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Author Topic: Spread betting  (Read 2816 times)

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BlueAngel

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Spread betting
« on: February 01, 2016, 05:17:18 PM »

Betting straight up numbers is like spread betting on sports, from the time you decide to bet a number its respective payout starts to fade away while time passes by without a win.

While the net profit gradually decreases after each successive bet, the probability isn't changing.
For example let's say that if probability was increased after each and every successive miss then we would only have to wait for the last absent number.

The last number which has not appeared while we observe results would appear within 37 spins after the before last number has came, but this is far from truth.
The question is why, why a number hits twice in a row while another doesn't hit for 600 spins??

Also the same number which one day missed for long time the next day could be one from the hottest numbers, it's quite paradox if you consider that, theoreticaly at least, all numbers have the same probability to hit.

Shouldn't this probability theory being reflected on the results?
What is the underlying reason which causes great deviations and instability on the results?

If your answer is variance, then my new question is what causes variance??
If your answer is randomness then what's the origin and causation of randomness??

No one would ever get certain answers regarding this matter because it's not like asking what's the sum of 1+1.
I believe in roulette like in almost every other aspect of life timing is essential...
If we were to follow a specific number till it hits, we could realize that this number has disappeared but only when it's already late!

If any given number, for any reason, doesn't hit within a fixed number of spins why not to replace it with another?
For example wouldn't be more reasonable to bet the hottest number of any given cycle of 37 spins?
By saying hottest I mean the number with the most hits within a fixed number of spins, the hottest is very difficult to turn into frozen because the cooling down effect happens gradually and not suddenly.

It's difficult for a number to disappear during the next cycle when on the previous has appeared more than any other, but it's not impossible.
Most likely it will hit again at least once, that's what I call gradual cooling down effect, what is hot as fire cannot become ice immediately.

So let's say I select the hottest and doesn't hit within the next cycle of 37 spins, how many times do you think the hottest numbers could turn suddenly in cold??
Another important fact for numbers with 3+ hits within 37 spins is the gaps comparison from one hit to the next...
If for example the last gap is longer than the previous perhaps means that the particular number starts to fade away...on the contrary if the last gap is shorter than the previous probably is a positive indication.

Gaps spreading between hits could be used as a filter for the hottest numbers, besides why would someone want to bet more than one number when with every result only one number wins??
The payout of straight up numbers provides greater flexibility in time, the more space you cover around the wheel and/or table layout with your bets, the less time you have before a win.

Just remember, given the time roulette can and it will produce any result, that said the very next spin could never provide certainty for a win, even if you bet too many numbers.
But the degree of certainty increases as the time expands, the more the time you wait for a certain outcome, the better it's probability.


 

Real

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Re: Spread betting
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2016, 05:54:44 PM »

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The question is why, why a number hits twice in a row while another doesn't hit for 600 spins??

Also the same number which one day missed for long time the next day could be one from the hottest numbers, it's quite paradox if you consider that, theoreticaly at least, all numbers have the same probability to hit.-Blue Angel

It's because of variance.  Variance is basically your "luck".  Probability and Variance = What may happen.  Think of variance as being the square root of the number of trials.  In order to account for what variance may do 99% of the time use (3 x the square root of the number of spins).

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Shouldn't this probability theory being reflected on the results?-Blue Angel
It is, you just don't comprehend it.  If you did, then you wouldn't be toiling around with systems based on the layout.
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What is the underlying reason which causes great deviations and instability on the results?-Blue Angel

Again, variance.  It's described above.
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If your answer is variance, then my new question is what causes variance??-Blue Angel
The degrees of freedom/the number of possible outcomes.
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If your answer is randomness then what's the origin and causation of randomness??
Again, the degrees of freedom/the number of possible outcomes.  By the way, the only limit to variance is really the size of the sample.  For example, you can't get four reds in a row if there are only three spins.

