Author Topic: Reyth's Repeater  (Read 2481 times)

Reyth

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Reyth's Repeater
« on: January 23, 2016, 08:00:42 PM »


1) Track each spin and bet each repeater as it appears
2) Raise to keep in profit

(total accrued loss+total bet)/35 = number of units for each stack (round up)

This formula becomes flawed when the chip stacks rise higher.  Use the attached app to avoid this problem; it re-checks the bet amount based on the new raise.

3) Start over with one hit

So far 3200 units seems safe.

I like to keep things fresh and so when I start over, I only read the last 10 spins and track them before starting the new session.

What is interesting about this approach is that each new session has a different bet selection & progression.

The theory is that once you have an identified repeater, the Law of the Third gives it a 66% chance of appearing within the next 37 spins.  This method collects groups of such numbers which eventually forces the appearance of a number within the group; basically this is a system for choosing numbers that are more likely not to sleep.

With 16M repeaters tracked, the average number of spins for a repeat to occur is 3.  Therefore we can construct the following "average" progression and bet selection:

1st repeater  (base chance: 65%)  > 1x3 = -3 units (3 spins) (series chance: 7.89%)
2nd repeater   (base chance: 88%) > 2x3 = -6 = -9 units (6 spins) (series chance:  28.37%)
3rd repeater   (base chance: 96%) > 3x3 = -9 = -18 units (9 spins) (series chance: 53.27%)
4th repeater  (base chance: 99%) > 4x3 = -12 = -30 units (12 spins) (series chance: 83.98%)

5th repeater (base chance: 99.6%) >10x3 = -30 = -60 units (15 spins) (series chance:  88.69%)


There are possible variations where we can wait until there are 3 un-hit repeaters before starting to bet, which means we would not bet until we had a base chance of winning (on the spot) of 53.27%.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2016, 01:06:53 AM by Reyth »


 

Reyth

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2016, 09:39:40 PM »
Session #1 Classic Roulette (23 Jan 21:34) 232 spins +505 units

So not Speedy Gonzalez or anything but running about 300 units an hour or 2 units a spin.

Session #2 Classic Roulette (23 Jan 23:29) 276 spins +509 units, +1014 units overall

Session #3 Classic Roulette (24 Jan 5:07) 533 spins +532 units, +1546 units overall

This session was marred by a horrendous betting mistake where I accidentally hit "repeat bet" with 10 stations at 10 units each and placed a bet that lost.  I was sorely tempted to continue on and just reclaim the win at the 10x ratio but I heard Harry J's voice and he told me to ignore the mistake and make it up the normal way; the problem with this of course is that I have never heard Harry J actually speaking before... O_o

Anyway, the spin numbers will be skewed because of this.

Session #4 Classic Roulette (24 Jan 9:57) 409 spins +454 units, +2000 units overall

This session suffered from a very bad draw-down & a failed attempt to quickly gain back the loss.  The lowest point was right at -3200 units and was the worst draw-down I have seen so far.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2016, 10:06:53 AM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2016, 02:41:50 AM »
Session #1 Classic Roulette (23 Jan 21:34) 232 spins +505 units

So not Speedy Gonzalez or anything but running about 300 units an hour or 2 units a spin.

Session #2 Classic Roulette (23 Jan 23:29) 276 spins +509 units, +1014 units overall

If you need approximately 2200 units and more or less you rake 550 per session, then after fourth successive session you would gamble with casinos money thereafter.
Once I saw 18 repeaters just before 1 of them gain a third hit, could be Monte Carlo event though.
Are you playing it on 1cent casino, if you do then expand the progression a bit in order to cover 18 repeaters, just in case.
Have you noticed the similarity with the first time numbers to repeat, the ''simple system'' by Dr Talos, have you?
Actually I've used and tested it extensively before even dr Talos posted it here and my conclusions are the same as his about it.
It goes around by the name ''cyber highroller'' and it has plenty of variations...!
 

Reyth

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2016, 05:28:00 AM »
Once I saw 18 repeaters just before 1 of them gain a third hit, could be Monte Carlo event though.

Well its not necessarily that bad depending on how many spins it took to obtain the 18 repeaters?

Quote
Are you playing it on 1cent casino, if you do then expand the progression a bit in order to cover 18 repeaters, just in case.

Thanks for the heads up.  I will expand the progression out to 18 stations using the average of 3 spins to obtain a repeater.  Also its worse than I have projected, there is an error where I am obtaining repeaters in a single spin instead of raising at the current chip levels because a repeater hasn't hit yet.

Quote
Have you noticed the similarity with the first time numbers to repeat, the ''simple system'' by Dr Talos, have you?
Actually I've used and tested it extensively before even dr Talos posted it here and my conclusions are the same as his about it.
It goes around by the name ''cyber highroller'' and it has plenty of variations...!

No I just stumbled across this on Youtube and somehow the "essential nature" of this betting arrangement (i.e. betting large groups of inside numbers as a reliable way to earn at a high ratio) clicked with my experience in roulette and I decided to run with it.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2016, 05:32:32 AM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2016, 05:40:15 AM »
Quote
Well its not necessarily that bad depending on how many spins it took to obtain the 18 repeaters?

It took 45 to 50 spins, repeaters don't happen within a fixed number of spins, that's very important!
 

Reyth

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2016, 05:41:50 AM »
Of course not but because this system always produces a different bet selection & progression, the only way to estimate the results is to use the average.

