Author Topic: Just coincidence?!  (Read 10189 times)

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BlueAngel

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Just coincidence?!
« on: January 17, 2016, 10:02:55 PM »

I don't know if you ever had the feeling that the results are working against your bets...

I have this feeling on 95% of my sessions, let's say that no matter what you bet, your bets were always flat, would you think that could make you overall winner?
As long as results contain proportionally less wins than loses, nobody can be winner without a progression.

My point is that it's not about unfair payouts, this is minor issue in comparison with unfair results.
Why I'm calling them unfair?
Simply because cannot be 95% of the times proportionally more negative than positive.

For example let's take the EC's bet, one time you arrive at the table,you see less appearances on one side and you back it till there are approximately equal decisions from both sides and this never happens, the next time you decide to back the side with more appearances and again you are wrong because this time the trend changes towards the other side.

And such situations happen like 95% of the time, it would be more reasonable if there was a higher percentage of times which you have proportionally more wins than loses, I don't mean this to occur more than 50% because it's unrealistic if you consider the unfair payouts too, BUT it could happen something like 40% or 35% or 30% or even 20% of all times!

But this is not the case regardless of the bet selection one may choose, which makes me think if this is just my impression or you have similar results, do you??

Am I realistic when I expect at least one fifth or one quarter of my overall sessions have to contain proportionally more wins than loses??!


 

BlueAngel

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2016, 10:27:03 PM »
Let me put it this way, would it be reasonable to assume that 55% of all our sessions would go on the negative side,while 45% of our total sessions would go on the positive side??

How many positive sessions do you have on average??

BY SAYING POSITIVE I DON'T MEAN THAT YOU HAVE WON BY USING A PROGRESSION, I MEAN THAT YOU COULD HAVE WON WITH FLAT BETS BECAUSE YOUR SELECTION APPEARED MORE THAN ITS PROBABILITY!

How many sessions you would have won by betting only flat stakes??

Is it normal that the variance works almost always against the player regardless if the player is betting against or with the flow of results??

Regardless if you are betting 1 number or an EC, how come like 95% of the times force you to use progressions?!

Am I wrong?
 

Reyth

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2016, 10:40:32 PM »
Well clearly our wonderful dear AP friends are correct when they say that it is a negative expectation game.  This is why even the best bet selection will eventually need progression help.  Its just they take it too far and say the game cannot be beaten because of the extra number and unequal payouts.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2016, 10:44:16 PM »
Even if we had the fortunate situation of 45% sessions to be on the positive side, we would be overall losers without the application of some kind of progression!

But what really happens is even worst than this and I'm asking you for one more time;
Is it normal?
Perhaps I have unreasonable expectations and I would like somebody to explain me why I'm wrong!
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2016, 10:54:29 PM »
Well clearly our wonderful dear AP friends are correct when they say that it is a negative expectation game.  This is why even the best bet selection will eventually need progression help.  Its just they take it too far and say the game cannot be beaten because of the extra number and unequal payouts.

Reyth, what you just said covers a tiny part of the whole truth!
Yes,it's a negative expectation game, BUT if this was ONLY because of the unfair payouts or house edge if you will, it would reflect much less on the negative total.
What I'm trying to say is that the house edge is trying to "mask" something much more ugly than the unfair payouts!
I'd still be a loser if ONLY this was the case, BUT not like this...!

I'm assuming Reyth that you are confirming this kind of feeling...just imagine yourself if you could only bet flat for
ALL of your sessions, you could still select any bet sector you want, HOW MANY SESSIONS WOULD YOU WIN REYTH??!
 
 

Reyth

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2016, 12:10:49 AM »
LOL betting flat?  Man that would be so frustrating.  I would certainly lose.  Of course variance is the real culprit.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2016, 12:29:23 AM »
LOL betting flat?  Man that would be so frustrating.  I would certainly lose.  Of course variance is the real culprit.

Not only you but approximately the 99% of the world's players.
 

scepticus

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2016, 12:44:46 AM »
LOL betting flat?  Man that would be so frustrating.  I would certainly lose.  Of course variance is the real culprit.

Normally I do Flat Bets and profit  .It depends on the given odds and your Bet Selection and with  short sessions.
If betting a progression it is an even-money bet of 1pt.on an EC -if lose again bet 1pt if lose bet 2pts on third bet.Stop at a win - obviously. Total table bet for this is 4pts. but stop at a 3x1pt win.
The key IS Bet Selection and  with a good Bet Selection you don't need a progression with a 5/4 shot or above.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2016, 12:52:07 AM »
LOL betting flat?  Man that would be so frustrating.  I would certainly lose.  Of course variance is the real culprit.

Normally I do Flat Bets and profit  .It depends on the given odds and your Bet Selection and with  short sessions.
If betting a progression it is an even-money bet of 1pt.on an EC -if lose again bet 1pt if lose bet 2pts on third bet.Stop at a win - obviously. Total table bet for this is 4pts. but stop at a 3x1pt win.
The key IS Bet Selection and  with a good Bet Selection you don't need a progression with a 5/4 shot or above.

