Author Topic: War Of 18/12  (Read 3748 times)

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thanked: 1003 times
War Of 18/12
« on: January 28, 2016, 06:07:14 PM »
           

This is an ingenious system that is based on the expectation of receiving only 12 splits appearing in 18 spins. 

Here we have the USA (uniques) fighting the British (repeaters) in a roulette simulation of this historic war.

Method

1) Spin the wheel once & bet the split that appears
2) Repeat this process, tracking the number of spins and bank balance, adding each split that appears



3) When a split hits just re-spin, adding the spin to the count
4) If you receive 6 total hits before reaching 18 spins then stop
5) Raise if necessary to stay in profit with a hit

Analysis

At first this system looks overly simplistic but then it is immediately apparent the genius -- A SPLIT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY AND EQUALLY A UNIQUE AND A REPEATER.

1) MISS 1U/1R 2 bet -1
2) MISS 2U/2R 4 bet -3
3) MISS 3U/3R 6 bet -6
4) MISS 4U/4R 8 bet -10
5) MISS 5U/5R 10 bet -12 *RAISE ALL 1U*
6) MISS 6U/6R  12 bet -24 *RAISE ALL 1U*
7) MISS 7U/7R  14 bet -38 *
8] MISS 8U/8R  16 bet     
« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 06:51:37 PM by Reyth »


 
The following users thanked this post: ianpbh

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1539
  • Thanked: 214 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2016, 06:25:12 PM »
I like the idea, thumbs up!:-)
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thanked: 1003 times
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2016, 06:30:00 PM »
LOL.  I knew you would.  It still appears vulnerable to 18 uniques but only 1/2 of the available uniques instead of 100% of the uniques with a pure repeater system?  So I guess the worst case scenario is we get 18 uniques in a row that are not in our splits.  What is that going be something like 1818?  I mean I have no idea...

Kind of hard to wrap my mind around this one but it seems that after the worst case scenario which is 9 losses in a row, the odds appear greatly in our favor to recoup before 18 spins are done.

One thing is for certain: 6 hits in 18 spins are not guaranteed, I just got 5.

Maybe the best strat is to start over at any profit?

I think its kind of an art to decide when to continue and when not to.  Also you can "take a spin out" if the odds aren't good; like for instance, if you have 2 hits expected in the next 7 spins, you can take a spin (or 2) out instead of starting over.

Here's an example of what I did:

1) -1      -1
2) -2      -3
3) -3      -6
4) -4      -10
5) -5      -15
6) -10   -25
7) +44   +19
8] +11   +30
9) +11   +41

At this point I expect 3 more hits in the next 9 spins which to me is not so great but with 41 units profit, the odds seem quite good to get a hit soon enough to at least stay in profit or advance my current profit, so I decided to stay in.

10) +11   +52

Now I only expect 2 hits in the next 8 spins which is quite poor.  Sure, I could have taken a spin or two out but I just decided to take my 52 units profit in 10 spins instead and start over.

I like how there is a certain "gambling art" to this system.  Assuming we will not hit table limits, it seems hard to lose with this...

« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 08:12:35 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1539
  • Thanked: 214 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2016, 07:37:52 PM »
I thought it might be better to do it with streets because this way keeps the proportion of repeaters to uniques to 1 to 2 like 12 to 24 instead of 1 repeater for every unique number.

After playing for about 25 spins I've encountered 8 different streets in 8 spins, on the 9th hit one of the 8 streets.
Is this ordinary sequence?
If not, then I just bump to it in just 25 spins approximately! ::)
By the way, the progression for such sequence will be:

-1 (1 x 1)
-3 (2 x 1)
-6 (3 x 1)
-10 (4 x 1)
-20 (5 x 2)
-44 (6 x 4)
-107 (7 x 9)
+1 (8 x 27)
 
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thanked: 1003 times
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2016, 08:15:34 PM »
Ok, I found this system on YouTube and the guy there DOES have a system for streets!

Let me post his parameters:

System based on concept that after 12 spins we will see that only 8 Street lines have come out.
Spin 1- 1 street come out
Spin 2- 2 street come out
Spin 3- 3 street come out
Spin 4- 4 street come out
Spin 5- 5 (different)street come out
Spin 6- 5 street come out
Spin 7- 6 street come out
Spin 8- 6 street come out
Spin 9- 7 street come out
Spin 10- 7 street come out
Spin 11- 8 street come out
Spin 12- 8 street come out


About progression, when you win you have to decrease of 1 unit on each street line, and if you lose you raise your bet of 1 unit for each street line. It is important to underline that I talk about raise of 1 unit, not to double....

