Author Topic: My Thoughts On The Paroli  (Read 3351 times)

Reyth

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My Thoughts On The Paroli
« on: February 02, 2016, 07:32:02 AM »
Hey!

I am a newb when it comes to the Paroli but I thought I would weigh in with what I have learned so far,

1) The textbook Paroli has it wrong on two major fronts:

1A) Do NOT double your bets every time, instead add one unit with every win and always go back to one unit upon a single loss; this will create a bank of profit that will accrue as you risk only "the house's money" (starting with your third succcessful bet).  Doubling your bets throws your profit away at ridiculous odds favoring the house, unnecessarily.

1B) Do NOT stop betting on a streak EVER!  The only purpose of the Paroli is to find streaks and MAKE THEM PAY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE!  Otherwise the casino nickels and dimes you to death and you never get any real profit.

2) I always bet the OPPOSITE of the streak; everyone knows that the longer a streak goes, the less chance there is of it continuing, so betting for it to break is the better deal (SEE #3).

3) I always want to keep the odds in my favor as much as possible with every bet.  Therefore, I bet ALL THREE EC's.  It becomes easy to visually spot each of the EC's the same as black/red and I always bet for the break of the streak, betting the longest streak available.

4) If I miss a bet at any point, I stay on the EC that missed until the streak breaks and then reanalyze all EC's for the longest streak available for bet.

5) There are occasions when all EC's are in a state of chop such as the following sequence:

12 29

which is Low/High, Red/Black &  Even/Odd

If all EC's are in a state of chop I DO NOT BET!

Here are examples of streaks:

12 27 -- RED/RED (bet BLACK)

2 26 -- EVEN/EVEN (bet ODD)

18 11 -- LOW/LOW (bet HIGH)



So, there is everything I have learned so far in a nutshell.  I haven't read this info anywhere before but I did learn the +1 banking from a commodities trader on YouTube; the rest I have figured out myself.

I think if you follow this you will have the greatest chance of hitting non-stop wins than with any other method.

Happy WIN hunting!

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3py4ev_capture-tue-feb-02-01-56-03_videogames
« Last Edit: February 02, 2016, 09:49:47 PM by Reyth »


 
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Reyth

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2016, 09:25:25 PM »
I think the Paroli works great except for prolonged streaks of inability to reach 3 consecutive wins which creates a situation where it cannot make enough on the streaks it finally gets to dig itself out; in other words, it gets bogged down.

To remedy this, I have thought of combining the FHG with the Paroli so it has the extra punch to hit new highs over time.

So simply count the spins and every 37 spins if not in profit, double the unit amount.  So far it seems to be working as intended...



Here I was 1 2 4 8 16 32 into the progression when my Paroli hit for 6 times in a row for a new all time high and a gain of 72 units. 

The Paroli failed (at level 1 in the progression) on the 7th bet where you can see a bet for black was indicated.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2016, 11:24:00 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2016, 11:31:16 AM »
In combining the FHG with the Paroli, the key question is, if you knew that in X number of spins you would receive a win streak of Y length, how much damage could you do with the Paroli?

So that's the question, how many sets of 37 spins does it take to generate X number of wins in a row, where X is everything from 6-25.

Still, 37 spins might be too large of a range to work with, requiring too many missed attempts.  What about shorter sequences, like 19 or 18?
 

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2016, 11:37:41 AM »
In combining the FHG with the Paroli, the key question is, if you knew that in X number of spins you would receive a win streak of Y length, how much damage could you do with the Paroli?

So that's the question, how many sets of 37 spins does it take to generate X number of wins in a row, where X is everything from 6-25.

Still, 37 spins might be too large of a range to work with, requiring too many missed attempts.  What about shorter sequences, like 19 or 18?

Multiply the number of consecutive negative cycles and there you have your winning streak.
 

Reyth

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2016, 12:00:15 PM »
In combining the FHG with the Paroli, the key question is, if you knew that in X number of spins you would receive a win streak of Y length, how much damage could you do with the Paroli?

So that's the question, how many sets of 37 spins does it take to generate X number of wins in a row, where X is everything from 6-25.

Still, 37 spins might be too large of a range to work with, requiring too many missed attempts.  What about shorter sequences, like 19 or 18?

Multiply the number of consecutive negative cycles and there you have your winning streak.

