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Author Topic: double numbers  (Read 4071 times)

spins

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double numbers
« on: January 02, 2016, 06:47:43 AM »
knowing that a number will repeat with in 20 spins or close enough 1995/5 , what would be the best way to expoit this fact ! 


 

Real

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2016, 07:01:53 AM »
Just bet the last number that hit.
 

spins

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2016, 07:16:35 AM »
I dare say this is exactly what you're looking for over a long period of time and so u do acknowledge this as a fact, but not sure y u would bet last spin do u mean first of the 20 or something else
« Last Edit: January 02, 2016, 08:26:07 AM by spins »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2016, 09:54:47 AM »
knowing that a number will repeat with in 20 spins or close enough 1995/5 , what would be the best way to expoit this fact !

I don't understand why a number must repeat in 20 spins??
Any given number could be repeated in 1 spin or after 600 spins, where this 20 spins came from??

I used to say that if a number has delayed then when it comes back would compensate for the missing time BUT this is not always the case...
I have experimented a lot with numbers, so believe when I'm telling you!

Also I've focused on the frequency of appearences of any given number but I couldn't withdraw any practical conclusions.
For example a number appeares after 90 spins, then hits again after 60 spins, at this moment would it be reasonable to think that its next hit will be lower than 60 spins??
The short answer is no, because I've seen in numerous occasions numbers' frequency to go up and down, back and forth, without any steady increase and/or decrease.
So where this 20 spins frequency is coming from?!
 

december

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2016, 10:45:59 AM »
I think that the idea is that after 19 unique numbers, its about time that one number repeats?
 

BlueAngel

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2016, 12:00:22 PM »
I think that the idea is that after 19 unique numbers, its about time that one number repeats?

If this is the case then do you know how long you should wait before you see 18 or 19 different/unique numbers??
Too long!
That's why I don't consider it practical and good idea.
 

spins

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2016, 08:55:10 PM »
this is based on the fact that, with in any 20 number sequence there will be a double number maybe the 1st and 17th or, 4th and 10th, there maybe 2 or 3 doubles in a set of 20 but definitely 1, statistics show this to occur 1995/5, in which case past results do have effect on present ones, now just working on a way to exploit this fact     
« Last Edit: January 02, 2016, 10:10:49 PM by spins »
 

palestis

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2016, 01:09:05 AM »
I think that the idea is that after 19 unique numbers, its about time that one number repeats?
The likelihood of a repeat in 18 spins is extremely high.
Wait for 12 unique numbers and bet those for 6 spins or until one of them hits.
You only lose if the repeat/s are from the new numbers (not the original 12), and if it happens, it is extremely rare that this scenario will repeat in the next consecutive trigger( 12 unique numbers). You can also save $$ by using 2 virtual losses, so you only bet 4 spins. Also some of the 12 numbers can be combined in splits, streets or Quads.
With a good B/R you can't lose.
Or does someone believe that 12 unique numbers will turn to 18 unique numbers in five consecutive tries? Or the repeats will be from the new numbers, again, for many consecutive trials?
Rare events do not come in packs. Otherwise they wouldn't be rare.
 

spins

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2016, 01:26:25 AM »
interesting approach I was looking at 12, but at that point if it does not win add the 13th and so on, will definitely look in you're thinking, seems like u may need a smaller b/r, thanks for the info, just started looking at this, y five consecutive tries is this based b/r or house limit ?     thanks spins   
 

