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Author Topic: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall  (Read 5865 times)

Reyth

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Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« on: January 07, 2016, 03:20:33 PM »
                                           

This is a new system by the creator of D'Alembert Avenue.  It generates profit less quickly but he is claiming a 92% win rate (which I have yet to verify).  The twist is a positive counter that mirrors the negative one which delays raising of the chip levels subsequent to a win.  Of course the DS gives a significant advantage over the EC bets.

The basic progression is 5 bets on a DS at 1 unit and then raise 1 unit out to 15 when the progression ends for a total bankroll of 600 units. 

Upon a win you subtract 5 from the five bet counter; e.g. if a number hits on the 3rd bet and the chip level is 3, you then change the bet counter to -2 (a mirror) and the chip level to 2.  The chip level automatically goes down by 1 after every hit.  If your bankroll shows a profit, always reset the chip level and counter.

Sample Session

result<>bet counter<>chip level

miss<>1<>1
miss<>2<>1
miss<>3<>1
miss<>4<>1
miss<>5<>1

miss <>1<>2
miss <>2<>2
miss <>3<>2
miss <>4<>2
miss <>5<>2

miss <>1<>3
hit    <>-4<>2 <=== Mirror

miss <>-3<>2
miss <>-2<>2
miss<>-1<>2
miss <>1<>2
hit <>-4<>1

hit<>-5<>1
hit <>1<>1 [back at profit]

I made this sample session up based on a recent session I just had.  It does not take into account actual profit levels but demonstrates how the counters change based on betting results.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2016, 03:55:30 PM by Reyth »


 

rotaman

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2016, 03:39:44 PM »
Of course the DS gives a significant advantage over the EC bets.

Reyth,

I'm not sure what you mean by this. If betting on three DS's yes it does (equivalent to 18 numbers) assuming you're playing the American wheel, but not for a Euro wheel (assuming no la partage or en prison rule applies). If playing less than 3 DS's then the payoff is greater on a win, certainly, but then you will win proportionately fewer times than if betting on an EC. Not trying to disrupt the thread but just looking for clarification...
 

Reyth

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2016, 03:54:11 PM »
Thanks for asking.  It is a VERY important point because it is the basis of all his systems. 

If you were to apply this system to an EC bet, your chances of winning on each spin would be 48.65% because of the house edge and your payout would be 1:1.  This is clearly a losing proposition just based on the house edge, not taking into account variance.

Now compare this with betting using the DS.  A DS pays 5:1 and so we are spinning 5 times as the equivalent of the EC bet of 1:1 payout.  However, instead of a 48% chance of hitting, our odds are actually 58.72% which is an improvement of 10.07% in win rate. 

Comparing the payout we have the following:

5:1 (+400%)
5:2 (+300%)
5:3 (+200%)
5:4 (+100%)
5:5 (+0%)

So clearly the double street gives a significant and reliable advantage over the EC bets.  Even though this is a much greater advantage than the house edge over an EC bet, it is not sufficient to defeat variance which is the real cause of casino losses (assuming competent betting).

This is where he applies the mirror system and is claiming a 92% win rate.  I will be verifying this at some point.

« Last Edit: January 07, 2016, 03:57:24 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2016, 04:19:16 PM »
Quote
our odds are actually 58.72%

How did you arrive to that result??
Any line has a 16.66% chance to appear, in 6 spins you have 100% (minus 2.7% for single 0 roulette)

So where is this advantage because I cannot find it?!

I've posted and answered already Reyth why is better to bet straight up numbers rather than ANY other section, it has to do with the total of numbers covered, or in other words probability, and the payout.

So yes, betting 3 lines is better than betting an EC, BUT not for the reasons described above.
 

rotaman

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2016, 04:28:55 PM »
I think Reyth means that the chance of at least one hit on a DS in 5 spins is 59% (rounded up).
« Last Edit: January 07, 2016, 04:34:41 PM by rotaman »
 

Reyth

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2016, 04:42:27 PM »
Yes of course each bet type as you move deeper inside is better and more efficient but the DS is nice because it allows you to only have to spin the wheel 5 times for the equivalent of an EC bet (in worst case payout odds).

