is very low. The disadvantage is the possibilities are very rare.

A second Martingale system is to wager on one colour.
The expectation of a 10 steps Martingale wager is that in the next ten spins the colour changes. The risk of a loss is only 0,195%.
The third Martingale system is my
 S (hoe) S (hine) B (oy) system.
A 10 red sequence has the same probability as a random sequence. I wager a 10 random sequence shall not repeat. The risk is the same as the one colour system. The advantage is that after every hit you start with a new random sequence. You never have to wait for a new opportunity.
You have stroked against a 20-spin sequence like 20 consecutive red after a loss session.
I have programmed the SSB system in Excel. The program is also suitable for other experiments.
The graph shows the results of a 250-spin sample with 10-step progression. The average profit is 140 units.
The program shows the graphs of the bets and the profit per spin. It is very easy to various the numbers of steps. I use in my program 10 steps in connection with the table limit.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: My view on the Martingale principle
« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2014, 10:20:24 AM »
When you play a 6-steps session after a 6-spins row, you have to wager maximum 63 units to become one unit profit. The win percentage is only 1.59% in the worst case.
From another point of view, you wager a 12-spins row will not fall. You play in reality a 12-steps session with a bet scheme 0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-4-8-16-32. This sequence has a probability of once on two^12=4096. The risk for a loss is very little. With my SSB system, you have never to wait for an opportunity. See the graph.
I came in collision with the problem, you cannot see and open the attachments without login.

Next time I will try to put the pictures direct in my comment
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: My view on the Martingale principle
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2014, 02:28:54 PM »
For a quick understanding of probabilities ,the triangel of Blaise Pascal is an usefull tool.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: My view on the Martingale principle
« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2014, 02:44:55 PM »
Happy New Year. I hope the horse will make a lot of fortune.
 
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kav

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Re: My view on the Martingale principle
« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2014, 04:48:43 PM »
dobbelsteen,
I'm reading your posts with great interest. Please keep up the good work.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: My view on the Martingale principle
« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2014, 01:47:13 PM »
Most roulette games give a history sequence of 15 or 20 spins. I use the latest results of the numbers to make my decissions. The history board of internet casinos are mostly much smaller. This is a disadvantage for the strategic players.

A trigger is a deviation of the average expections.The triangel of BP learn us more about the expectations.

1  The ratio  Red/Black is one.
2  Every four spins  Red or black repeats.
3  Every eight spins red or Black repeats 3 times.
4  Every 16 spins    red or Black   repeats 4 times.

Such enuneration , you can make also for the other ECs, dozens and columns and sixlines. In a new threat i shall explain my analises of the different chances.
 
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