Why are you lying??
Of course you are using progression of 80 to 90 units total.
Suddenly you7 became the wizard of flat betting?!
Don't fool yourself Scep!
 

scepticus

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2016, 01:22:37 AM »
LOL betting flat?  Man that would be so frustrating.  I would certainly lose.  Of course variance is the real culprit.

Normally I do Flat Bets and profit  .It depends on the given odds and your Bet Selection and with  short sessions.
If betting a progression it is an even-money bet of 1pt.on an EC -if lose again bet 1pt if lose bet 2pts on third bet.Stop at a win - obviously. Total table bet for this is 4pts. but stop at a 3x1pt win.
The key IS Bet Selection and  with a good Bet Selection you don't need a progression with a 5/4 shot or above.

Why are you lying??
Of course you are using progression of 80 to 90 units total.
Suddenly you7 became the wizard of flat betting?!
Don't fool yourself Scep!
I am not the wizard of flat betting .
What progressionof80 or 90 ? Like many I juggle about with ideas.
As for lying I did offer Mike to give him a LIVE demonstration ! THAT would prove that you are way over the top with your accusations .
I am accused of lying by you-I am accused  of being ignorant by AP so sod off the lot of you . If you don't understand what I am about - fine. Feel free to talk about your millions, billions gazilions of spins for testing. What the hell good are they if you will never bet that amount ? Sod all.
Have a nice day- week - month year- I'm off !
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2016, 01:34:34 AM »
LOL betting flat?  Man that would be so frustrating.  I would certainly lose.  Of course variance is the real culprit.

Normally I do Flat Bets and profit  .It depends on the given odds and your Bet Selection and with  short sessions.
If betting a progression it is an even-money bet of 1pt.on an EC -if lose again bet 1pt if lose bet 2pts on third bet.Stop at a win - obviously. Total table bet for this is 4pts. but stop at a 3x1pt win.
The key IS Bet Selection and  with a good Bet Selection you don't need a progression with a 5/4 shot or above.

Why are you lying??
Of course you are using progression of 80 to 90 units total.
Suddenly you7 became the wizard of flat betting?!
Don't fool yourself Scep!
I am not the wizard of flat betting .
What progressionof80 or 90 ? Like many I juggle about with ideas.
As for lying I did offer Mike to give him a LIVE demonstration ! THAT would prove that you are way over the top with your accusations .
I am accused of lying by you-I am accused  of being ignorant by AP so sod off the lot of you . If you don't understand what I am about - fine. Feel free to talk about your millions, billions gazilions of spins for testing. What the hell good are they if you will never bet that amount ? Sod all.
Have a nice day- week - month year- I'm off !

I've read about your progression at your website.
Also you have posted on this topic about your betting and your bankroll...
Unless you want everybody to believe about your suggested progressions, but you are doing otherwise when you gamble.
Either way makes no sense, goodbye & good luck.
 

scepticus

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2016, 04:44:14 PM »
LOL betting flat?  Man that would be so frustrating.  I would certainly lose.  Of course variance is the real culprit.

Normally I do Flat Bets and profit  .It depends on the given odds and your Bet Selection and with  short sessions.
If betting a progression it is an even-money bet of 1pt.on an EC -if lose again bet 1pt if lose bet 2pts on third bet.Stop at a win - obviously. Total table bet for this is 4pts. but stop at a 3x1pt win.
The key IS Bet Selection and  with a good Bet Selection you don't need a progression with a 5/4 shot or above.

Why are you lying??
Of course you are using progression of 80 to 90 units total.
Suddenly you7 became the wizard of flat betting?!
Don't fool yourself Scep!
I am not the wizard of flat betting .
What progressionof80 or 90 ? Like many I juggle about with ideas.
As for lying I did offer Mike to give him a LIVE demonstration ! THAT would prove that you are way over the top with your accusations .
I am accused of lying by you-I am accused  of being ignorant by AP so sod off the lot of you . If you don't understand what I am about - fine. Feel free to talk about your millions, billions gazilions of spins for testing. What the hell good are they if you will never bet that amount ? Sod all.
Have a nice day- week - month year- I'm off !

I've read about your progression at your website.
Also you have posted on this topic about your betting and your bankroll...
Unless you want everybody to believe about your suggested progressions, but you are doing otherwise when you gamble.
Either way makes no sense, goodbye & good luck.
Just a quick riposte before I finally leave this forum.
You claimed I use a progression using an 80/90 bank. I am not awaretha
 

december

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2016, 04:58:37 PM »
Pity that you decide to leave us, your comments were useful...
 

Reyth

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2016, 05:01:14 PM »
Scep ain't leaving. : D
 

petespin

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Re: Just coincidence?!
« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2016, 08:04:55 PM »
i have to add that its all about the betselection u currently use and if keep u in balance, when u have more wins than losses ,then its a sure thing that u ll win using flatbet , i  bet that way [double dozens] and end up positive all the time , not big amounts, but  its ok when we are talking about roulette ! remeber, not a completely mechanical system could work long term, so u have to make your own  decicions, and to have a very good bet selection ...