Quote
our odds are actually 58.72%
How did you arrive to that result??

I spun the wheel 16M times and counted the number of hits within 5 spins and the total was 58.72% of all hits generated.  If you were to ask me where 48.65% lies, I would of told you that it would of been in 3 spins (18 numbers bet, in 3 sets of 6) but in actuality, using real spins, it doesn't work out that way for some reason.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2016, 04:47:48 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2016, 04:53:32 PM »
Quote
Yes of course each bet type as you move deeper inside is better and more efficient

This is not the only advantage, also it's much more flexible and versatile.
 

Reyth

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2016, 04:54:40 PM »
Ok kewl ya I am excited about creating systems that are based on this advantage. : )
 

YoLo

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2016, 02:42:33 PM »
Hi reyth, what about using this system on single street each level. Have you considered it? I also see this method of him just several days ago. If we use ds, the profit do not go up fast. It really slow.
 

Reyth

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2016, 03:03:24 PM »
Ya I have tried this system a bit and I am not a big fan of the "lagging".  The reason it happens is because the "mirror" uses the profits to lengthen the progression and thus keep the bankroll requirements as low as possible, which is why he created this system.

I am still playing Bullseye with a slightly modified progression of 92 steps, it has a 91.96% chance of hitting each time.  It is simply that a single number is more efficient than a street because the payout is higher for the numbers covered; i.e. 35-1 vs 33-1.  A split would be better than a street at 34-1.
 

Harryj

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2016, 03:46:40 PM »


    Reyth,
            Let me get this straight. You are betting on a single DS with this progression ? Not  3 DS.

       I like the economy of capital.
     
       My DS progressions have been of  the martingale type. ie each win clears the line. That type of progression goes up quite rapidly after about 12 spins.

    Harry
 

Reyth

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2016, 03:47:57 PM »

Correct.  We are getting better odds and payout to bet the DS 5 times to represent a single EC spin.

I really love the DS and like you say in 12 spins its like 88% chance to hit!

This class of systems uses a D'Alembert progression model and this one is special because it uses the profit to delay the progression and keep the bankroll requirement low.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2016, 03:53:01 PM by Reyth »
 

Harryj

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2016, 05:12:47 PM »


    The idea is thrifty on capital as long as the hits come at reasonable intervals. It is a little slow on recovery but it does get there.

   BUT ! If you run into  a sleeper, you end up in trouble. the bet reduces too fast. You end up back at 1 unit with a substantial deficit. It is too slow to clear a large drawdown.

    I suggest that the bet only reduces if the win comes in the 1st  2 or 3 spins in each 5 spin section. That speeds up recovery and allows the progression to do it's work.

     It is of course dangerous if you run into a second sleeper before you clear the line, but that is very rare. I found a card with a 24 spin sleeper. It would not clear in  the normal way, but by maintaining the bet level if the hit didn't come quickly. I was able to clear it in a reasonable time.

     Harry
« Last Edit: January 10, 2016, 12:35:34 PM by Harryj »
 

Reyth

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2016, 05:21:13 PM »
   BUT ! If you run into  a sleeper, you end up in trouble. the bet reduces too fast. You end up back at 1 unit with a substantial deficit. It is too slow to clear a large drawdown.

Yes, I noticed this too which made me wonder if it was a mechanism to draw losses when numbers were sleeping?

   
Quote
I suggest that the bet only reduces if the win cons in the 1st  2 or 3 spins in each 5 spin section. That speeds up recovery and allows the progression to do it's work.

Interesting idea!  Sort of creates the opportunity to "surf about" if you feel the numbers are coming in.

   
« Last Edit: January 09, 2016, 05:26:01 PM by Reyth »
 

Real

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Re: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2016, 08:51:37 PM »
Mirror mirror on the wall, which system is the most ridiculous of them all?