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No one would ever get certain answers regarding this matter because it's not like asking what's the sum of 1+1.
I believe in roulette like in almost every other aspect of life timing is essential...-Blue Angel

I've given you the answers above.  Why haven't you read more on the history of the game?  Why don't you trust what's written down by people like Dr. Thorp?

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If any given number, for any reason, doesn't hit within a fixed number of spins why not to replace it with another?
In the random game, it doesn't matter.  However in the live game, on a live wheel then you're looking in a better direction.
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For example wouldn't be more reasonable to bet the hottest number of any given cycle of 37 spins?
By saying hottest I mean the number with the most hits within a fixed number of spins, the hottest is very difficult to turn into frozen because the cooling down effect happens gradually and not suddenly.

Why only 37 spins?  You'd be better off chasing the hottest numbers after several thousand spins, but that would require some real effort.  Real effort is something that you're not willing to try.
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It's difficult for a number to disappear during the next cycle when on the previous has appeared more than any other, but it's not impossible.
No.  It can go from being the hottest number to instantly being the coldest.
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Most likely it will hit again at least once, that's what I call gradual cooling down effect, what is hot as fire cannot become ice immediately.
There is not always a gradual cooling.  There's simply an increasing spin sample, variance, and changing playing conditions on the live wheel.  Such conditions are where you should be looking for answers.
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So let's say I select the hottest and doesn't hit within the next cycle of 37 spins, how many times do you think the hottest numbers could turn suddenly in cold??
They can stay cold for as long as they'd like to stay cold.  In a pinch, don't chase them past 180 spins.  Wait for them to begin hitting again.
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Another important fact for numbers with 3+ hits within 37 spins is the gaps comparison from one hit to the next...
If for example the last gap is longer than the previous perhaps means that the particular number starts to fade away...on the contrary if the last gap is shorter than the previous probably is a positive indication.

You can't determine if a number is really "fading" or not.  However, on the live wheel you can tell if the current "playing conditions" are possibly changing too much.  For example the wheel speed, or the ball.

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Just remember, given the time roulette can and it will produce any result, that said the very next spin could never provide certainty for a win, even if you bet too many numbers.

All too often people foolishly try to hedge the negative expectation game.  The fewer numbers on which you bet, the greater chance you have of still being a winner after a large sample of spins.

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But the degree of certainty increases as the time expands, the more the time you wait for a certain outcome, the better it's probability.

Not sure what you're trying to say here, but numbers don't ever become "due to hit".  The probability of winning never changes based on what's hit in the past because the same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2016, 05:57:11 PM by Real »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Spread betting
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2016, 07:38:17 PM »
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So let's say I select the hottest and doesn't hit within the next cycle of 37 spins, how many times do you think the hottest numbers could turn suddenly in cold??

They can stay cold for as long as they'd like to stay cold.  In a pinch, don't chase them past 180 spins.  Wait for them to begin hitting again.

You got it wrong this one, what I mean is how many times/cycles by betting different numbers each time, not to stuck with a specific number for many spins/bets.

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Just remember, given the time roulette can and it will produce any result, that said the very next spin could never provide certainty for a win, even if you bet too many numbers.

[/color]All too often people foolishly try to hedge the negative expectation game.  The fewer numbers on which you bet, the greater chance you have of still being a winner after a large sample of spins.

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But the degree of certainty increases as the time expands, the more the time you wait for a certain outcome, the better it's probability.

Not sure what you're trying to say here, but numbers don't ever become "due to hit".  The probability of winning never changes based on what's hit in the past because the same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next.


You have misunderstood me, I was the one who said probability doesn't change, what I mean by saying expanding the event's horizon is that is one thing to expect 18 reds within 36 spins and completely another to expect 216 within 432 spins, in other words in short time the deviations from the mean could be huge, but in time tend to move closer to the mean while the amount of results growing.
 

Real

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Re: Spread betting
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2016, 08:20:28 PM »
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in other words in short time the deviations from the mean could be huge, but in time tend to move closer to the mean while the amount of results growing.

In the long term, on a live wheel the deviations can grow infinitely larger if bias is present.