So I tried it and I got too bogged down.  Let me compare with what you have said...

Yes, your progression is much more aggressive and I think its necessary.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 08:23:28 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thanked: 1003 times
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2016, 08:33:08 PM »
Btw, he has another one I KNOW you will like.

He has found a way to split the felt in half, GROUP A and GROUP B:

1) Spin until you have 18 unique numbers.  Those numbers are GROUP A.
2) The remaining numbers are GROUP B (19 total numbers).
3) You will now spin the wheel 18 times, starting with an empty spin (which counts in the 18 total spins).
4) If the spin lands in GROUP A then you bet GROUP B and vice versa.
5) If you lose double your bets and stay in the same group.
6) If you win, make another empty spin and continue like that until you have 18 additional spins.

Here we have a battle of the sleepers (GROUP B) & the actives (GROUP A) and an interesting concept of "balance" between the two groups where one group will not overly dominate in the next 18 spins. 

I however tend to believe that GROUP B is a liability and will tend to under-perform GROUP A.  It could be that just betting GROUP A is the way to go...?
« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 09:27:26 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1539
  • Thanked: 214 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2016, 08:49:54 PM »

Actually the way I played was for 1 win and then restart, but what if you ever encounter 9 different streets in 9 spins??
There would be problems with bankroll and table limit, that's why I figured out that if 1 win achieved till 9th spin (max 8 streets) it would be fine, but after you have to bet the 9th different street with 27 units, like all previous streets.
This way you don't raise the units per street but instead of 1 win, you are looking for 4  wins in a row.
If a loss occur before 4 wins, you lost 540 units.
You can keep those 9 streets as flat bet with 27 units each till their wins overcome the losses.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 12:22:01 AM by kav »
 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1539
  • Thanked: 214 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2016, 09:02:27 PM »
Btw, he has another one I KNOW you will like.

He has found a way to split the felt in half, GROUP A and GROUP B:

1) Spin until you have 18 unique numbers.  Those numbers are GROUP A.
2) The remaining numbers are GROUP B (19 total numbers).
3) You will now spin the wheel 18 times, starting with an empty spin (which counts in the 18 total spins).
4) If the spin lands in GROUP A then you bet GROUP B and vice versa.
5) If you lose double your bets.
6) If you win, make another empty spin and continue like that until you have 18 additional spins.

Here we have a battle of the sleepers (GROUP B) & the actives (GROUP A) and an interesting concept of "balance" between the two groups where one group will not overly dominate in the next 18 spins.  I however tend to believe that GROUP B is a liability and will tend to under-perform GROUP A.  It could be that just betting GROUP A is the way to go...?

Yes, it's interesting.
I've just recalled a similar from user "random", he was looking for how many repeats till 18 unique numbers.
If the repeats were relatively low, he was betting for the "unseen", if the repeats were high, he was betting the "seen"!
Group A seems to be slightly more possible, but in the remaining 18 spins you will find that there are not big differences and/or disadvantages,most of the time will be like anything between 40/60% distribution between those 2 groups.
Therefore what this guy recommends is sensible and I consider it better than backing only one of those 2 groups.
With a proper progression could become holy grail.
 

Rourke

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 101
  • Thanked: 17 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2016, 09:07:53 PM »
I've experimented with something similar, except I wait for 18 unique numbers not to have hit in 26 concurrent spins.

When this trigger occurs I bet the 18 numbers using labourchere. I'm currently fiddling with a Martingale progression, but I'm not sure I got the stomach for it :-)

So far I've only had positive results.

 

BlueAngel

  • I always express my opinion
  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1539
  • Thanked: 214 times
  • Gender: Male
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2016, 09:18:49 PM »
This is interesting too, but why within 26 spins and not in any spins' total?
To bet 18 unseen numbers within 26 spins means that there were 7 repeats, why do you prefer this way?
Actually 7 repeats in 26 spins is relatively low because 7 should occur in 21 and 8 in 24 spins, thus it's like you believe that the less than average repeats will continue to be less than average in the remaining spins till 37th.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 12:22:39 AM by kav »
 

Rourke

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 101
  • Thanked: 17 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2016, 09:31:02 PM »
I don't have a good explanation as to why it's 26 spins. I'm still in the experimenting phase so I'm trying my way around with different triggers.

I started with 18 unique numbers in 18 spins, but I had too many losses, so I gradually increased the trigger and so far 26 seems to be working.

I haven't thought about how many times you'll get a repeating number. Perhaps I should investigate this more.
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thanked: 1003 times
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2016, 09:33:48 PM »
Ok, brief intermission and back to the raging WAR!!!!