palestis

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2016, 02:09:54 AM »
interesting approach I was looking at 12, but at that point if it does not win add the 13th and so on, will definitely look in you're thinking, seems like u may need a smaller b/r, thanks for the info, just started looking at this, y five consecutive tries is this based b/r or house limit ?     thanks spins
One way of doing it is to add every new non repeated number in the betting scheme. That's more bulletproof than sticking with the original 12 numbers. But expect a lesser payout. And of course a larger risk.
Personally I am allergic to betting too many numbers, and my limit is usually 12 numbers.
The 5 consecutive tries was just an example. It has nothing to do with the house limit, because 5 tries will not surpass the house limit. I figure a decent B/R should be able to withstand 5 bites from the black swan.  But I bet my life on it that you will never get into a 5 consecutive loss situation in the next 1000 years. Whether that loss came from the 12 unique numbers becoming 18, or if there is any repeat it will be from the new numbers and not the original 12. But in your case it doesn't apply if you add the 13th ,14th number etc.
When I was testing it I never run into more than 2 consecutive losses. Even that was very rare and came after several consecutive wins. Hardly any damage.
Another version is to have 12 unique numbers and bet only he last 5 or 6. Dropping  the older number and add the freshest  one. So you only bet the last 5 or 6 numbers.
 

spins

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2016, 02:39:30 AM »
I havn't got to much more to add to this, but honestly believe this is exploitable in a few different ways, I will spend time on finding the best of them and post thoughts soon thanks for you're help, another good sign this works is that REAL hasn't chimed in with his usual comments   
 

Harryj

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2016, 01:38:58 PM »
     
      Spins it is an interesting statistic, although I cannot offer any verification, the Rule of Thirds seems to build as it moves toward a complete cycle. Thus :-

    In 12 spins 2 repeats(should be 4)
    In 18 spins 4-5 repeats (6)
    in 24 spins 7-8 repeats (8+)
    in 30 spins 10 repeats (10)
    in 37 spins 13-14 repeats (12+)

     I have rarely used single numbers so I can't vouch for this. It does seem to have merit and offer possibilities for exploitation.

    Harry
 

BlueAngel

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2016, 03:13:59 PM »
     
      Spins it is an interesting statistic, although I cannot offer any verification, the Rule of Thirds seems to build as it moves toward a complete cycle. Thus :-

    In 12 spins 2 repeats(should be 4)
    In 18 spins 4-5 repeats (6)
    in 24 spins 7-8 repeats (8+)
    in 30 spins 10 repeats (10)
    in 37 spins 13-14 repeats (12+)

     I have rarely used single numbers so I can't vouch for this. It does seem to have merit and offer possibilities for exploitation.

    Harry

You misinterpret law of thirds, if what you wrote was true then with the same logic we would see within any 3 spins cycle 1 repeat, of course this is far away from truth.
The explanation is quite simple, the proportion, or ratio if you prefer, between "repeaters" and "sleepers" is not fixed but dynamic.
In other words the more numbers have appeared, the more repeaters we should expect, as one category increases so does the other proportionally.
A good indicator could be the first third, I mean the first 12 spins, if "law of thirds" would was a fixed value, then we should encounter 4 repeaters within first 12 spins, this is not impossible but it's not the average expectation.
I consider average 1 to 2 repeats within the first 12 spins, of course none is possible too but not what usually happens.
My main focus is in what happens the majority of times and not for the exceptions of the rule.
So if you encounter 0 or 3,4,5 (5 repeats within first 12 spins most I've seen) repeaters within 12 first spins, it could be an indication for fewer or more frequent repeats in the next 24 spins.
0 repeats is not so rare as is 4 or 5 repeats within first 12 spins.
The fewer the repeats on the first third, the fewer will be on the following 24 spins, the more the repeats, then  more frequent within next 24 spins.
Speaking in numbers, consider 2 repeats as the most average result, thus an indication for 22 up to 24 unique numbers and 15 up to 13 repeats/sleepers.
Consider 1 repeat as indicator for 24 to 25 different numbers and 13 to 12 repeats/sleepers.
You should think in proportions / ratios terms.