  In the random game, the deviations bob up and down as the ratios appear to converge...even though the numeric differences can continue growing larger.  Furthermore the ratios do not always converge because the numbers begin hitting more than expectation.  They merely appear to converge because the sample size grows bigger.  When looking ahead to large samples, your expectation should be just that, expectation.

-Really
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Spread betting
« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2016, 09:59:25 AM »
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in other words in short time the deviations from the mean could be huge, but in time tend to move closer to the mean while the amount of results growing.

In the long term, on a live wheel the deviations can grow infinitely larger if bias is present.

  In the random game, the deviations bob up and down as the ratios appear to converge...even though the numeric differences can continue growing larger.  Furthermore the ratios do not always converge because the numbers begin hitting more than expectation.  They merely appear to converge because the sample size grows bigger.  When looking ahead to large samples, your expectation should be just that, expectation.

-Really

1) The majority of the roulette wheels are NOT physically biased

2) A tendency for deviations from the mean should never been considered equivalent and/or the effect of physically biased elements

3) The dominant numbers of a day/month/year don't stay the same for an eternity, these statistics are dynamic values which are changing more and more as the total duration/time grows.

To be good visual ballistic player you need perfect sight, to be a good strategic player you need vision...

Real, I will never agree with your biased views.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2016, 10:01:03 AM by BlueAngel »
 

Real

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Re: Spread betting
« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2016, 04:46:14 PM »
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1) The majority of the roulette wheels are NOT physically biased

How would you know, you've never tracked one for bias.  Every live wheel to some degree is indeed biased.  Most very subtly.  But bias is beside the point.  Did you miss the main part of the post?  It has to do with random wheels, not biased ones.  I simply mentioned the facts about the biased ones because had I not mentioned them, then you would have mentioned them.

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2) A tendency for deviations from the mean should never been considered equivalent and/or the effect of physically biased elements

 Never said it was.  But since you mention it, standard deviation calculations and chi square tests are used by players and casinos as a way to locate bias.  Perhaps you should read more on the subject, before you attempt to use terms and phrases, often out of context in a subject in which you know very little.

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3) The dominant numbers of a day/month/year don't stay the same for an eternity, these statistics are dynamic values which are changing more and more as the total duration/time grows.

  If a wheel was biased, then the best numbers may change from day to day, but in larger samples...such as months worth of data, they will bob up and down and remain at the top.     By the way, this is a subject where I am an expert.    Again, in the main post above I was largely addressing the "random game", not just biased wheels.
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To be good visual ballistic player you need perfect sight, to be a good strategic player you need vision...
What does this have to do with my post above?  In order to be a good paper airplane builder you need to be good at folding paper. So?

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Real, I will never agree with your biased views.

What you really mean to say is that you don't agree with my facts.  Which is ok.  I will likely never agree with your opinions.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2016, 05:05:51 PM by Real »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Spread betting
« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2016, 05:10:30 PM »
Real,

So we have an understanding and conclusion.

It's really weird how some frequenters of this forum have disappeared suddenly, persons who were writing every day for more than a year, I'm wondering why!

You and me Real are from the very few who are consistent so far.

On my next trip to LV, I'd like to challenge you on a live session at Bellagio's European wheel.
You may apply your best technique on your disposal without any explanations and the same for me as well.
We should discuss and agree about the duration and the bankroll limit if any.

How does it sound, interesting?
 

Real

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Re: Spread betting
« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2016, 05:12:38 PM »
When is your next trip?
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Spread betting
« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2016, 05:18:36 PM »
When is your next trip?

Unfortunately not in the near future, I could come on Summer but I dislike hot weather, thus it will be probably on the forthcoming autumn, most likely end of October/start of November.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Spread betting
« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2016, 02:16:43 PM »
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If a wheel was biased, then the best numbers may change from day to day, but in larger samples...such as months worth of data, they will bob up and down and remain at the top

Real,

Would you like to explain me why when from one day to the next results are not stable but in months are??

3 months for example are not including approximately 90 days??

I'm trying to understand your reasoning.