1) -100      -100
2) -200      -300
3) -300      -600
4) +1400   +800
=======================

So stage 1 complete at the lowest level of profit.  The goal is to increase that before 18 spins are up.

=======================
5) -400      +400
6) -500      -100
7) -600      -700
8] -700      -1400
9) +2000   +600
=======================

Here profit continues to be weak but expectation is good with 4 hits in the next 9 spins.

=======================
10) -800   -200
11) +900   +700
=======================

Again with low profit and now we have 3 hits expected in the next 7 spins which is acceptable.

=======================
12) -900   -200
13) -1000   -1200
14) +1600   +400
=======================

A turn of bad luck and I am facing a serious battle for the last 4 spins with 2 hits expected.  Since I am at 4 hits and I have never seen 4 hits in 18 spins, I feel confident to push on.

=======================
15) -1000   -600
16) +1400   +800
=======================

And I managed to match my original high, if you want to call it that but that's how the cookie crumbles....

I decide to start over as its not worth the risk with 5 hits in 18 spins being possible.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 09:45:28 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thanked: 1003 times
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2016, 10:18:15 PM »
Whoah I just saw only 4 hits in the last 18 spins.  I only ended up going down 43 units because that 4th number hit on the 18th spin.  Before that I was down 139 units and had the last bet missed I would of been down 389 units... O_o

I think the damage was worse because on the 14th spin I calculated 4 expected hits in the next 4 spins (I only ended up getting 2 hits) and so I DOUBLE RAISED and took two misses in a row.  Also, on the final spin I was up against table limits and couldn't make the full sized bet I wanted.

If I hadn't double raised, I think I would of ended up being fine.  Can't presume so much... 
« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 10:23:34 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thanked: 1003 times
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2016, 10:41:50 PM »
Here is an interesting gamble where I decided to use the "sit out" feature:

==========================
1) -1      -1
2) -2      -3
3) -3      -6
4) +14   +8
5) -4      +4
6) +13   +17
7) +13   +30
==========================

With only 3 hits expected in the next 11 spins and only 5 chips on the felt, it seemed like the perfect time to sit it out and see if the odds improve.  If I were to get a hit while sitting out, I would just take my 30 units profit and start over.

==========================
8] (-) [3/6 13/16 20/23 21/24 27/30]
9) (-)
==========================

Now the odds have improved a bit and even though they aren't the best, being up 30 units should give the extra room to possibly go up higher.

==========================
10) -7   +23
11) -8   +15
12) -9   +6
13) +8   +14
==========================

A run of bad luck and 2 hits expected in the next 5 spins.  I decided to gamble and hope for the best.

==========================
14) -10   +4
==========================

Not what I was looking for and things are starting to get extremely tight.  I decide to raise to increase what I will have left of my 30 unit profit.

==========================
15) +14   +18
==========================

And so things didn't quite work out the way I wanted them to but the "parlay option" is a pretty nice and exciting feature of this system. : )
« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 10:45:19 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thanked: 1003 times
Re: War Of 18/12
« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2016, 08:04:59 PM »
Finally ran the numbers on this and out of 16M rounds, the following occurs:

18 losses in a row do not occur
6 times 17 losses       
81 times 16 losses                                           <=== SYSTEM FAILURES
684 times 15 losses                                     
3645 times 14 losses
15234 times 13 losses 0.000952125 (99.9%)

51592 times 12 losses 0.0032245 (99.68%)
147266 times 11 losses 0.009204125 (99.08%)
364543 times 10 losses 0.0227839375 (97.72%)
794238 times 9 losses  0.049639875 (95%)
1543068 times 8 losses 0.09644175 (90%)
2718318 times 7 losses 0.169894875 (83%)
4366691 times 6 losses 0.2729181875 (73%)

The following progression is necessary: 1,1,1,1,1,2,3,...

1) -1   -1 (win 17)
2) -2   -3 (win 16)
3) -3   -6 (win 15)
4) -4   -10 (win 14)
5) -5   -15 (win 13)

=================
  RAISE ALL TO 2 UNITS
=================

6) -12 -27   (73%) (win 9)

=================
 RAISE ALL TO 3 UNITS
=================
7) -14  -41   (83%) (
8] -24  -65  (90%)

=================
 RAISE ALL TO 5 UNITS
=================

9) -45  -110 (95%)

=================
 RAISE ALL TO 9 UNITS
=================

10) -90  -200 (97.72%)

=================
 RAISE ALL TO 17 UNITS
=================

11)

Where things seem to start getting out of control.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2016, 11:50:03 PM by Reyth »