WHOAH!  Impressive!  That's in fact what the comp came up with, 52 series of 37.  9*6=54, so that was a very close estimate and it shows that the Paroli is quite dangerous with this betting method because that winning cluster is not guaranteed.  I wouldn't of guessed it would of been as bad as 52 though...
 

Reyth

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2016, 10:47:44 PM »
So to reduce variance how about the Paroli for two dozen?

1 1 = +1   +1    -2
2 2 = +2   +3    -3
3 3 = +3   +6    -3
4 4 = +4   +10  -2

5 5 = +5   +15  +0 <==== BREAK EVEN

============
CASINO'S MONEY
============
6 6 = +6   +21
etc.

I just played this for like 2 minutes and went up 42 units after a loss finally hit...

« Last Edit: February 03, 2016, 11:06:14 PM by Reyth »
 
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Reyth

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2016, 07:39:47 PM »

Repeats in a row with 2 dozen

0)5622496  .35    -2
1)3646332  .23    -3
2)2365268  .15    -3
3)1534046  .10    -2
=================
4)994556    .06   +0
=================
5)646004   .04    +9
6)418607   .03    +14
7)271213
8)176320
9)114442
10)73728
11)48136
12)31329
13)19865
14)13392
15)8489
16)5594
17)3517
18)2382
19)1519
20)932
21)666
22)425
23)273
24)150
25)109
26)84
27)48
28)32
29)11
30)13
31)3
32)6
33)10
34)3

These numbers reflect the number of repeats in 16M spins.  0 represents a miss.

Profit begins at the 6th consecutive win for 21 units.  So maybe a strategy is to wait until down a total of 42 units and then raise the bet amount by 1 unit, kind of like the D'Alembert:

Bet 1 unit until down 42 units
2/84,3/126,4/168,5/210,6/252,7/294,8/336,9/378,10/420,11/462,12/504,13/546
14/588,15/630,16/672,17/714,18/756,19/798,20/840,21/882,22/924,23/966

I think working with the Paroli within a framework is very powerful.  I think that the framework should encompass 2000 spins, because the worst series without at least 6 wins in a row is 1924 spins.

The session outcomes are:

1) Lose 2 units (45%)
2) Lose 3 units (38%)
3) Lose 0 units (6%)
4) Win 9-595 units (11%)

Also testing a session counting method.  Any loss counts as a completed session.  After 10 completed sessions, raise the betting amount 1 unit.  Lower the betting amount 1 unit & reset the session counter when 6 wins in a row is achieved (i.e. a profitable session).
« Last Edit: February 20, 2016, 11:01:36 PM by Reyth »
 
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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2016, 07:48:33 PM »
I would like only to comment on playing all 3 EC.
Yes, this is a good idea. It multiplies your time by 3 instead of playing only 1 EC.
It is also hard on calculations. You must remain composed and coldblooded.
As a bonus, when betting all 3 EC you may be able to place some safety bets when the bets on EC are high.

Say you bet 6 chips on all Low, Odd, Black.
Then it is not a bad idea to put a chip on 30, 32, 34 and 36 (4 chips) or a couple chips in the 3rd dozen.
When I play high stakes on all 3 EC I always support them with some safety bets.
 

Reyth

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2016, 12:54:42 PM »


Just went up 116 units after following the 42 framework.  Went down to level 4, down 170+ units and got like 10 hits or more in a row.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2016, 09:16:08 AM »
For the paroli system of the ECs the triangle of Blaise Pascal is a very valid tool.
A very long time ago i have played this system very often .
I took my profit after a streak of 4 hits.
I started the wagering when the display of 20 spins did not show a streak of 4 hits.
 
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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2016, 09:37:04 AM »
I started the wagering when the display of 20 spins did not show a streak of 4 hits.

So you start betting based on what's occured in the past?
 

Reyth

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2016, 12:49:34 PM »
Using the framework but back to an EC only, I went up 2400 units (10 in a row) after going down 55% of my bank, to over double it.

This has gotten me thinking about maximizing the effectiveness of the framework to delay as long as possible until that massive up swing should hit. 

The following method suggests itself and seems to be working well:

1) Spin until your favorite EC hits
2) Bet 2 units on that EC
3) Raise 1 unit on each hit until it misses
4) Back to spinning without betting until your favorite EC hits again

Since the Paroli makes its real profit with the major streaks (4 and above), missing a single hit at only 1 unit will not make any major difference but instead will save money against the incessant losing spins and the zero.