I can tell if that was a Monte Carlo event by running the max gap for repeaters.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2016, 05:49:45 AM »
Of course not but because this system always produces a different bet selection & progression, the only way to estimate the results is to use the average.

I can tell if that was a Monte Carlo event by running the max gap for repeaters.

I'm almost certain it was ''Monte Carlo event''.
The same extreme event has happened with 18 unique numbers before a single repeat.
Seems that this 18 to be the limit in both cases.
 

Reyth

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2016, 07:50:03 AM »
Well that's good to know.  Thanks. : )
 

Reyth

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The Worst Drawdown
« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2016, 08:48:10 PM »
===================================================================
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:20) (1)
Number
21
Bets   Bet   Win
24 , 17 , 14   0.03   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:20) (2)
Number
11
Bets   Bet   Win
24 , 17 , 21 , 14   0.04   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:20) (3)
Number
1
Bets   Bet   Win
24 , 17 , 11 , 21 , 14   0.05   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:20) (4)
Number
1
Bets   Bet   Win
24 , 17 , 11 , 21 , 14   0.05   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:20) (5)
Number
8
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 14   0.06   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:21) (6)
Number
25
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 14   0.06   0.00
===================================================================

This is the opening section, where bets are made without having to raise above 1 unit per station.  In this case this section was made shorter because we started off betting 3 numbers.  I think this is a potential warning sign of a bad session. 

I am not sure if ending the opening with 6 stations is good or bad.

===================================================================
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:21) (7)
Number
6
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 14   0.12   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:21) [8]
Number
16
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 14   0.12   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:21) (9)
Number
9
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 14   0.12   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:22) (10)
Number
18
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 14   0.18   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:22) (11)
Number
28
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 14   0.18   0.00
===================================================================

Here is stage two where we have multiple spins without having to raise.  Here we have languished with no improvement beyond the initial 6 units.  I think this is a symptom of starting off with too many units in the beginning because it raises the bet amounts too fast without developing the necessary misses that will foster proper bet growth in the more expensive stages.

===================================================================

Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:23) (12)
Number
18
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 28 , 14   0.28   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:23) (13)
Number
23
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 28 , 14   0.40   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:24) (14)
Number
33
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 28 , 14   0.48   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:25) (15)
Number
6
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 21 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 28 , 14   0.64   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:26) (16)
Number
4
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 21 , 6 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 28 , 14   0.99   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:27) (17)
Number
10
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 21 , 6 , 24 , 1 , 11 , 28 , 14   1.26   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:28) (18)
Number
2
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 21 , 6 , 24 , 1 , 10 , 11 , 28 , 14   1.90   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:29) (19)
Number
9
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 21 , 6 , 24 , 1 , 10 , 11 , 28 , 14   2.60   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:30) (20)
Number
20
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 9 , 21 , 6 , 24 , 1 , 10 , 11 , 28 , 14   2.86   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:32) (21)
Number
27
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 28 , 21 , 6 , 24 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 1 , 14   4.73   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:35) (22)
Number
30
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 21 , 6 , 1 , 24 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 28 , 14   6.92   0.00
Classic Roulette (24 Jan 8:36) (23)
Number
17
Bets   Bet   Win
17 , 18 , 11 , 21 , 6 , 24 , 1 , 9 , 10 , 28 , 14   9.78   32.04
===================================================================

Only 23 spins and we are betting over 50% of our remaining bankroll.  The ideal situation is where misses accumulate in the beginning when things are very inexpensive and repeats accumulate later which dramatically increase the chances of hitting in the later stages when misses are very expensive. 

A miss that doesn't generate a repeat is what kills this system because it is the large number of units that we bet that helps drives wins IN COMBINATION with the fact that they are the numbers with the best chances to win.

I think the solution here is to avoid starting a session with too many repeaters by spinning the wheel until no repeaters appear in the last 10 spins and play completely fresh.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2016, 08:59:13 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2016, 07:21:06 AM »
Session #5 Classic Roulette (25 Jan 7:12) 151 spins +85 units +2085 units overall

The software is raising the amounts faster now but it is still not properly calibrated.  What this has brought me to realize is that I am most likely swimming in very deep waters and do not realize it; the numbers are raising too fast and I am encountering too many "deep runs" in too short of a time period.

Either a larger balance is necessary or some form of compromise with only betting a small range.

Not sure what I am going to do now but I am going to stop this method.
 

december

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2016, 07:29:06 AM »
Yes, this method has nice Ups, but when you start getting new and new qualifiers, no way you can come out happy.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2016, 08:18:59 AM »
Session #5 Classic Roulette (25 Jan 7:12) 151 spins +85 units +2085 units overall

The software is raising the amounts faster now but it is still not properly calibrated.  What this has brought me to realize is that I am most likely swimming in very deep waters and do not realize it; the numbers are raising too fast and I am encountering too many "deep runs" in too short of a time period.

Either a larger balance is necessary or some form of compromise with only betting a small range.

Not sure what I am going to do now but I am going to stop this method.

If you feel the need to get covered against any possible sequence, then an ENORMOUS progression must be deployed.
Another way which I've seen from someone is to raise the units per repeater according the total number of repeaters you are betting.
For example you are betting 1 number with 1 unit, 2 numbers with 2 units each, 3 numbers with 3 units each...etc
If your win comes early or near the middle of the road, you should be in profit, later you just minimizing the total loss.
He claims that the most of the times you will come out on top, while minimizing the total loss from late hits.
 

Reyth

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Re: Reyth's Repeater
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2016, 09:33:22 AM »
Very interesting!  Thanks for that info Blue!