Betchain usa friendly 728x90

Author Topic: Can happened just by luck?!  (Read 3715 times)

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1435
  • Thanked: 195 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Can happened just by luck?!
« on: February 08, 2016, 06:59:59 PM »
Charles Deville Wells was the man who broke the bank multiple times within 11 hours of non stop gambling at Monte Carlo.
And as this was not enough, he did it again when he returned back, can this be just plain luck?

I think we understand that luck doesn't work this way, it could be luck with big profits IF there were very few bets with high stakes, but this was not the case as Charles Deville Wells had a bankroll of approximately 40,000 francs and left the casino with more than 11 millions!

Luck cannot be on your side for such extensive time, also there were reports for winning 17 out of 23 EC bets, winning on number 5 when hitted for 5 times in a row, not sure if all these was just luck but I think something is missing from this story.

Reported also that the casino paid detectives to find out if Charles Deville Wells was using illegal means to acquire such wealth but they didn't found anything like that.

I've read about his "pendulum" system on the "Monte Carlo anecdotes" but neither this explanation alone is satisfactory, a system like this could make you lose, let alone to win millions with a bankroll of thousands!

Till today remains a mystery, at least for me.
Has anyone a reasonable explanation??


 

Real

  • Fighting the war on absurdity one foolish idea at a time.
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1203
  • Thanked: 120 times
  • Gender: Female
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2016, 07:05:36 PM »
Like Jaggers, he was likely just playing a biased wheel.
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1435
  • Thanked: 195 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2016, 07:11:29 PM »
Like Jaggers, he was likely just playing a biased wheel.

Mike Jagger??

BTW, one of your followers on this forum with username Mike, is he Michael Shakleford aka lizard of odds??
 

Real

  • Fighting the war on absurdity one foolish idea at a time.
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1203
  • Thanked: 120 times
  • Gender: Female
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2016, 07:17:23 PM »
A different Mike
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1435
  • Thanked: 195 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2016, 07:18:57 PM »
 

TheGenner

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 46
  • Thanked: 9 times
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2016, 09:40:47 PM »
Wells did not really discuss this much until close to his death. He admitted it was all down to luck unlike Jagger who took advantage of biased wheels.
 

TheGenner

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 46
  • Thanked: 9 times
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2016, 09:50:17 PM »
Just to add about 'luck'....I have seen someone lose £60,000 in an afternoon betting on the e.c's when the maximum stake on them was £200 back in the late 80's. More recently, I know someone who won £3 million and the company had to issue a profits warning to it's shareholders. Luck (good or bad) can work both ways and who is to say when the good run or bad run will end.

http  ://www.birminghampost.co.uk/business/rich-list-2013-no28---3908174

I see you are not allowed to post links, so I just moved the :// along a few spaces.

cheers
« Last Edit: February 08, 2016, 10:02:34 PM by TheGenner »
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1435
  • Thanked: 195 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2016, 10:30:16 PM »
Just to add about 'luck'....I have seen someone lose £60,000 in an afternoon betting on the e.c's when the maximum stake on them was £200 back in the late 80's. More recently, I know someone who won £3 million and the company had to issue a profits warning to it's shareholders. Luck (good or bad) can work both ways and who is to say when the good run or bad run will end.

http  ://www.birminghampost.co.uk/business/rich-list-2013-no28---3908174

I see you are not allowed to post links, so I just moved the :// along a few spaces.

cheers

So a little luck can go a loooong way!:-)
 

weird

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 109
  • Thanked: 10 times
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2016, 07:39:52 AM »
Hi BA,
With respect.

I do not know anything about the 'pendulum',
But I think evryone here, must notice that,

based on the 'regression toward mean', theory,

Any chart of 'flatbet' of any 'system',

will show, up and down line.

The line will, show to N.East, or Eastward, or S.east.

BUT, one thing that is certain,

is, there will be 'WAVES".

There will never a straight line,
there always a "mild-waves", or 'violent-waves'..within the major wave.

The  MAJOR-line itself, will up and down, toward NE, or east, or SE.

Thus the pendulum, or any constantly winning strategy,
will take advantages of this 'up and down' waves.

Its like 'sell high, buy low', or take advantages of the rtm waves,
no matter whether, the overall-line may point upward, or downward.