11 streaks in a row is 405/1000000 or 1 in 2469 attempts (+53)
10 streaks in a row is 1532/1900000 or 1 in 1240 attempts (+43)
9 streaks in a row is 4024/2500000 or 1 in 621 attempts   (+34)
8 streaks in a row is 9929 /3000000 or 1 in 302 attempts  (+26)
7 streaks in a row is 24556/3600000 or 1 in 147 attempts (+19)
6 streaks in a row is 56000/4000000 or 1 in 71 attempts   (+16)
5 streaks in a row is 143846/5000000 or 1 in 35 attempts (+8)
4 streaks in a row is 328377/5500000 or 1 in 17 attempts (+4)
3 streaks in a row is 729470/6000000 or 1 in 8 attempts   (+1) <=== what do I spy with my little eye?
2 streak in a row is 1624262/6500000 or 1 in 4 attempts   (-1)

1 Unit Expectation

L1(-2) L2(-2) L3(-2) W4()
L5(-2) L6(-2) L7(-2) W8() W9()
L10(-2) L11(-2) W12()
L13(-2) L14(-2) L15(-2) W16() W17()
L18(-2) L19(-2) W20()
L21(-2) L22(-2) L23(-2) W24() W25()
L26(-2) L27(-2) W28()
L29(-2) L30(-2) L31(-2) W32() W33() W34() W35()

Paroli Hack Method

This method is based on sound roulette hacking principles that are normally blocked by the casino table limits but here there is no such concern; at least not yet in the testing thus far.

Using the method described above (steps 1-4), when you fulfill step 1 (the EC hits), calculate ([DEBT]+1)+2 and bet 1/2 of this amount.  If it misses start over but if it hits bet your first bet PLUS 1/2 of your first bet.  If it misses start over but if it hits you are guaranteed to be at a new all time high.  Of course keep on raising the unit amount which is now (PROFIT-1) until you finally lose.

2.....-2
2.....-4(2)
=================
3.....-7
5.....-12
7.....-19(5)
=================
11.....-30
16.....-46
24.....-70[8] <=== EXPECTATION
=================
36.....-106
54.....-160
81.....-241(11)
=================
122.....-363
184.....-547
275.....-822(14)
=================
412.....-1234
618.....-1852
927.....-2779(17)
=================
1391.....-4170
2085.....-6255
3130.....-9385(20)
=================
4694.....-14079
7041.....-21120
10561.....-31681(23)
==================
15842.....-47523
23763.....-71286(25)
==================

The reasoning behind this is that a profitable bet sequence (3 in a row) is expected to occur once every 8 tries and it seems like it occurs more often than that.  Besides this, it is also based on "misdirection" where we are aiming for the lowest payout possible (only 2 bet hits in a row) but meanwhile face odds for as many as 23 bet hits in a row!  That is exciting and especially because our trigger is so accessible.

I haven't put raster beam to pixel on this yet but it all depends on how bad variance can get with this vs. the bankroll...

I think the worst it can be expected to get is between 124 and 101 straight misses; this is based on the 12% chance of a hit which is the equivalent of 4 or 5 bet numbers.  It seems to hit so often though, I wonder if this is a miscalculation somehow...  Yes it now occurs to me that the correct answer is found here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=476.msg5469#msg5469

Because all we are really looking for is 2 EC's in a row.  This means we need a bankroll large enough to handle 55 consecutive misses which actually sounds like quite a tall order to fill... 

The above progression is a full 30 bets shy of the required 54 successive loss events which would require a trigger of 30 successive loss events to bet successfully... So the rule would be that any time any EC has 30 successive loss events (no 3 hits in a row) the above progression can be used to generate an expected profit.  So the software here would monitor all 6 EC's; each time they hit but result in less than 3 in a row, the counter is advanced.  Once a counter reaches 30, its time to bet the Paroli!

The question is how common is this 30 successive loss event trigger?  I will find out soon...


NOTE:  Yes of course, this is a raising loop tied 100% to the bankroll which means certain death once variance gets a hold of it and yes it does.... >.<
« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 09:25:57 PM by Reyth »
 
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scepticus

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2016, 11:47:41 PM »
I would like only to comment on playing all 3 EC.
Yes, this is a good idea. It multiplies your time by 3 instead of playing only 1 EC.
It is also hard on calculations. You must remain composed and coldblooded.
As a bonus, when betting all 3 EC you may be able to place some safety bets when the bets on EC are high.

