Author Topic: Even Chances Observations  (Read 1880 times)

BlueAngel

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Even Chances Observations
« on: January 26, 2016, 12:38:16 PM »
When you are looking at a matrix for EC statistics usually there is one pair greatly unbalanced, a pair with moderate deviation and the third to be approximately balanced.

What you see the moment you see it, it changes gradually and doesn't go on forever.
The point is to understand these changes in the flow of the results and adjust the betting accordingly.

Deviations grow as streaks' frequency and length increasing, what we call ''choppy'' is a tendency as the streaks but in opposite direction.
Both tendencies occur but not on the same time (for the same EC pair), therefore always there is one better option over the other.

The results have to maintain equilibrium not only on each pair but also between streaks and intermittences (in the long run)
A balance on a pair like Even / Odd could be obtained by streaks (first for one side and then for the other) or by intermittences (choppy).

An example of balanced pair by streaks is the following:
12, 28, 36, 20, 22, 2, 14, 30, 5, 27, 3, 35, 15, 7, 33, 31
Eight Even followed by eight Odd, streaks don't have to be equal in length, many smaller could equal fewer larger.

An example of balanced pair by intermittences is the following:
3, 26, 25, 4, 33, 20, 7, 28
Seven intermittences and four odd against four even in total.

If we could determined a limit to the extremes, then we could bet for the re-balance effect by backing the runner side against the dominant one.

The most unbalanced pair, any given time, favors the streaks.
The most balanced pair favors the changes.(intermittences & betting against the same sequence 'pattern breaker')
The third pair which is in the middle, it's better to be ignored because has no clear tendency.

By betting two out of three EC pairs you are betting for streaks and intermittences on the same time, also both of the two opposing sides on each pair.
But these two simultaneous bets are sharing a common balance which reflects the total success of the predictions.

If being wrong for -10 units, this clearly indicates that you need to change something and this is not the size of the bets.
You should aim to be victorious by increasing the odds' payout or by increasing prediction accuracy.
You may increase the payout by betting the eighteen numbers instead of the EC, you may increase accuracy by observing always the ratios of each EC pair as it's a constant work in progress.

When the most unbalanced pair becomes the middle (in term of its ratio) you should replace it, when the most balanced becomes the middle you should replace it, when the middle becomes most balanced or most unbalanced you should start betting on it properly.

If there are two middle pairs then ignore them both and bet only on the other, there will be always at least one pair ready for betting.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2016, 12:43:05 PM by BlueAngel »


 

Real

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Re: Even Chances Observations
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2016, 06:14:28 PM »
Blue,

Unfortunately it's embellished gambler's fallacy for reasons which you already know.

 

december

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Re: Even Chances Observations
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2016, 07:30:14 PM »
Blue,
Unfortunately it's embellished gambler's fallacy for reasons which you already know.

Mama is always right.
Yes, mam.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Even Chances Observations
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2016, 01:11:20 PM »
Blue,

Unfortunately it's embellished gambler's fallacy for reasons which you already know.

Why don't you let us know how you bet?
Other than useless comments and criticism you have nothing else to share.
 

Rourke

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Re: Even Chances Observations
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2016, 06:52:25 AM »
Hi Blue

I'm not quite sure I understand what you mean. Could you provide a series of numbers and then an example on how and when you would place your bet?

Thanks :-)
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Even Chances Observations
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2016, 12:34:51 PM »
Hi Blue

I'm not quite sure I understand what you mean. Could you provide a series of numbers and then an example on how and when you would place your bet?

Thanks :-)

You are writing down results or watching the matrix in order to check the deviations of each EC pair separately.
After 37 outcomes check for the EC pair which is the most unbalanced, bet with same as last selection for this pair.

Also check for the most balanced EC pair and bet it with opposite of the last selection.

Ignore the third EC pair.

If there isn't any EC with 14 or less appearances (40% or less) within the last 37 results, don't bet.
If there is no EC pair which has 5% or less difference (17/20 or 18/19) within the last 37 results, don't bet.

 

BlueAngel

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Re: Even Chances Observations
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2016, 06:06:16 PM »
Hi Blue

I'm not quite sure I understand what you mean. Could you provide a series of numbers and then an example on how and when you would place your bet?

Thanks :-)

You are writing down results or watching the matrix in order to check the deviations of each EC pair separately.
After 37 outcomes check for the EC pair which is the most unbalanced, bet with same as last selection for this pair.

Also check for the most balanced EC pair and bet it with opposite of the last selection.

Ignore the third EC pair.

If there isn't any EC with 14 or less appearances (40% or less) within the last 37 results, don't bet.
If there is no EC pair which has 5% or less difference (17/20 or 18/19) within the last 37 results, don't bet.

When you write the 38th result delete the 1st in order to have a constant 37 spin cycle in rolling basis.
When you write the 39th delete the 2nd and so on...change the stats accordingly after each and every spin.