Or if without chart, we could see that the profit, or rather losses,
will also up and down.

say in OVERSIMPLIFIED example,
if we bet flatbet, EC, we will see, that the losses will,
go down to, say, -9,-10,-11,-12, then -11,-10,-9,-8,-7,-6,-5, then down to, -6,-7,-8,-9,-10...and up and down, and up and down, and maybe up to positive, +1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10, then down to the  negative again....

Thus based on ECART extreme, we take RISK, that the profit/loss, will "turn"...

Just my 1cent view.

 

dobbelsteen

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1204
  • Thanked: 263 times
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2016, 08:58:34 AM »
Every system will end with a loss of 2,7% playing a long run sample.
A long time ago I saw a gambler win 1 M units in about a hour. He wagered the third dozen with the maximum table limit on all chances (numers, splis, corners, Streets and double Streets ). The dozen falled much more than the statistic expectation.
 The next day he lost his million.
Question ,how many units wagered and what is the payout of the hits.
 

Trilobite

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 299
  • Thanked: 98 times
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2016, 11:23:53 AM »
Every system will end with a loss of 2,7% playing a long run sample.

Not mine.
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1435
  • Thanked: 195 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #11 on: February 12, 2016, 01:25:44 PM »
Every system will end with a loss of 2,7% playing a long run sample.
A long time ago I saw a gambler win 1 M units in about a hour. He wagered the third dozen with the maximum table limit on all chances (numers, splis, corners, Streets and double Streets ). The dozen falled much more than the statistic expectation.
 The next day he lost his million.
Question ,how many units wagered and what is the payout of the hits.

If someone gambles with Martingale that the next spin would be to his favor, like YOU do, then the 2.7% negative expectation in long term will be reality, BUT not all of the players gambling like YOU do!
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1435
  • Thanked: 195 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2016, 01:43:11 PM »
Hi BA,
With respect.

I do not know anything about the 'pendulum',
But I think evryone here, must notice that,

based on the 'regression toward mean', theory,

Any chart of 'flatbet' of any 'system',

will show, up and down line.

The line will, show to N.East, or Eastward, or S.east.

BUT, one thing that is certain,

is, there will be 'WAVES".

There will never a straight line,
there always a "mild-waves", or 'violent-waves'..within the major wave.

The  MAJOR-line itself, will up and down, toward NE, or east, or SE.

Thus the pendulum, or any constantly winning strategy,
will take advantages of this 'up and down' waves.

Its like 'sell high, buy low', or take advantages of the rtm waves,
no matter whether, the overall-line may point upward, or downward.

Or if without chart, we could see that the profit, or rather losses,
will also up and down.

say in OVERSIMPLIFIED example,
if we bet flatbet, EC, we will see, that the losses will,
go down to, say, -9,-10,-11,-12, then -11,-10,-9,-8,-7,-6,-5, then down to, -6,-7,-8,-9,-10...and up and down, and up and down, and maybe up to positive, +1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10, then down to the  negative again....

Thus based on ECART extreme, we take RISK, that the profit/loss, will "turn"...

Just my 1cent view.

Theoretically this kind of system only loses by great deviations, as long as the wins vs losses ratio stays within a certain range it keeps on winning.
But great deviations do happen from time to time and then it loses much more than it wins.

His range was 10, a deviation of equal or longer degree will be the downfall, my conclusion is that even if you expand the range to 15,20,25...etc you are minimizing the possibility of losing but increasing the cost of loss, this proportion doesn't change.
 

Real

  • Fighting the war on absurdity one foolish idea at a time.
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1203
  • Thanked: 120 times
  • Gender: Female
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2016, 04:40:17 PM »
Overtime the house edge become a much larger player than variance/deviation. 
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1435
  • Thanked: 195 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: Can happened just by luck?!
« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2016, 05:05:45 PM »
Overtime the house edge become a much larger player than variance/deviation.

If this was true it must, the ''mother'' variance and her ''child'' deviation, cease to influence outcomes.
But of corse variance and HE never cease to be an undetachable part of the game.

They are permanent forces at work, always active like gravity.
Whether you understand or not gravity and its effects it doesn't matter, it doesn't change and/or stop.

The point is IF and HOW you could take advantage of such phenomena.