Say you bet 6 chips on all Low, Odd, Black.
Then it is not a bad idea to put a chip on 30, 32, 34 and 36 (4 chips) or a couple chips in the 3rd dozen.
When I play high stakes on all 3 EC I always support them with some safety bets.

I think it best here , kav. to bet one point on each of the 2 DS  in the third dozen as a saver for your  Low-Black Odd. As you have pointed out the 30-32-34-36 are the exact opposite of Low Black Odds- and how many times does the opposite  of what you bet happen ? Or one of it's neighbours !. 
 

Reyth

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2016, 11:25:45 AM »
Even though I am sure everyone knows about this, I think this might be the best application of the EC Paroli concept that I have yet found. 

It seems to pay us even when the full streak sequence doesn't kick in. 

It capitalizes on streaks just as the standard Paroli BUT it ALSO capitalizes on streaks that are interrupted by chop, to then continue -- the normal Paroli fails badly here!  It can handle chop of 1 time up to 4 times in a row (IE B RRRR BBB etc) and still be in the progression.

Here is the method:

This system is pretty easy to implement and you just have to remember the various steps, what their incremental quota is and when to go up or down.

Once you get the gist of it, you'll also understand the mathematical thinking behind it.

Charles Guetting was a french mathematician who apparently got rich at Montecarlo years ago using this.

Well...we haven't gotten rich using it but have not done too badly either.

And since we started using it we have kissed Martingale, Labouchere and D'Alembert goodbye.

Being a REAL mathematician, Guetting did his sums and concluded that if we're going to increment progressively, first we have to get some fire under our ass, and then keep burning.
But if the fire goes out, we've got enough wood to stay warm.

Here's how it works.
First off, digest the following table and then forget it:

First Level =            1 unit
Second Level =   1.5   /   2  /   3   units
Third Level =         4    /   6   /   8    units
Fourth Level =    10   /   15   /   20   units

This was Guetting's original master plan.

But what is 1.5 of a unit ?
Good question and you must have taken Greek literature at collegel if you're asking.

Ok, say you have beans and don't want to cut any in half...how do you get 1.5 of any value of beans ?

You start with 2 beans and make that your 1 unit value so 1.5 of 2 beans (one and a half of two) is three beans.
Got it ?

Basically we've doubled Guetting's original table values above to get playable and understandable numbers for us simple folk.

To simplify your calculator fingerwork, here's the resulting table in the logical uncut bean units:

First level =         2 units
Second level =   3  /   4 /   6  units
Third level =        8   /   12   /   16   units
Fourth Level =    20   /   30   /   40   units

We suggest you write this down in any way that you can associate with it and remember it at the real table.
If you smoke, write it on the back of your cigatette box.
If you don't smoke - pretend you do.

The levels might be considered as gears.
If you progress in Level 2 from 3 mph to 4 mph and then to 6 mph, you change gears up to Level 3 and go to 8 mph.... etc.

The mechanism:
This system is applied to even outside bets and we'll take red and black as our primary example.

The logic is as follows:
After TWO consecutive wins on one unit in any level - you go up to the next higher unit IN THAT LEVEL.
After the last unit in any level has won twice you go up one level to the first unit of that new level.

If you're betting a unit in any level for the first time and lose, you go back to jail and to the first unit in the previous level.

If you've won on one unit in any level the first time but lose on the second bet on that same unit - you repeat the bet starting again from that same unit since one win is cancelled by a loss of the same bet.

Let's give it a go.

Here's the table again:
First level =            2 unit
Second level =    3  /   4 /   6  units
Third level =         8   /   12   /   16   units
Fourth Level =    20   /   30   /   40   units

You place 2 chips on red.
If you win - good for you and bet 2 units again on red.
If you lose - bad for you AND START OVER AGAIN betting 2 units once more on red.

If you keep losing, keep betting two units. FOREVER.
Or until the ambulance arrives.

This means if you lose 10 times in a row on red, you have only bet 2 chips every time and lost 20 units.
This is what makes the sistem affordable but wait till you add our 'Jump the Tram' variant.

Getting back to winning:
If you win on the first bet with 2 chips, you repeat it with 2 chips again because you repeat every unit bet of every level once it has won.

Here's a plausible sequence:
And here's the table again for your convenience:
First level =            2 unit
Second level =     3  /   4 /   6  units
Third level =         8   /   12   /   16   units
Fourth Level =    20   /   30   /   40   units

(first and only unit in level 1)
2 = win = gain 2
2 = win = gain 4

(next level - level 2 - unit 1)
3 = win = gain 7
3 = win = gain 10

(still level 2 - unit 2)
4 = win = gain 14
4 = win = gain 18

(still level 2 - unit 3)
6 = win = gain 24
6 = win = gain 30

You've now won in 8 consecutive
spins and have gained 30 units.