 

BlueAngel

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2016, 04:19:30 PM »
Guys I've to admit that I commit gambler's fallacy with my previous post, I'm not kidding.
Perhaps it's not completely false BUT, thought about if I was seating down the table and record 12 spins,made my conclusions and then another player sits down and his first 12 spins is my second 12 spins, would that changed what we see??
Let's say I record 1 repeat during MY first 12 spins and the other player records 3 repeats in HIS first 12 spins, then we would expect different things...besides the expectation of repeats increases for the second 12 spins, so if we had 24 spins with just 4 repeats, it would be an increase from 1 to 3 but 4 repeats are few for 24 spins, not impossible of course.
My conclusion is that if you use the first 12 spins as indicator, then you have to bet for the next 24 spins in order to make a difference because the other player would play 12 common spins with me (24th to 36th) plus 12 different.
Seems to confusing without such rock solid base, don't you think?
Perhaps a better way would to play for 1 repeat within 12 spins, for example I record 7 unique numbers without repeat and bet them, another 8th different number hits, I bet that too, 9th different and I add it to my bet selections...
7 + 8 + 9 + 10 = 34 if 11th different number then add it and place 2 chips on each number...
34 + 22 = 56 if 12th different number without repeat, then bad luck and wait for the next 7 unfolded numbers to start the progression.
With 7 numbers you gain 29 units
With 8 numbers you gain 21 units
With 9 numbers you gain 12 units
With 10 numbers you gain 2 units
With 11 numbers you gain 18 units

If there is only one repeat within 7 spins, there are 2 options:

1) Bet the same way as you would if there wasn't any repeat.
2) Wait for 7 unique numbers within last 7 spins

What do you think?
 

Harryj

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Re: double numbers
« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2016, 10:31:19 AM »
     
      Spins it is an interesting statistic, although I cannot offer any verification, the Rule of Thirds seems to build as it moves toward a complete cycle. Thus :-

    In 12 spins 2 repeats(should be 4)
    In 18 spins 4-5 repeats (6)
    in 24 spins 7-8 repeats (8+)
    in 30 spins 10 repeats (10)
    in 37 spins 13-14 repeats (12+)

     I have rarely used single numbers so I can't vouch for this. It does seem to have merit and offer possibilities for exploitation.

    Harry

You misinterpret law of thirds, if what you wrote was true then with the same logic we would see within any 3 spins cycle 1 repeat, of course this is far away from truth.
The explanation is quite simple, the proportion, or ratio if you prefer, between "repeaters" and "sleepers" is not fixed but dynamic.
In other words the more numbers have appeared, the more repeaters we should expect, as one category increases so does the other proportionally.
A good indicator could be the first third, I mean the first 12 spins, if "law of thirds" would was a fixed value, then we should encounter 4 repeaters within first 12 spins, this is not impossible but it's not the average expectation.
I consider average 1 to 2 repeats within the first 12 spins, of course none is possible too but not what usually happens.
My main focus is in what happens the majority of times and not for the exceptions of the rule.
So if you encounter 0 or 3,4,5 (5 repeats within first 12 spins most I've seen) repeaters within 12 first spins, it could be an indication for fewer or more frequent repeats in the next 24 spins.
0 repeats is not so rare as is 4 or 5 repeats within first 12 spins.
The fewer the repeats on the first third, the fewer will be on the following 24 spins, the more the repeats, then  more frequent within next 24 spins.
Speaking in numbers, consider 2 repeats as the most average result, thus an indication for 22 up to 24 unique numbers and 15 up to 13 repeats/sleepers.
Consider 1 repeat as indicator for 24 to 25 different numbers and 13 to 12 repeats/sleepers.
You should think in proportions / ratios terms.

     Having called me stupid, you go on to say much the same as I did ! Except with a lot more bumph !  Had you bothered to read my  post correctly you would have realised the point I was making, was that the power of "Thirds" seems to increase with larger samples. Thus  with small samples it is best to underestimate "Thirds" slighty. Over 24 spins overestimate very slightly.

       Having seen 7 unique numbers a bet is a good chance. If there has been no hit at spin 12 . Then 12 to 18 would warrant a larger bet. Over 18 spins the  B/R needed  increases rapidly. I would only bet if the average was well down.

       Harry