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Author Topic: A Bastard Bet  (Read 3141 times)

Rourke

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A Bastard Bet
« on: January 25, 2016, 07:36:11 PM »
Hi

I've been following the post "High ratio corner bet" by Yolo: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php/topic,697.0.html

And it got me thinking. What if we could combine this four bet strategy with BlueAngels post on 1 unit profit: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php/topic,694.0.html

Basically we track numbers until 33 has hit. Then we start betting on the remaining 4 numbers using the progression 4,4,4,4,8,8,8,8,12,12,12,12,16,16,16,16...

The steps are as follows:
1. Spin and track numbers until 33 numbers have hit
2. Bet one unit on the last 4 numbers that hasn't been hit with the above progression
3. WIN :-) Or loose :-( And start a new game

I've enclosed 2 x 10.000 spin results with way different results. The first session is a winner, but the second session you loose terrible.

The results are divided into the following columns:
Spin: Number of spins
Game: The game being played
Bet: The bet being played
Win/Loss: The result of your bet
Balance: Your overall balance, starting from 500

Let me know what you think :-)

- James
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 10:03:08 PM by kav »


 

december

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2016, 08:06:00 PM »
The first session is a winner, but the second session you loose terrible.

You've said it all.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2016, 09:06:39 PM by december »
 

Rourke

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2016, 08:44:49 PM »
Yeah... But the second session didn't happen right away... I had to run the simulation 6-7 times before I could generate a loosing session.
 

Reyth

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2016, 10:24:31 PM »
Well, assuming no bugs this is very good!

What we need to do is examine the losing sequence and figure out the way to abort it or stay in longer until our numbers hit.  It might also be helpful to allow a negative balance so we can see exactly when they DO hit so we know by how much we missed. ; )
 

Rourke

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2016, 11:17:46 PM »
Hi Reyth

There are no bugs this time :-)

I'm not quite sure what you mean by a negative balance? Could you elaborate?

Thanks :-)
 

Reyth

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2016, 11:38:22 PM »
Ok I am assuming that when we hit 0 balance the simulation ends as a bust?

Instead, let it run indefinitely negative so we can see EXACTLY WHEN our numbers actually hit so that we know by how much we missed it?
 

Rourke

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2016, 06:10:09 AM »
No - The simulation continues even though your banroll is negative.

Spin   Game   Bet   Status   Win/Loss   Balance
87524   Game 991   4   WIN   36   132
87463   Game 990   28   WIN   252   96
87462   Game 990   28   LOOSE   -28   -156
87461   Game 990   28   LOOSE   -28   -128
87460   Game 990   24   LOOSE   -24   -100
87459   Game 990   24   LOOSE   -24   -76
87458   Game 990   24   LOOSE   -24   -52
87457   Game 990   24   LOOSE   -24   -28
87456   Game 990   20   LOOSE   -20   -4
87455   Game 990   20   LOOSE   -20   16
87454   Game 990   20   LOOSE   -20   36
87453   Game 990   20   LOOSE   -20   56
87452   Game 990   16   LOOSE   -16   76
87451   Game 990   16   LOOSE   -16   92
87450   Game 990   16   LOOSE   -16   108
87449   Game 990   16   LOOSE   -16   124
87448   Game 990   12   LOOSE   -12   140
87447   Game 990   12   LOOSE   -12   152
87446   Game 990   12   LOOSE   -12   164
87445   Game 990   12   LOOSE   -12   176
87444   Game 990   8   LOOSE   -8   188
87443   Game 990   8   LOOSE   -8   196
87442   Game 990   8   LOOSE   -8   204
87441   Game 990   8   LOOSE   -8   212
87440   Game 990   4   LOOSE   -4   220
87439   Game 990   4   LOOSE   -4   224
87438   Game 990   4   LOOSE   -4   228
87437   Game 990   4   LOOSE   -4   232

I've attached another 100.000 spins
 

Reyth

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2016, 08:43:50 AM »
Well.  In the face of variance that we cannot directly conquer (definition of roulette but we need to prove it to ourselves first) a compromise must be made using some or all of the following:

1) Taking a temporary loss in order to regain that loss as soon as possible -- instead of letting variance break us, we flow with the variance until it passes.

2) Betting only a small target range -- identify the highest percentage of success which is at the beginning of odds redundancy and bet only up to (or close to) that point.

3) Extending the progression as far as possible -- try to create levels in the progression that extend out farther than the variance can take you.  This will involve #1.

4) Extending the bankroll as far as possible -- don't be afraid of relying upon penny tables, they can be the crucible of your great success.
 

Rourke

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2016, 10:16:53 AM »
Hi Reyth

I've converted my simulation to a HTML/Javascript page for you to play around with.

There are 3 variables you can set:

1. Number of spins
2. Start balance
3. Progression - How many losses until we step up the progression. I think the ideal number is 3.

Let me know if you have any questions.
 

Rourke

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2016, 10:31:11 AM »
Just another idea... Why stop betting after you won on the 4th number. Why not try winning playing the last 3 numbers as well... And then the last 2 numbers and so forth.

After all... We've spend a lot of time getting to bet on 4 numbers, so why not get the most of it.

I'll try an incorporate such a bet into my simulation.
 

Reyth

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2016, 10:45:06 AM »
Wow!  Very nice!!

I would bump up the progression number to the very highest it possibly can acceptably be and then examine the win rate?

(this is extending the progression as far as possible which will increase the win rate).
 

Rourke

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2016, 11:20:08 AM »
I've updated the simulation to bet all 4 numbers until each of them win.

The bet amount in each number will remain the same, but the numbers where you'll place your bet wil decrease.

An example of this would be:

Spin   Game   Bet   Status   Result   Balance
83    Game 1    1    LOOSE    -4    496
84    Game 1    1    LOOSE    -4    492
85    Game 1    1    LOOSE    -4    488
86    Game 1    2    LOOSE    -8    480
87    Game 1    2    LOOSE    -8    472
88    Game 1    2    WIN    72    544
89    Game 1    2    LOOSE    -6    538
90    Game 1    3    LOOSE    -9    529

After you win (marked green) your betting amount on each number (2) will remain the same. But since you only bet on 3 numbers now, your total amount will therefore be 6 (marked red)
« Last Edit: January 26, 2016, 11:22:30 AM by Rourke »
 

Reyth

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2016, 11:23:04 AM »
Nice.  Has this affected the win rate or ongoing balance?
 

december

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2016, 11:34:58 AM »
Maybe when 2 left, it's time to stop?
As opposite as the original idea of start when 2 left!

Thanks for testing, geeks!
 

Rourke

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Re: A Bastard Bet
« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2016, 12:55:42 PM »
Yes Reyth - There is a huge difference.

I've tested with a 1.000 numbers from Random.org on both systems.

If we stop after our first win we'll end up with a postive bankroll. If we bet all 4 numbers, we'll end up with a negative bankroll.

I tried playing on only 2 numbers, like December suggested and that also gave a negative bankroll. So I quess the 1 number bet is the way to go.

I'll do some more testing with more numbers from Random.org when I get home tonight.