Just to recap:
Everytime you win with one unit, you repeat it once again, and if you win a second time proceed to the next unit in that level.
If you've completed all units in one level you go up to the first unit in the next new level and continue as before,

If we had been playing the standard 'Double or Die' suicide progression, (2,4,8 etc) we'd only have 2 x 8 = 16 chips because after every win we'd go back to starters with the initial bet of 2.

With Guetting, after 8 consecutive wins we have 30 units and
this is the first interesting point on dear old Guetting's contribution to mankind.

It get's even better since Guetting had an escape plan.

If you haven't wondered up till now about what happens when we lose, then you really did take Greek at college....

What do you do after a loss, or two losses ?
Or worse still - a series of losses ?

This is where the levels come into play.

Losing:
As already explained, if you lose on the first time on any unit, you go back to the first unit of the previous level. If in level 1 you stay on unit 1 all the time in case of repetitive losses.
If you lose on the second bet of a unit - then you start again from that same unit since one loss cancels out one win.

But if we continue to lose.....several times in a row.....

Here's the same series as before:

(first and only unit in level 1)
2 = win = gain 2
2 = win = gain 4

(next level - level 2 - unit 1)
3 = win = gain 7
3 = win = gain 10

(still level 2 - unit 2)
4 = win = gain 14
4 = win = gain 18

(still level 2 - unit 3)
6 = win = gain 24
6 = win = gain 30

and then on the ninth spin we get a losing streak....

On the ninth spin you should have betted: 8

Here's the table again:
First level =            2 unit
Second level =     3  /   4 /   6  units
Third level =         8   /   12   /   16   units
Fourth Level =    20   /   30   /   40   units

If you lose on the ninth bet then you've still got a gain of 22 units ( 30 - 8 =22).
What do we do now ?
We regress from the third level [8] back to the first unit in level nr. 2 and this is unit 3.

Here's the table again:
First level =            2 unit
Second level =     3  /   4 /   6  units
Third level =         8   /   12   /   16   units
Fourth Level =    20   /   30   /   40   units

If we lose again, this means we have 22 -3 = 19 and
we again regress to the first unit in the preceeding and lower level.

In this case it's Level nr. 1 and the 2 unit bet.
If we continue to lose we continue to bet 2 units - ALL the time.

If for example we won 8 times in a row and then lost 9 times in a row, all we have gained is 5 units.
Was it worth it ?







Basically, if you really try Guetting AND our 'Jump the Tram' variation you'll find that
it's a great system if you get lots of sequences of any outside bet ( colour in our exmples).
And believe us - this happens.

If you've understood the Guetting system plus our 'Jump the Tram' variation
on outside(even odds) bet systems, then you can imagine what could happen if
you get a whole sequence of full repetitive series -
say, 6 blacks, 7 reds, 10 blacks, 1 red, 6 blacks, 3 reds, 10 blacks, 12 reds etc.
You'll be laughing all the way back to the hotel.

But bear in mind that any of these variations depend a lot on
the sway of the wheel and that it could get pretty boring going up to
being +10, then -1, then +5, then -8, then +12, and after two hours you're +1.

But if you thought that not throwing money away at the Roulette table was
supposed to be exciting...well... we suggest you throw your money away
... if it's excitement you want.

That's what keeps most losers going is the excitement.
The boredom and methodology factor is why most people don't play systems.

But believe us:
Every time we leave a Casino with even 1 unit plus
after 6 hours of Roulette.... we consider ourselves winners.


Btw the "jump the tram" variation is switching from one EC to the opposite after 2 succesive losses.  Somehow I think Guet would be turning over in his grave about this, which is why I haven't included it here.

I just "feel" somehow that this progression can be combined with some other method to provide a very powerful combination but I just don't have any ideas yet...

Check that.  One idea that has just occurred to me is to write a softwares that will monitor all 3 EC's and implement the Guet on all 3 simultaneously.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 12:13:56 PM by Reyth »
 
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ianpbh

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Re: My Thoughts On The Paroli
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2016, 12:23:56 PM »
May I correct your spelling ?

You spelt it "Guetting" perhaps it is better spelt "Genius"

 
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