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Author Topic: Variance Formula?  (Read 2118 times)

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Reyth

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Variance Formula?
« on: January 12, 2016, 10:43:17 PM »
Something interesting I might have encountered.  Taking two systems and comparing them, both with the same percentage chances of success results in more variance for the system with the LEAST number of spins to achieve the desired percentage.

One system wins 92% of the time within 16 spins while the other wins 92% of the time within 92 spins.  Even though they both have the same percentage chance of winning, the first system encounters wild variance swings while the second system remains steadily consistent.

You know I think this is connected to the same principle that changes the expected odds when say, you simulate a single EC bet with 4 DS spins.  The 4 spins have over a 50% chance of hitting BUT 6 times THREE equals 18 not FOUR; something changes with the odds when you change the win criteria on the felt??

I think the extra spins provides a "variance buffer" where the variance is lessened over the greater length of spins because each spin has less relevance to the odds of hitting.

Another way of putting this is that one system's 92% does not equal another system's 92% in short term performance.  Each percentage point must also be measured in the number of the spins of the wheel?

Very interesting.  Short term odds are like a magnifying glass which magnifies results which will only return to their proper proportion in the long term view...

Maybe this is somehow related to Dobble's "short run theory"...?
« Last Edit: January 12, 2016, 11:00:10 PM by Reyth »


 

BlueAngel

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Re: Variance Formula?
« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2016, 11:03:18 PM »
Something interesting I might have encountered.  Taking two systems and comparing them, both with the same percentage chances of success results in more variance for the system with the LEAST number of spins to achieve the desired percentage.

One system wins 92% of the time within 16 spins while the other wins 92% of the time within 92 spins.  Even though they both have the same percentage chance of winning, the first system encounters wild variance swings while the second system remains steadily consistent.

You know I think this is connected to the same principle that changes the expected odds when say, you simulate a single EC bet with 4 DS spins.  The 4 spins have over a 50% chance of hitting BUT 6 times THREE equals 18 not FOUR; something changes with the odds when you change the win criteria on the felt??

I think the extra spins provides a "variance buffer" where the variance is lessened over the greater length of spins because each spin has less relevance to the odds of hitting.

Congratulations for discovering the undisputable truth, for example if for an EC can get as low as less than 70 hits out of 200 outcomes just imagine the proportionally equivalent for singles...!
It's becoming impractical in terms of time and money, EC's contain the most numbers one bet can have that's why even in the event of extreme deviations could be managed within 6 (222 spins) up to 9 cycles (333 spins) with a proper progression.
I have to admit that I truly believe that the most important element in a strategy is not the progression, but what I've posted on topic fallacious holy grail proved me wrong, or at least proved that there is an exception to every rule!
 

Reyth

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Re: Variance Formula?
« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2016, 11:59:47 PM »
Right I think the most important feature is the bet selection but that doesn't just mean the numbers we play.  It comprises several factors such as:

1) How many numbers
2) Cost per spin
3) Payout per win

The bet selection is the foundation for the betting strategy.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Variance Formula?
« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2016, 12:16:53 AM »
Right I think the most important feature is the bet selection but that doesn't just mean the numbers we play.  It comprises several factors such as:

1) How many numbers
2) Cost per spin
3) Payout per win

The bet selection is the foundation for the betting strategy.

I completely agree!
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Variance Formula?
« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2016, 09:32:18 AM »
The hit percentage and the win percentage are different things.
A betting method is a combination of a system and a bet selection.Calculations for a mixex bet are very difficult. Every sytem has the feature to have a profit within a short run sample. The number of spins are updredictable. Occur an unexpexted even from a long run sample  you shall have a loss.For excample  a 5 red event has an expectation of once in 32 spins. Occur within these 32 spins an event of 10 red you have a problem.